CTO vs SPG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG is the dominant, large-scale leader in premier mall and outlet real estate, while CTO is a much smaller, growth-focused REIT concentrated in open-air shopping centers in southern U.S. growth markets. The comparison highlights vastly different scales within the broader retail REIT sector.
CTO vs SPG contrasts a small-cap, opportunistic open-air shopping center REIT against the largest, most established mall and premium outlet operator in the U.S.
SPG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CTO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+34.63% vs +12.62%), though SPG has the better forward P/E setup (31.30x vs 34.66x for CTO). SPG leads on both revenue growth (19.50%) and operating margin (46.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +14.47% for CTO and +13.11% for SPG.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to smaller-scale, growth-market open-air retail real estate
- See value in CTO's higher percentage growth potential from a smaller base
- Are comfortable with higher volatility and lower trading liquidity
- Want exposure to the highest-quality U.S. malls and premium outlets
- Value Simon's scale, balance sheet strength, and capital access advantages
- Prefer a larger, more established, more liquid retail REIT investment
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 34.6 | 41.4 |
| AI ranki | #1810 | #1051 |
| Latest closei | $20.40 | $204.47 |
| 1M returni | -4.99% | -7.32% |
| 6M returni | +12.75% | +6.88% |
| 1Y returni | +34.63% | +12.62% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.58K (+45.8%) started 2025-09-17 | $11.35K (+13.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $27.84K (+178.4%) started 2021-09-17 | $23.81K (+138.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $51.32K (+413.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $26.81K (+168.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $805.56M | $79.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 15.57 | 14.77 |
| Forward P/Ei | 34.66 | 31.30 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 10.20 |
| EV/Revenuei | 9.00 | 14.07 |
| Analyst targeti | $24.60 | $236.89 |
| Target upsidei | +14.47% | +13.11% |
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.50% | 19.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -12.50% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -12.50% |
| FCF margini | +22.66% | +37.39% |
| Operating margini | 25.42% | 46.02% |
| Profit margini | 32.63% | 66.57% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.50% | 120.51% |
| Return on equityi | 8.50% | 120.51% |
| Dividend yieldi | 7.10% | 4.25% |
| Payout ratioi | 110.14% | 62.10% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.63 | 1.31 |
| Debt/equityi | 99.35 | 503.50 |
| Current ratioi | 2.98 | 0.27 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.25 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, CTO and SPG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.47), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +34.63% | +13.54% |
| CAGRi | +34.66% | +13.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.30% | 18.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.48 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.31 | 0.77 | |
| Max drawdowni | 7.82% | 14.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.82% | 13.62% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.09% | 3.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 2.81% | 4.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.07% | 3.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.98% | 6.70% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +70.46% | +91.96% |
| CAGRi | +11.26% | +13.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.53% | 25.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.47% | 45.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.82% | 13.62% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.36% | 13.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.49% | 18.44% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.78% | 10.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.91% | 15.68% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +152.71% | +52.78% |
| CAGRi | +9.72% | +4.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.91% | 37.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.44 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.85% | 75.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.82% | 13.62% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.17% | 19.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.96% | 25.89% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.34% | 26.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.13% | 55.74% |
| Category | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Simon Property Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Diversified | REIT - Retail |
| Core business | CTO Realty Growth is a small-cap REIT that owns and operates open-air shopping centers and other retail and mixed-use properties across the southeastern and southwestern United States. | Simon Property Group is the largest U.S. mall REIT, owning and operating premier shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use properties, focused on high-quality, well-located retail real estate. |
| Investor focus | Investors track CTO's acquisition pace and cap rates, occupancy and leasing spreads at its shopping centers, and its dividend coverage given its smaller, externally-focused growth strategy. | Investors track Simon's occupancy rates, releasing spreads (rent growth on new leases versus expiring ones), and tenant sales productivity across its mall and outlet portfolio. |
- Focused, opportunistic acquisition strategy targeting open-air retail centers in growth markets
- Smaller scale provides more room for percentage-based portfolio growth
- Attractive dividend yield reflecting its small-cap retail REIT positioning
- Dominant ownership of the highest-quality, most productive U.S. malls and outlets
- Strong balance sheet and access to capital relative to mall REIT peers
- Diversification into mixed-use development adds growth beyond traditional retail
- Much smaller scale than larger retail REIT peers limits diversification and capital cost advantages
- Open-air shopping center sector faces ongoing competitive and e-commerce pressures
- Smaller market capitalization can mean lower trading liquidity and higher volatility
- Mall real estate continues to face structural pressure from e-commerce shift
- More volatile and economically sensitive than triple-net lease REITs
- Department store anchor bankruptcies and closures create periodic releasing challenges
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