CTO vs SPG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG is the dominant, large-scale leader in premier mall and outlet real estate, while CTO is a much smaller, growth-focused REIT concentrated in open-air shopping centers in southern U.S. growth markets. The comparison highlights vastly different scales within the broader retail REIT sector.
CTO vs SPG contrasts a small-cap, opportunistic open-air shopping center REIT against the largest, most established mall and premium outlet operator in the U.S.
SPG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CTO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+30.12% vs +26.15%), though SPG has the better forward P/E setup (31.24x vs 31.90x for CTO). SPG leads on both revenue growth (19.50%) and operating margin (46.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CTO (+24.37%) than for SPG (+8.16%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to smaller-scale, growth-market open-air retail real estate
- See value in CTO's higher percentage growth potential from a smaller base
- Are comfortable with higher volatility and lower trading liquidity
- Want exposure to the highest-quality U.S. malls and premium outlets
- Value Simon's scale, balance sheet strength, and capital access advantages
- Prefer a larger, more established, more liquid retail REIT investment
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.6 | 42.2 |
| AI ranki | #1789 | #989 |
| Latest closei | $20.09 | $221.73 |
| 1M returni | -2.19% | +10.34% |
| 3M returni | -7.33% | -3.24% |
| 6M returni | +2.46% | +10.03% |
| 1Y returni | +30.12% | +26.15% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.91K (+39.1%) started 2025-11-03 | $12.55K (+25.5%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $27.13K (+171.3%) started 2021-11-03 | $20.11K (+101.1%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $52.87K (+428.7%) started 2016-11-03 | $33.97K (+239.7%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $741.46M | $80.34B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.44 | 14.94 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.90 | 31.24 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 10.20 |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.61 | 14.17 |
| Analyst targeti | $24.60 | $228.89 |
| Target upsidei | +24.37% | +8.16% |
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.50% | 19.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -12.50% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -12.50% |
| FCF margini | +22.66% | +37.39% |
| Operating margini | 25.42% | 46.02% |
| Profit margini | 32.63% | 66.57% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.50% | 120.51% |
| Return on equityi | 8.50% | 120.51% |
| Dividend yieldi | 7.68% | 4.21% |
| Payout ratioi | 135.71% | 62.10% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.63 | 1.33 |
| Debt/equityi | 99.35 | 503.50 |
| Current ratioi | 2.98 | 0.27 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.25 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, CTO and SPG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.49), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +28.43% | +25.51% |
| CAGRi | +28.54% | +25.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.76% | 19.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.20 | 1.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.86 | 1.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.01% | 16.52% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.22% | 6.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.84% | 4.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.01% | 6.54% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.40% | 3.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 4.30% | 6.70% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +66.14% | +62.19% |
| CAGRi | +10.69% | +10.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.71% | 25.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.50 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.47% | 45.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.22% | 6.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.54% | 13.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.57% | 18.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.78% | 10.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.91% | 15.68% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +160.35% | +93.63% |
| CAGRi | +10.05% | +6.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.00% | 37.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.46 | 0.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.85% | 75.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.22% | 6.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.24% | 17.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.99% | 24.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.34% | 26.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.13% | 55.74% |
| Category | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Simon Property Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Diversified | REIT - Retail |
| Core business | CTO Realty Growth is a small-cap REIT that owns and operates open-air shopping centers and other retail and mixed-use properties across the southeastern and southwestern United States. | Simon Property Group is the largest U.S. mall REIT, owning and operating premier shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use properties, focused on high-quality, well-located retail real estate. |
| Investor focus | Investors track CTO's acquisition pace and cap rates, occupancy and leasing spreads at its shopping centers, and its dividend coverage given its smaller, externally-focused growth strategy. | Investors track Simon's occupancy rates, releasing spreads (rent growth on new leases versus expiring ones), and tenant sales productivity across its mall and outlet portfolio. |
- Focused, opportunistic acquisition strategy targeting open-air retail centers in growth markets
- Smaller scale provides more room for percentage-based portfolio growth
- Attractive dividend yield reflecting its small-cap retail REIT positioning
- Dominant ownership of the highest-quality, most productive U.S. malls and outlets
- Strong balance sheet and access to capital relative to mall REIT peers
- Diversification into mixed-use development adds growth beyond traditional retail
- Much smaller scale than larger retail REIT peers limits diversification and capital cost advantages
- Open-air shopping center sector faces ongoing competitive and e-commerce pressures
- Smaller market capitalization can mean lower trading liquidity and higher volatility
- Mall real estate continues to face structural pressure from e-commerce shift
- More volatile and economically sensitive than triple-net lease REITs
- Department store anchor bankruptcies and closures create periodic releasing challenges
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