OKLO vs VST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Oklo is a speculative small modular reactor developer with no commercial operations yet, while Vistra is an established, diversified power generator already selling electricity into competitive markets with direct exposure to rising data center demand. Vistra offers proven, already-monetizing exposure to the same power demand theme with more near-term earnings volatility from merchant pricing, while Oklo offers concentrated, longer-dated upside tied to new reactor technology. The choice depends on whether an investor wants current merchant power exposure or a bet on future nuclear technology deployment.
Use this comparison to weigh established, merchant power generation exposure to rising electricity demand (Vistra) against a speculative, pre-commercial small modular reactor bet (Oklo).
VST holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VST leads on both 1-year return (-26.88%) and forward P/E quality (15.50x vs -39.36x for OKLO), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OKLO (+102.11%) than for VST (+30.20%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want early-stage exposure to next-generation nuclear reactor technology
- Are comfortable with pre-revenue risk and multi-year development timelines
- Believe dedicated on-site nuclear power will be a preferred long-term solution for data centers
- Can tolerate high volatility with a longer time horizon for payoff
- Want current exposure to rising wholesale power prices tied to data center demand
- Prefer an already-operating, diversified generation fleet over unproven technology
- Are comfortable with merchant power price volatility
- Still want existing nuclear exposure as part of a broader generation mix
| Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.1 | 59.4 |
| AI ranki | #1101 | #151 |
| Latest closei | $30.01 | $154.17 |
| 1M returni | -16.59% | +8.93% |
| 3M returni | -28.03% | +1.06% |
| 6M returni | -53.26% | -6.86% |
| 1Y returni | -82.51% | -26.88% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $1.75K (-82.5%) started 2025-10-15 | $7.33K (-26.7%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $30.65K (+206.5%) started 2021-10-15 | $93.37K (+833.7%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $30.07K (+200.7%) started 2021-07-08 | $182.53K (+1725.3%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.35B | $54.2B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 27.23 |
| Forward P/Ei | -39.36 | 15.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3889.31 | 4.00 |
| Analyst targeti | $79.88 | $210.25 |
| Target upsidei | +102.11% | +30.20% |
| Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | N/A | -5.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -6.20% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -6.20% |
| FCF margini | -19778.92% | +0.19% |
| Operating margini | -6048.76% | 13.77% |
| Profit margini | 0.00% | 11.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.70% | 42.96% |
| Return on equityi | -7.70% | 42.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.57% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 15.35% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.20 | 1.38 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.12 | 373.28 |
| Current ratioi | 48.46 | 0.97 |
| Quick ratioi | 47.63 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, OKLO and VST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -82.51% | -26.73% |
| CAGRi | -82.53% | -26.76% | |
| Volatilityi | 93.87% | 49.80% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.44 | -0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.98 | -0.63 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.07% | 35.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.51% | 26.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 60.54% | 24.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 62.62% | 25.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.13% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.98% | 14.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +206.54% | +762.04% |
| CAGRi | +25.12% | +53.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 87.85% | 48.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 1.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.05 | 1.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.32% | 48.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.77% | 29.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.94% | 12.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.17% | 17.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 53.65% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.12% | 20.33% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +200.70% | +1200.65% |
| CAGRi | +23.23% | +29.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 85.51% | 42.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.01 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.32% | 53.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.77% | 29.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.84% | 14.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.23% | 18.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 53.65% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.12% | 32.76% |
| Category | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Oklo Inc. | Vistra Corp. |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Utilities - Independent Power Producers |
| Core business | Oklo is developing small modular fission reactors aimed at providing dedicated power for data centers and other high-demand customers, with first commercial power targeted for 2027-2028. | Vistra is an integrated power generation and retail electricity company operating a diversified fleet including nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage assets across competitive U.S. power markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch regulatory milestones such as reactor criticality and licensing progress, the pace of signed customer power agreements, and cash runway against ongoing losses. | Investors focus on merchant power price exposure, capacity additions tied to data center demand, and the earnings contribution from Vistra's existing nuclear fleet. |
- Achieved criticality at a demonstration small modular reactor, a key technical and regulatory milestone
- Roughly 14 GW of customer agreements tied to future AI and data center power demand
- Large cash position relative to near-term burn rate provides multi-year runway
- Diversified generation fleet including an existing nuclear plant provides current, proven baseload power
- Direct exposure to rising wholesale power prices in markets serving growing data center demand
- Integrated retail electricity business provides some earnings diversification beyond generation
- Pre-commercial stage with ongoing net losses and negative free cash flow
- First commercial power delivery not expected until 2027-2028
- Nuclear regulatory and permitting timelines can slip and are largely outside company control
- Merchant power price exposure creates earnings volatility tied to commodity and weather cycles
- Fleet includes carbon-intensive assets that carry longer-term regulatory and transition risk
- Valuation has risen substantially on AI-driven power demand optimism
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on OKLO and VST. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside OKLO and VST, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.