OKLO vs VST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Oklo is a speculative small modular reactor developer with no commercial operations yet, while Vistra is an established, diversified power generator already selling electricity into competitive markets with direct exposure to rising data center demand. Vistra offers proven, already-monetizing exposure to the same power demand theme with more near-term earnings volatility from merchant pricing, while Oklo offers concentrated, longer-dated upside tied to new reactor technology. The choice depends on whether an investor wants current merchant power exposure or a bet on future nuclear technology deployment.
Use this comparison to weigh established, merchant power generation exposure to rising electricity demand (Vistra) against a speculative, pre-commercial small modular reactor bet (Oklo).
VST holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VST leads on both 1-year return (-26.98%) and forward P/E quality (13.25x vs -40.40x for OKLO), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OKLO (+96.88%) than for VST (+58.27%).
- Want early-stage exposure to next-generation nuclear reactor technology
- Are comfortable with pre-revenue risk and multi-year development timelines
- Believe dedicated on-site nuclear power will be a preferred long-term solution for data centers
- Can tolerate high volatility with a longer time horizon for payoff
- Want current exposure to rising wholesale power prices tied to data center demand
- Prefer an already-operating, diversified generation fleet over unproven technology
- Are comfortable with merchant power price volatility
- Still want existing nuclear exposure as part of a broader generation mix
| Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 46.1 | 52.5 |
| AI rank | #664 | #315 |
| Latest close | $40.57 | $137.37 |
| 1M return | +4.48% | -7.30% |
| 6M return | -35.55% | -20.78% |
| 1Y return | -44.91% | -26.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.51K (-44.9%) started 2025-09-02 | $7.47K (-25.3%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $41.27K (+312.7%) started 2021-08-31 | $86.88K (+768.8%) started 2021-08-31 |
| 10Y ago | $40.65K (+306.5%) started 2021-07-08 | $171.54K (+1615.4%) started 2016-10-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $7.55B | $46.11B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 23.13 |
| Forward P/E | -40.40 | 13.25 |
| Price/Sales | 6236.97 | 2.40 |
| EV/Revenue | 4136.82 | 3.57 |
| Analyst target | $79.88 | $217.42 |
| Target upside | +96.88% | +58.27% |
| Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | N/A | -5.50% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | -6.20% |
| EPS growth | N/A | -6.20% |
| FCF margin | -19778.92% | +0.19% |
| Operating margin | -6048.76% | 13.77% |
| Profit margin | 0.00% | 11.55% |
| ROIC proxy | -7.70% | 42.96% |
| Return on equity | -7.70% | 42.96% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.67% |
| Beta | 1.20 | 1.43 |
| Debt/equity | 0.12 | 373.28 |
| Current ratio | 48.46 | 0.97 |
| Quick ratio | 47.63 | 0.26 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -44.87% | -25.68% |
| CAGR | -45.07% | -25.82% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.13 | -0.45 | |
| Max drawdown | 78.84% | 38.01% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.13% | 12.64% | |
| Max wkly drop | 29.98% | 14.35% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +312.72% | +689.41% |
| CAGR | +32.78% | +51.18% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.71 | 1.01 | |
| Max drawdown | 78.84% | 48.80% | |
| Max daily drop | 53.65% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 47.12% | 20.33% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +306.51% | +1111.63% |
| CAGR | +31.32% | +28.65% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.70 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdown | 78.84% | 53.32% | |
| Max daily drop | 53.65% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 47.12% | 32.76% |
| Category | OKLO | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Oklo Inc. | Vistra Corp. |
| Sector | Utilities / Nuclear Energy | Utilities / Power Generation and Retail Electricity |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Oklo is developing small modular fission reactors aimed at providing dedicated power for data centers and other high-demand customers, with first commercial power targeted for 2027-2028. | Vistra is an integrated power generation and retail electricity company operating a diversified fleet including nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage assets across competitive U.S. power markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch regulatory milestones such as reactor criticality and licensing progress, the pace of signed customer power agreements, and cash runway against ongoing losses. | Investors focus on merchant power price exposure, capacity additions tied to data center demand, and the earnings contribution from Vistra's existing nuclear fleet. |
- Achieved criticality at a demonstration small modular reactor, a key technical and regulatory milestone
- Roughly 14 GW of customer agreements tied to future AI and data center power demand
- Large cash position relative to near-term burn rate provides multi-year runway
- Diversified generation fleet including an existing nuclear plant provides current, proven baseload power
- Direct exposure to rising wholesale power prices in markets serving growing data center demand
- Integrated retail electricity business provides some earnings diversification beyond generation
- Pre-commercial stage with ongoing net losses and negative free cash flow
- First commercial power delivery not expected until 2027-2028
- Nuclear regulatory and permitting timelines can slip and are largely outside company control
- Merchant power price exposure creates earnings volatility tied to commodity and weather cycles
- Fleet includes carbon-intensive assets that carry longer-term regulatory and transition risk
- Valuation has risen substantially on AI-driven power demand optimism
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