SPG vs PLD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG and PLD are the two largest US REITs in their respective property types — premium malls and industrial logistics. Prologis has benefited from the secular e-commerce tailwind and inflation-driven rent growth. Simon has navigated retail disruption by pivoting to luxury, experience, and food/beverage tenants while maintaining high occupancy. Both offer attractive dividend yields, but serve fundamentally different commercial real estate themes.
SPG vs PLD — Simon Property Group (the dominant US premium mall REIT pivoting toward luxury and experiential retail with high dividend yield) versus Prologis (the world's largest industrial REIT benefiting from e-commerce's secular shift to logistics space with embedded rent roll-up opportunities).
SPG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPG leads on both 1-year return (+25.14%) and forward P/E quality (31.24x vs 39.92x for PLD), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. SPG leads on both revenue growth (19.50%) and operating margin (46.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PLD (+19.92%) than for SPG (+8.16%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- value the highest REIT dividend yields among large-caps — Simon's well-covered FFO supports an attractive income yield for dividend-focused REIT investors
- believe premium Class A mall real estate is irreplaceable in dominant trade areas — luxury brands and experiential tenants want flagship locations Simon's malls provide
- want retail REIT exposure at a valuation reflecting post-COVID skepticism that may be more conservative than fundamentals warrant for high-quality mall assets
- are comfortable with e-commerce secular headwinds, department store anchor closures requiring expensive redevelopment, and ongoing retail sector evolution uncertainty
- want e-commerce and logistics infrastructure exposure through the world's largest industrial REIT with irreplaceable near-population-center logistics sites
- see embedded rent roll-up as a structural NOI growth driver as below-market in-place rents expire and reset to current market rents — a multi-year earnings tailwind
- prefer Prologis's global footprint across 19 countries providing logistics infrastructure diversification vs Simon's primarily North American mall concentration
- are comfortable with industrial supply normalization post-COVID, interest rate sensitivity on long-duration logistics assets, and elevated valuation multiples for the highest-quality industrial REIT
| Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.2 | 50.2 |
| AI ranki | #989 | #537 |
| Latest closei | $228.50 | $131.36 |
| 1M returni | +13.46% | +2.56% |
| 3M returni | +1.64% | -6.68% |
| 6M returni | +11.19% | -8.08% |
| 1Y returni | +25.14% | +5.94% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.6K (+26.0%) started 2025-11-05 | $10.61K (+6.1%) started 2025-11-05 |
| 5Y ago | $20.59K (+105.9%) started 2021-11-08 | $10.84K (+8.4%) started 2021-11-08 |
| 10Y ago | $34.51K (+245.1%) started 2016-11-07 | $42.45K (+324.5%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $80.34B | $122.92B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.94 | 28.10 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.24 | 39.92 |
| Price/Salesi | 10.20 | 11.56 |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.17 | 16.09 |
| Analyst targeti | $228.89 | $151.64 |
| Target upsidei | +8.16% | +19.92% |
| Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.50% | 10.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -12.50% | 3.10% |
| EPS growthi | -12.50% | +3.10% |
| FCF margini | +37.39% | +54.65% |
| Operating margini | 46.02% | 42.95% |
| Profit margini | 66.57% | 43.07% |
| ROIC proxyi | 120.51% | 7.71% |
| Return on equityi | 120.51% | 7.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.21% | 3.38% |
| Payout ratioi | 62.10% | 92.95% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| Debt/equityi | 503.50 | 61.04 |
| Current ratioi | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.29 |
Over the past year, SPG and PLD have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.56), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +25.96% | +6.09% |
| CAGRi | +26.01% | +6.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.80% | 20.88% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.06 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.66 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.52% | 17.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.46% | 12.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.50% | 4.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.56% | 6.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.57% | 3.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.70% | 6.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +65.99% | -2.15% |
| CAGRi | +10.69% | -0.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.78% | 27.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.49 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.48% | 43.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.46% | 17.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.59% | 23.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.31% | 25.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.11% | 9.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.68% | 19.46% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +96.69% | +226.65% |
| CAGRi | +7.00% | +12.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.17% | 27.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.36 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.34% | 43.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.46% | 17.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.53% | 13.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.47% | 18.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.71% | 17.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 55.74% | 21.91% |
| Category | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Simon Property Group, Inc. | Prologis, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Retail | REIT - Industrial |
| Core business | Simon Property Group is the largest retail REIT in the US, owning 195+ premium shopping malls, Premium Outlets, and The Mills properties across North America, Europe, and Asia. Simon's portfolio focuses on high-quality Class A malls with luxury and premium tenants — Neiman Marcus, Apple, Lululemon, and high-end restaurant concepts. Simon has pivoted its tenant mix toward experience, food/beverage, and luxury to combat e-commerce disruption of commodity retail. Simon owns equity stakes in Authentic Brands Group (ABG) and other retail operating companies. Dividend yield is one of the highest among large-cap REITs. | Prologis is the world's largest industrial REIT with 1.2B+ square feet of logistics, distribution, and light manufacturing properties across 19 countries. Prologis's properties serve e-commerce fulfillment, third-party logistics (3PL) providers, retail distribution, and manufacturing. The company's properties are concentrated near major population centers, ports, and transportation hubs — enabling next-day and same-day delivery economics critical for e-commerce. Prologis's Essentials platform offers energy, sustainability, and logistics services as software margin expansion on its real estate base. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Simon's same-store NOI growth, occupancy rates, leasing spreads on lease renewals vs prior rents, luxury tenant demand, and dividend sustainability. | Investors track Prologis's same-store NOI growth, lease-up rates on new developments, rent roll-up on renewals vs in-place rents (significant embedded NOI growth), and logistics demand trends from e-commerce penetration. |
- Premium mall irreplaceability: Simon's Class A malls in dominant trade areas serve as community gathering and experience destinations — premium brands want flagship presence in Simon malls regardless of e-commerce
- Luxury and experiential tenant pivot: Simon's focus on luxury retail, restaurants, entertainment, and fitness uses mall space e-commerce cannot replace — experience-based tenants drive foot traffic and dwell time
- High dividend yield with coverage: Simon's dividend yield provides attractive income in a higher-rate environment and is well covered by FFO — positioned as a value-income REIT vs growth-oriented industrial peers
- E-commerce structural tailwind: every 1% increase in e-commerce penetration requires 1.25B sq ft of additional logistics space — Prologis is the primary beneficiary of the secular shift of commerce to online fulfillment
- Location-scarce logistics infrastructure: near-population-center logistics sites near major cities and ports are supply-constrained — the infill locations Prologis owns cannot be replicated at scale
- Embedded rent roll-up opportunity: Prologis's in-place rents have been significantly below market rents — as leases expire, rents roll up to market creating NOI growth even without occupancy changes
- Department store anchor dependency: Macy's, JCPenney, and Nordstrom anchor stores in Simon malls are closing locations — lost anchors reduce foot traffic and create large vacant boxes requiring expensive redevelopment
- E-commerce secular headwind: online shopping continues to reduce commodity retail traffic to malls — Simon must continuously evolve tenant mix as e-commerce captures retail market share
- Interest rate sensitivity: Simon's large debt load and dividend are sensitive to interest rate levels — higher rates increase refinancing costs and compress the dividend yield spread vs risk-free alternatives
- E-commerce growth deceleration post-COVID: the pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption temporarily — post-COVID logistics demand has normalized, creating near-term industrial REIT supply/demand imbalance in some markets
- Speculative industrial development supply: high 2021-2023 industrial rent growth attracted significant speculative development — new supply in some markets has pressured vacancy rates and rent growth
- Interest rate impact on REIT valuations: Prologis's long-duration assets are sensitive to interest rate increases — 2022 rate hikes caused significant REIT multiple compression even with strong NOI fundamentals
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