SPG vs NNN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG owns and actively manages premier malls and outlets with more cyclical, higher-risk-higher-reward economics, while NNN owns single-tenant net lease properties with simpler, more predictable triple-net cash flows and a long dividend growth track record. The comparison highlights two fundamentally different retail real estate investment models.
SPG vs NNN contrasts an actively managed, higher-quality mall and outlet REIT with more cyclical exposure against a more passive, predictable single-tenant net lease REIT with a long dividend growth history.
SPG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+26.15% vs +3.06%), though NNN has the better forward P/E setup (21.42x vs 31.24x for SPG). On fundamentals, SPG is growing revenue faster (19.50%), while NNN maintains the higher operating margin (61.70%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +8.16% for SPG and +5.76% for NNN.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the highest-quality U.S. malls and premium outlets
- Believe mixed-use redevelopment will continue creating incremental value
- Are comfortable with greater cyclicality and economic sensitivity
- Want exposure to predictable, long-term triple-net lease cash flows
- Value a long, consistent track record of dividend increases
- Prefer lower volatility over active mall management exposure
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.2 | 26.6 |
| AI ranki | #989 | #2478 |
| Latest closei | $221.73 | $41.70 |
| 1M returni | +10.34% | +1.83% |
| 3M returni | -3.24% | -12.19% |
| 6M returni | +10.03% | -5.36% |
| 1Y returni | +26.15% | +3.06% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.55K (+25.5%) started 2025-11-03 | $10.2K (+2.0%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $20.11K (+101.1%) started 2021-11-03 | $8.98K (-10.2%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $33.97K (+239.7%) started 2016-11-03 | $9.63K (-3.7%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $80.34B | $8.57B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.94 | 22.20 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.24 | 21.42 |
| Price/Salesi | 10.20 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.17 | 14.35 |
| Analyst targeti | $228.89 | $47.67 |
| Target upsidei | +8.16% | +5.76% |
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.50% | 7.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -12.50% | -3.70% |
| EPS growthi | -12.50% | -3.70% |
| FCF margini | +37.39% | -143.91% |
| Operating margini | 46.02% | 61.70% |
| Profit margini | 66.57% | 40.35% |
| ROIC proxyi | 120.51% | 8.72% |
| Return on equityi | 120.51% | 8.72% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.21% | 5.48% |
| Payout ratioi | 62.10% | 118.81% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| Debt/equityi | 503.50 | 112.12 |
| Current ratioi | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.12 |
Over the past year, SPG and NNN have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.53), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +25.51% | +1.98% |
| CAGRi | +25.60% | +1.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.31% | 17.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.05 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.61 | -0.08 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.52% | 19.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.32% | 15.91% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.48% | 5.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.54% | 7.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.57% | 4.00% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.70% | 6.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +62.19% | -10.23% |
| CAGRi | +10.16% | -2.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.69% | 19.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | -0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.47 | -0.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.84% | 28.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.32% | 15.91% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.80% | 11.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.57% | 13.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.11% | 5.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.68% | 11.62% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +93.63% | -3.65% |
| CAGRi | +6.83% | -0.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.12% | 28.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | -0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.35 | -0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.34% | 55.19% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.32% | 29.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.52% | 20.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.46% | 24.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.71% | 24.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 55.74% | 43.12% |
| Category | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Simon Property Group, Inc. | National Retail Properties, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Retail | REIT - Retail |
| Core business | Simon Property Group is the largest U.S. mall REIT, owning and operating premier shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use properties, focused on high-quality, well-located retail real estate. | National Retail Properties is a net lease REIT focused on single-tenant retail properties, primarily in convenience stores, restaurants, and automotive service categories, leased under long-term net leases. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Simon's occupancy rates, releasing spreads (rent growth on new leases versus expiring ones), and tenant sales productivity across its mall and outlet portfolio. | Investors track National Retail Properties' long dividend increase streak (one of the longest in the REIT sector), acquisition cap rates, and tenant diversification across retail subcategories. |
- Dominant ownership of the highest-quality, most productive U.S. malls and outlets
- Strong balance sheet and access to capital relative to mall REIT peers
- Diversification into mixed-use development adds growth beyond traditional retail
- One of the longest consecutive annual dividend increase streaks in the entire REIT sector
- Conservative balance sheet and disciplined underwriting approach
- Diversified across resilient retail subcategories like convenience and automotive services
- Mall real estate continues to face structural pressure from e-commerce shift
- More volatile and economically sensitive than triple-net lease REITs
- Department store anchor bankruptcies and closures create periodic releasing challenges
- Smaller scale than larger net lease peers limits some diversification and capital cost advantages
- Retail-concentrated portfolio carries some exposure to e-commerce disruption in certain subcategories
- Slower growth profile than some smaller, faster-growing net lease peers
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