SPG vs MAC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Simon Property Group and Macerich are both mall-focused REITs, but Simon operates at much larger scale with a higher-quality, more diversified portfolio, while Macerich is a smaller, more concentrated operator working through balance sheet and portfolio repositioning efforts.
Simon Property Group offers scale and portfolio quality leadership among mall REITs, while Macerich offers a smaller, more concentrated turnaround story tied to portfolio repositioning. Consider whether you prefer Simon's scale and stability or Macerich's more leveraged repositioning opportunity.
SPG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MAC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+27.96% vs +12.33%), though SPG has the better forward P/E setup (31.30x vs 520.22x for MAC). SPG leads on both revenue growth (19.50%) and operating margin (46.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.11% for SPG and +15.60% for MAC.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a large-scale, higher-quality premium mall and outlet portfolio
- Believe scale provides negotiating leverage with national retail tenants
- Value diversification into outlet centers and mixed-use development
- Are comfortable with ongoing e-commerce competition affecting retail real estate broadly
- Want exposure to a smaller, more concentrated mall REIT turnaround story
- Believe ongoing portfolio repositioning will improve overall asset quality
- Value well-located malls in dense, high-income coastal markets
- Are comfortable with higher leverage and interest rate sensitivity than larger peers
| Metric | SPG | MAC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.4 | 26.6 |
| AI ranki | #1051 | #2563 |
| Latest closei | $204.97 | $22.47 |
| 1M returni | -6.65% | -8.38% |
| 6M returni | +8.26% | +20.40% |
| 1Y returni | +12.33% | +27.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPG | MAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.15K (+11.5%) started 2025-09-15 | $13.25K (+32.5%) started 2025-09-15 |
| 5Y ago | $23.3K (+133.0%) started 2021-09-16 | $20.63K (+106.3%) started 2021-09-14 |
| 10Y ago | $26.98K (+169.8%) started 2016-09-16 | $9.78K (-2.2%) started 2016-09-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPG | MAC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $79.51B | $6.91B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.77 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.30 | 520.22 |
| Price/Salesi | 10.20 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.07 | 11.14 |
| Analyst targeti | $236.89 | $27.06 |
| Target upsidei | +13.11% | +15.60% |
| Metric | SPG | MAC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.50% | 1.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -12.50% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -12.50% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +37.39% | +37.85% |
| Operating margini | 46.02% | 16.26% |
| Profit margini | 66.57% | -16.50% |
| ROIC proxyi | 120.51% | -6.18% |
| Return on equityi | 120.51% | -6.18% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.25% | 2.89% |
| Payout ratioi | 62.10% | 188.89% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.31 | 2.07 |
| Debt/equityi | 503.50 | 168.93 |
| Current ratioi | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.27 |
Over the past year, SPG and MAC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.68), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPG | MAC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +11.54% | +28.25% |
| CAGRi | +11.57% | +28.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.01% | 30.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.83 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.63 | 1.18 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.59% | 14.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.41% | 14.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.37% | 3.99% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.67% | 5.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.57% | 7.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.70% | 8.59% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +87.86% | +61.28% |
| CAGRi | +13.45% | +10.03% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.98% | 40.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.63 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.84% | 63.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.41% | 14.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.46% | 25.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.43% | 31.02% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.11% | 14.05% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.68% | 22.39% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +53.78% | -51.69% |
| CAGRi | +4.40% | -7.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.13% | 48.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | 0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.81% | 92.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.41% | 53.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.89% | 59.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.90% | 63.37% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.71% | 28.07% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 55.74% | 56.86% |
| Category | SPG | MAC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Simon Property Group, Inc. | The Macerich Company |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Retail | REIT - Retail |
| Core business | A real estate investment trust that owns and operates premium malls, outlet centers, and mixed-use properties across the United States and select international markets. | A real estate investment trust that owns and operates a portfolio of regional malls concentrated in select U.S. markets, with a focus on portfolio repositioning and balance sheet management. |
| Investor focus | Occupancy rates and leasing spreads across its premium mall and outlet portfolio, tenant sales productivity, and dividend growth supported by operating cash flow. | Occupancy and leasing progress across its mall portfolio, balance sheet deleveraging efforts, and dividend sustainability relative to cash flow. |
- Portfolio concentrated in higher-quality, higher-traffic malls supports stronger tenant demand and pricing power
- Scale as one of the largest mall REITs provides significant negotiating leverage with national retail tenants
- Diversification into outlet centers and mixed-use development supplements traditional mall income
- Portfolio includes a number of well-located malls in dense, high-income coastal markets
- Ongoing portfolio repositioning efforts aim to concentrate capital on its strongest performing properties
- Smaller, more focused portfolio allows for concentrated management attention on key assets
- Retail real estate remains exposed to structural shifts in consumer shopping behavior toward e-commerce
- Tenant health across department store anchors and specialty retailers can affect occupancy and leasing terms
- Interest rate movements affect both financing costs and REIT valuation multiples
- Higher leverage relative to larger mall REIT peers increases sensitivity to interest rate and refinancing conditions
- Portfolio includes some lower-productivity malls that require ongoing repositioning or disposition
- Faces the same structural e-commerce competition pressures affecting the broader mall REIT sector
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