VICI vs MGM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
VICI Properties and MGM Resorts both derive value from the casino and resort industry, but VICI Properties operates as a real estate landlord collecting contractual rent from casino operators, while MGM Resorts directly operates integrated resort properties and captures the full upside and downside of casino and hospitality operating performance.
VICI offers exposure to predictable, contractual rental income from casino real estate with a substantial dividend, while MGM offers exposure to direct casino and resort operating performance including Las Vegas and Macau market dynamics. The decision depends on whether you prefer landlord-like income stability or operator-level upside and risk.
VICI holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MGM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-4.59% vs -16.64%), though VICI has the better forward P/E setup (8.65x vs 20.44x for MGM). VICI leads on both revenue growth (5.70%) and operating margin (70.18%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VICI (+25.63%) than for MGM (+19.74%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want predictable, contractual rental income from casino and resort real estate
- Value a substantial dividend supported by the REIT structure's distribution requirements
- Prefer landlord-like income stability over direct operating performance exposure
- Are comfortable with returns depending on tenant operator credit quality rather than casino operating upside
- Want direct exposure to casino, hotel, and entertainment operating performance
- Value a diversified portfolio spanning Las Vegas Strip, regional, and Macau properties
- Believe Macau gaming market recovery will continue to support international growth
- Prefer operator-level upside potential over landlord-like income stability
| Metric | VICI | MGM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 37.2 | 38.0 |
| AI ranki | #1484 | #1384 |
| Latest closei | $25.00 | $30.56 |
| 1M returni | +10.38% | +0.26% |
| 3M returni | -5.80% | -31.33% |
| 6M returni | -11.00% | -20.08% |
| 1Y returni | -16.64% | -4.59% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VICI | MGM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.31K (-16.9%) started 2025-11-03 | $9.51K (-4.9%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $12.34K (+23.4%) started 2021-11-03 | $6.28K (-37.2%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $28.75K (+187.5%) started 2018-01-02 | $13.33K (+33.3%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VICI | MGM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $28.48B | $10.82B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.03 | 25.62 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.65 | 20.44 |
| Price/Salesi | 8.57 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 11.34 | 2.19 |
| Analyst targeti | $32.50 | $50.63 |
| Target upsidei | +25.63% | +19.74% |
| Metric | VICI | MGM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.70% | 1.00% |
| Earnings growthi | -41.40% | 519.40% |
| EPS growthi | -41.40% | +519.40% |
| FCF margini | +6.52% | +4.95% |
| Operating margini | 70.18% | 6.79% |
| Profit margini | 67.50% | 2.40% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.85% | 18.92% |
| Return on equityi | 9.85% | 18.92% |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.98% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 83.80% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.69 | 1.30 |
| Debt/equityi | 60.28 | 893.31 |
| Current ratioi | 11.24 | 1.33 |
| Quick ratioi | 11.23 | 1.21 |
Over the past year, VICI and MGM have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.22), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VICI | MGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -16.92% | -4.89% |
| CAGRi | -16.97% | -4.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.46% | 39.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.10 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.51 | -0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.44% | 46.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.38% | 39.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.80% | 10.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.57% | 16.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.11% | 10.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.52% | 18.97% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +1.02% | -37.22% |
| CAGRi | +0.20% | -8.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.04% | 40.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.10 | -0.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.14 | -0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.60% | 49.33% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.32% | 39.96% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.99% | 23.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.37% | 25.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.74% | 13.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.39% | 20.36% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +81.85% | +25.55% |
| CAGRi | +7.00% | +2.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.13% | 46.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 0.27 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.21% | 80.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.32% | 39.96% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.28% | 21.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.71% | 25.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.64% | 33.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.68% | 60.51% |
| Category | VICI | MGM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | VICI Properties Inc. | MGM Resorts International |
| Sector | Real Estate | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | REIT - Diversified | Resorts & Casinos |
| Core business | A real estate investment trust that owns a portfolio of casino, hospitality, and entertainment properties leased to operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. | An integrated resort operator managing casino, hotel, and entertainment properties primarily on the Las Vegas Strip and other domestic markets, along with international operations including a stake in Macau gaming operations. |
| Investor focus | Rental income growth and lease escalator structures, tenant credit quality and rent coverage ratios, and acquisition activity expanding its property portfolio. | Las Vegas Strip revenue per available room and gaming revenue trends, Macau gaming market recovery and regulatory environment, and progress on digital and sports betting initiatives. |
- Triple-net lease structure shifts operating expenses and capital expenditure responsibilities to tenants, supporting predictable rental income
- Long-term lease agreements with built-in rent escalators provide visibility into future rental income growth
- As a REIT, the company is generally required to distribute the majority of its taxable income, supporting a substantial dividend
- Diversified portfolio of Las Vegas Strip and regional properties provides scale and brand recognition within the integrated resort operating market
- Direct exposure to casino gaming, hotel, food and beverage, and entertainment operations captures the full upside of resort performance
- International Macau exposure provides a growth avenue tied to the recovery and expansion of the broader Asian gaming market
- Revenue depends on the financial health and rent-paying ability of its tenant operators, concentrating tenant credit risk
- As an owner rather than an operator, the company does not directly capture upside from casino operating performance beyond contractual rent
- Interest rate sensitivity affects both borrowing costs for acquisitions and the relative attractiveness of REIT dividend yields to investors
- As an operator rather than a property owner in many cases, results are directly exposed to consumer discretionary spending and travel demand cycles
- Macau operations are subject to regulatory and geopolitical considerations specific to that gaming jurisdiction
- Capital-intensive integrated resort operations carry ongoing maintenance and renovation capital expenditure requirements
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on VICI and MGM. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside VICI and MGM, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.