Data as of:
LIVE
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc. · REITs
$205.32
-8.00% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
PLD
Prologis, Inc. · REITs
$134.84
-4.57% this month
Comparison scoreboard
PLD LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
SPG 41.4
PLD ✓50.7
1Y Returni
SPG +14.01%
PLD ✓+17.09%
Fwd P/Ei
SPG ✓31.30
PLD 40.33
Target Up.i
SPG +13.11%
PLD ✓+15.21%
Op. Margini
SPG ✓46.02%
PLD 43.03%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/20/2026
Quick take
SPG vs PLD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG and PLD are the two largest US REITs in their respective property types — premium malls and industrial logistics. Prologis has benefited from the secular e-commerce tailwind and inflation-driven rent growth. Simon has navigated retail disruption by pivoting to luxury, experience, and food/beverage tenants while maintaining high occupancy. Both offer attractive dividend yields, but serve fundamentally different commercial real estate themes.
SPG vs PLD — Simon Property Group (the dominant US premium mall REIT pivoting toward luxury and experiential retail with high dividend yield) versus Prologis (the world's largest industrial REIT benefiting from e-commerce's secular shift to logistics space with embedded rent roll-up opportunities).
Live analysis · updated 9/20/2026
PLD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PLD has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+17.09% vs +14.01%), though SPG has the better forward P/E setup (31.30x vs 40.33x for PLD). SPG leads on both revenue growth (19.50%) and operating margin (46.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.11% for SPG and +15.21% for PLD.
Want a full valuation workup? 46-section report — AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, bull/bear case, DCF, and more.
Normalized 1Y performance
SPG
PLD
Recent returns
SPG
PLD
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
SPG · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.2/5.0)
6 Buy / 14 Hold / 0 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$120.00
analyst mean$236.89
current price$205.32
+13.1% upside to analyst mean
PLD · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
10 Buy / 7 Hold / 0 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$95.00
analyst mean$158.23
current price$134.84
+15.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SPG may suit investors who:
- value the highest REIT dividend yields among large-caps — Simon's well-covered FFO supports an attractive income yield for dividend-focused REIT investors
- believe premium Class A mall real estate is irreplaceable in dominant trade areas — luxury brands and experiential tenants want flagship locations Simon's malls provide
- want retail REIT exposure at a valuation reflecting post-COVID skepticism that may be more conservative than fundamentals warrant for high-quality mall assets
- are comfortable with e-commerce secular headwinds, department store anchor closures requiring expensive redevelopment, and ongoing retail sector evolution uncertainty
PLD may suit investors who:
- want e-commerce and logistics infrastructure exposure through the world's largest industrial REIT with irreplaceable near-population-center logistics sites
- see embedded rent roll-up as a structural NOI growth driver as below-market in-place rents expire and reset to current market rents — a multi-year earnings tailwind
- prefer Prologis's global footprint across 19 countries providing logistics infrastructure diversification vs Simon's primarily North American mall concentration
- are comfortable with industrial supply normalization post-COVID, interest rate sensitivity on long-duration logistics assets, and elevated valuation multiples for the highest-quality industrial REIT
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.4 | 50.7 |
| AI ranki | #1051 | #502 |
| Latest closei | $205.32 | $134.84 |
| 1M returni | -8.00% | -4.57% |
| 6M returni | +7.32% | +2.86% |
| 1Y returni | +14.01% | +17.09% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.4K (+14.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $23.91K (+139.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $12.77K (+27.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $26.92K (+169.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $42.24K (+322.4%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $79.51B | $133.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.77 | 30.59 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.30 | 40.33 |
| Price/Salesi | 10.20 | 11.56 |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.07 | 17.39 |
| Analyst targeti | $236.89 | $158.23 |
| Target upsidei | +13.11% | +15.21% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.50% | 12.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -12.50% | 85.30% |
| EPS growthi | -12.50% | +85.30% |
| FCF margini | +37.39% | +55.99% |
| Operating margini | 46.02% | 43.03% |
| Profit margini | 66.57% | 43.58% |
| ROIC proxyi | 120.51% | 7.75% |
| Return on equityi | 120.51% | 7.75% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.25% | 3.12% |
| Payout ratioi | 62.10% | 92.65% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| Debt/equityi | 503.50 | 63.82 |
| Current ratioi | 0.27 | 0.65 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.49 |
Correlation
Over the past year, SPG and PLD have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.54), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.54
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.62
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.47
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SPG max drawdowni14.26%
PLD max drawdowni10.88%
SPG max wkly dropi6.70%
PLD max wkly dropi6.73%
5Y risk snapshot
SPG max drawdowni45.84%
PLD max drawdowni43.30%
SPG max wkly dropi15.68%
PLD max wkly dropi19.46%
10Y risk snapshot
SPG max drawdowni75.81%
PLD max drawdowni43.30%
SPG max wkly dropi55.74%
PLD max wkly dropi21.91%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +14.01% | +17.09% |
| CAGRi | +14.02% | +17.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.98% | 21.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.64 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | 0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.26% | 10.88% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.26% | 10.14% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.50% | 3.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.90% | 4.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.57% | 3.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.70% | 6.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +92.76% | +15.23% |
| CAGRi | +14.04% | +2.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.96% | 27.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 0.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.84% | 43.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.26% | 14.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.48% | 22.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.44% | 25.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.11% | 9.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.68% | 19.46% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +53.41% | +225.07% |
| CAGRi | +4.37% | +12.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.12% | 27.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.81% | 43.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.26% | 14.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.89% | 13.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.89% | 18.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.71% | 17.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 55.74% | 21.91% |
Business comparison
| Category | SPG | PLD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Simon Property Group, Inc. | Prologis, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Retail | REIT - Industrial |
| Core business | Simon Property Group is the largest retail REIT in the US, owning 195+ premium shopping malls, Premium Outlets, and The Mills properties across North America, Europe, and Asia. Simon's portfolio focuses on high-quality Class A malls with luxury and premium tenants — Neiman Marcus, Apple, Lululemon, and high-end restaurant concepts. Simon has pivoted its tenant mix toward experience, food/beverage, and luxury to combat e-commerce disruption of commodity retail. Simon owns equity stakes in Authentic Brands Group (ABG) and other retail operating companies. Dividend yield is one of the highest among large-cap REITs. | Prologis is the world's largest industrial REIT with 1.2B+ square feet of logistics, distribution, and light manufacturing properties across 19 countries. Prologis's properties serve e-commerce fulfillment, third-party logistics (3PL) providers, retail distribution, and manufacturing. The company's properties are concentrated near major population centers, ports, and transportation hubs — enabling next-day and same-day delivery economics critical for e-commerce. Prologis's Essentials platform offers energy, sustainability, and logistics services as software margin expansion on its real estate base. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Simon's same-store NOI growth, occupancy rates, leasing spreads on lease renewals vs prior rents, luxury tenant demand, and dividend sustainability. | Investors track Prologis's same-store NOI growth, lease-up rates on new developments, rent roll-up on renewals vs in-place rents (significant embedded NOI growth), and logistics demand trends from e-commerce penetration. |
SPG strengths
- Premium mall irreplaceability: Simon's Class A malls in dominant trade areas serve as community gathering and experience destinations — premium brands want flagship presence in Simon malls regardless of e-commerce
- Luxury and experiential tenant pivot: Simon's focus on luxury retail, restaurants, entertainment, and fitness uses mall space e-commerce cannot replace — experience-based tenants drive foot traffic and dwell time
- High dividend yield with coverage: Simon's dividend yield provides attractive income in a higher-rate environment and is well covered by FFO — positioned as a value-income REIT vs growth-oriented industrial peers
PLD strengths
- E-commerce structural tailwind: every 1% increase in e-commerce penetration requires 1.25B sq ft of additional logistics space — Prologis is the primary beneficiary of the secular shift of commerce to online fulfillment
- Location-scarce logistics infrastructure: near-population-center logistics sites near major cities and ports are supply-constrained — the infill locations Prologis owns cannot be replicated at scale
- Embedded rent roll-up opportunity: Prologis's in-place rents have been significantly below market rents — as leases expire, rents roll up to market creating NOI growth even without occupancy changes
Risks to watch — SPG
- Department store anchor dependency: Macy's, JCPenney, and Nordstrom anchor stores in Simon malls are closing locations — lost anchors reduce foot traffic and create large vacant boxes requiring expensive redevelopment
- E-commerce secular headwind: online shopping continues to reduce commodity retail traffic to malls — Simon must continuously evolve tenant mix as e-commerce captures retail market share
- Interest rate sensitivity: Simon's large debt load and dividend are sensitive to interest rate levels — higher rates increase refinancing costs and compress the dividend yield spread vs risk-free alternatives
Risks to watch — PLD
- E-commerce growth deceleration post-COVID: the pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption temporarily — post-COVID logistics demand has normalized, creating near-term industrial REIT supply/demand imbalance in some markets
- Speculative industrial development supply: high 2021-2023 industrial rent growth attracted significant speculative development — new supply in some markets has pressured vacancy rates and rent growth
- Interest rate impact on REIT valuations: Prologis's long-duration assets are sensitive to interest rate increases — 2022 rate hikes caused significant REIT multiple compression even with strong NOI fundamentals
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