NFLX vs WBD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery are both major streaming video companies but in very different financial and strategic positions. Netflix is the profitable, debt-free streaming leader with 260M+ subscribers compounding earnings. WBD is a highly leveraged media conglomerate with excellent content (HBO, Warner Bros.) struggling to execute its streaming strategy while managing $40B+ in merger debt and declining linear TV revenue.
NFLX vs WBD is the profitable, scale-leading global streaming compounder (Netflix) versus the highly leveraged media conglomerate with premium IP but execution and debt challenges (Warner Bros. Discovery) — Netflix is a quality compounder; WBD is a distressed value/recovery bet.
NFLX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WBD has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+48.66% vs -40.56%), though NFLX has the better forward P/E setup (21.39x vs 411.00x for WBD). NFLX leads on both revenue growth (13.40%) and operating margin (33.38%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NFLX (+14.61%) than for WBD (+3.64%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the world's leading streaming company with 260M+ subscribers, growing ARPU, and a nascent advertising revenue layer
- value Netflix's debt-free balance sheet and increasing free cash flow as content spending matures and subscriber scale monetizes
- want streaming entertainment exposure with the best subscriber economics and the most comprehensive international presence
- are comfortable with US subscriber saturation and the arms race with Disney+, Apple TV+, and Amazon Prime requiring continued $17B+ content spending
- prefer a distressed media value play with exceptional IP (HBO, DC, Warner Bros., Harry Potter) at depressed valuation due to debt overhang
- value Max's HBO premium content as genuinely differentiated from Netflix's volume-based originals in producing consistent critically-acclaimed series
- want potential recovery upside if debt reduction allows WBD to reinvest in streaming — the IP value significantly exceeds current market cap
- are comfortable with significant operating leverage on debt, linear TV secular decline risk, and the uncertainty of executing streaming growth while servicing merger debt
| Metric | NFLX | WBD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 58.0 | 42.2 |
| AI ranki | #210 | #960 |
| Latest closei | $71.79 | $27.80 |
| 1M returni | -10.51% | -2.56% |
| 6M returni | -21.75% | +0.62% |
| 1Y returni | -40.56% | +48.66% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NFLX | WBD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.94K (-40.6%) started 2025-09-18 | $14.87K (+48.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $12.48K (+24.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $10.69K (+6.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $73.21K (+632.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $11.32K (+13.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NFLX | WBD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $340.28B | $72.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.70 | 93.00 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.39 | 411.00 |
| Price/Salesi | 13.15 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.19 | 2.82 |
| Analyst targeti | $93.66 | $29.82 |
| Target upsidei | +14.61% | +3.64% |
| Metric | NFLX | WBD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.40% | -11.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 11.10% | -90.60% |
| EPS growthi | +11.10% | -90.60% |
| FCF margini | +52.49% | +44.77% |
| Operating margini | 33.38% | 5.10% |
| Profit margini | 28.22% | -8.77% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.54% | -8.79% |
| Return on equityi | 49.54% | -8.79% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.51 | 1.56 |
| Debt/equityi | 55.24 | 94.20 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 0.78 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.92 | 0.41 |
Over the past year, NFLX and WBD have moved barely in opposite directions (correlation of -0.06), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NFLX | WBD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -40.56% | +48.66% |
| CAGRi | -40.58% | +48.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 897.44% | 25.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | 1.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 8.02 | 2.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.04% | 15.68% | |
| Current drawdowni | 42.17% | 7.27% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.82% | 6.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 29.93% | 7.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 90.03% | 3.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 9.95% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +24.76% | +6.88% |
| CAGRi | +4.53% | +1.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 403.98% | 52.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.20 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.33 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.69% | 78.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.39% | 10.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.75% | 47.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.39% | 53.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 90.03% | 19.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 24.68% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +632.10% | +13.24% |
| CAGRi | +22.03% | +1.25% | |
| Volatilityi | 286.73% | 47.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.59 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.69% | 91.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.39% | 64.02% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.37% | 50.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.35% | 59.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 90.03% | 27.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 45.77% |
| Category | NFLX | WBD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Netflix, Inc. | Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Entertainment | Entertainment |
| Core business | Netflix is the world's leading subscription streaming service with 260M+ subscribers globally. Netflix produces original content (Stranger Things, The Crown, Squid Game) and licenses content from studios, delivered to subscribers for a monthly fee. It launched an ad-supported tier and has aggressively addressed password sharing, converting household sharees into paying subscribers. Netflix's scale advantage — spending $17B+ annually on content — creates an original content library that smaller services cannot match. | Warner Bros. Discovery was created from the merger of WarnerMedia (AT&T) and Discovery in 2022. It operates Max streaming (HBO, Warner Bros., Discovery content), Warner Bros. film studios, CNN, HBO, TNT, TBS, the Discovery Channel, Food Network, HGTV, and other linear TV networks. WBD is attempting to create a sustainable streaming business from its Max platform while managing declining linear TV revenue and significant merger debt ($40B+) from the highly leveraged Discovery/WarnerMedia combination. |
| Investor focus | Investors track subscriber count, average revenue per membership (ARM), paid net additions, content spending efficiency, and advertising tier contribution as Netflix grows its ad-supported segment. | Investors track Max subscriber count, streaming ARPU, linear TV revenue decline, free cash flow for debt reduction, and whether Max can achieve profitability before linear TV cash flows deteriorate significantly. |
- Global scale at 260M+ subscribers provides content investment leverage — Netflix can amortize $17B+ content spend across more subscribers than any competitor
- Password sharing crackdown successfully converted shared accounts to paying accounts — a one-time conversion that added millions of new subscribers
- Ad-supported tier creates a third monetization layer (subscription + engagement ads) that could generate billions in additional revenue as advertisers compete for premium audiences
- Max has exceptional content with HBO (Succession, House of the Dragon, The Last of Us) — among the highest-quality premium content brands in streaming
- Warner Bros. film studio generates theatrical revenue (Batman, Harry Potter, DC) providing revenue diversification beyond streaming
- Content library is among the most valuable in media — DC Comics, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones provide multi-decade IP monetization
- Subscriber growth in the US is near saturation — international markets must provide growth but monetize at lower ARPU
- Content spending arms race with Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, and Amazon Prime Video requires continuous $17B+ annual content investment
- Linear TV bundling and password crackdown benefits are one-time events — sustaining above-market subscriber growth after these tailwinds requires continued content excellence
- $40B+ in debt from the Discovery/WarnerMedia merger requires enormous free cash flow generation for debt repayment, constraining content and streaming investment
- Linear TV decline (CNN, TNT, TBS ratings and advertising) is structurally accelerating — cord-cutting reduces the cash cow that historically funded WBD's content investments
- Max subscriber growth has lagged Netflix and Disney+ — WBD struggles to compete on streaming investment while simultaneously servicing merger debt
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