SPG vs NNN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG owns and actively manages premier malls and outlets with more cyclical, higher-risk-higher-reward economics, while NNN owns single-tenant net lease properties with simpler, more predictable triple-net cash flows and a long dividend growth track record. The comparison highlights two fundamentally different retail real estate investment models.
SPG vs NNN contrasts an actively managed, higher-quality mall and outlet REIT with more cyclical exposure against a more passive, predictable single-tenant net lease REIT with a long dividend growth history.
SPG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+12.62% vs -2.14%), though NNN has the better forward P/E setup (21.42x vs 31.30x for SPG). On fundamentals, SPG is growing revenue faster (19.50%), while NNN maintains the higher operating margin (61.70%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPG (+13.11%) than for NNN (+5.76%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the highest-quality U.S. malls and premium outlets
- Believe mixed-use redevelopment will continue creating incremental value
- Are comfortable with greater cyclicality and economic sensitivity
- Want exposure to predictable, long-term triple-net lease cash flows
- Value a long, consistent track record of dividend increases
- Prefer lower volatility over active mall management exposure
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.4 | 26.6 |
| AI ranki | #1051 | #2555 |
| Latest closei | $204.47 | $41.66 |
| 1M returni | -7.32% | -9.10% |
| 6M returni | +6.88% | -5.81% |
| 1Y returni | +12.62% | -2.14% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.35K (+13.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.85K (-1.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $23.81K (+138.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $9.28K (-7.2%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $26.81K (+168.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $8.46K (-15.4%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $79.51B | $8.57B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.77 | 22.20 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.30 | 21.42 |
| Price/Salesi | 10.20 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.07 | 14.35 |
| Analyst targeti | $236.89 | $47.67 |
| Target upsidei | +13.11% | +5.76% |
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.50% | 7.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -12.50% | -3.70% |
| EPS growthi | -12.50% | -3.70% |
| FCF margini | +37.39% | -143.91% |
| Operating margini | 46.02% | 61.70% |
| Profit margini | 66.57% | 40.35% |
| ROIC proxyi | 120.51% | 8.72% |
| Return on equityi | 120.51% | 8.72% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.25% | 5.48% |
| Payout ratioi | 62.10% | 118.23% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.31 | 0.78 |
| Debt/equityi | 503.50 | 112.12 |
| Current ratioi | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.12 |
Over the past year, SPG and NNN have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.51), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +13.54% | -1.47% |
| CAGRi | +13.55% | -1.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.98% | 16.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.53 | -0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.77 | -0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.26% | 16.01% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.62% | 15.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.50% | 3.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.90% | 5.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.57% | 4.00% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.70% | 6.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +91.96% | -7.24% |
| CAGRi | +13.95% | -1.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.96% | 19.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | -0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | -0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.84% | 28.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.62% | 15.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.48% | 11.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.44% | 12.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.11% | 5.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.68% | 11.62% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +52.78% | -15.38% |
| CAGRi | +4.33% | -1.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.12% | 28.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | -0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | -0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.81% | 55.19% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.62% | 29.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.89% | 22.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.89% | 25.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.71% | 24.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 55.74% | 43.12% |
| Category | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Simon Property Group, Inc. | National Retail Properties, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Retail | REIT - Retail |
| Core business | Simon Property Group is the largest U.S. mall REIT, owning and operating premier shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use properties, focused on high-quality, well-located retail real estate. | National Retail Properties is a net lease REIT focused on single-tenant retail properties, primarily in convenience stores, restaurants, and automotive service categories, leased under long-term net leases. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Simon's occupancy rates, releasing spreads (rent growth on new leases versus expiring ones), and tenant sales productivity across its mall and outlet portfolio. | Investors track National Retail Properties' long dividend increase streak (one of the longest in the REIT sector), acquisition cap rates, and tenant diversification across retail subcategories. |
- Dominant ownership of the highest-quality, most productive U.S. malls and outlets
- Strong balance sheet and access to capital relative to mall REIT peers
- Diversification into mixed-use development adds growth beyond traditional retail
- One of the longest consecutive annual dividend increase streaks in the entire REIT sector
- Conservative balance sheet and disciplined underwriting approach
- Diversified across resilient retail subcategories like convenience and automotive services
- Mall real estate continues to face structural pressure from e-commerce shift
- More volatile and economically sensitive than triple-net lease REITs
- Department store anchor bankruptcies and closures create periodic releasing challenges
- Smaller scale than larger net lease peers limits some diversification and capital cost advantages
- Retail-concentrated portfolio carries some exposure to e-commerce disruption in certain subcategories
- Slower growth profile than some smaller, faster-growing net lease peers
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