DUK vs SO: Two Premier Regulated Utilities With Different Growth Catalysts: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Duke Energy and Southern Company are two of the largest regulated utilities in the US, both offering predictable earnings, constructive regulatory environments, and attractive dividend yields. DUK's growth is driven by grid modernization and clean energy capital deployment across multiple states, while SO's near-term catalyst is the earnings ramp from Plant Vogtle nuclear and data center demand growth in Georgia.
This DUK vs SO comparison contrasts two premier regulated utilities with different growth vectors. Duke offers a diversified multi-state regulated platform with a large grid modernization capital plan; Southern offers a unique nuclear growth catalyst and data center demand tailwind, but with a heavier balance sheet from Vogtle construction.
DUK holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DUK leads on both 1-year return (-3.14%) and forward P/E quality (16.77x vs 17.92x for SO), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, DUK is growing revenue faster (1.10%), while SO maintains the higher operating margin (29.61%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +14.16% for DUK and +13.64% for SO.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a large, diversified regulated utility with multi-state exposure and predictable earnings
- Prefer a higher dividend yield with a long track record of annual increases
- Believe grid modernization and clean energy investment will drive steady rate base growth
- Value geographic diversification across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, and the Midwest
- Want exposure to the only new nuclear reactors built in the US in a generation via Plant Vogtle
- Believe data center electricity demand growth in Georgia will drive incremental load and rate base investment
- Are comfortable with near-term balance sheet leverage that should improve as Vogtle earns on its rate base
- Prefer a Southeast-focused utility with constructive regulatory relationships across Georgia and Alabama
| Metric | DUK | SO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.6 | 50.3 |
| AI ranki | #1003 | #495 |
| Latest closei | $124.98 | $92.89 |
| 1M returni | +9.47% | +11.29% |
| 3M returni | -4.24% | -4.48% |
| 6M returni | -1.80% | -0.64% |
| 1Y returni | -3.14% | -4.71% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DUK | SO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.82K (-1.8%) started 2025-10-23 | $9.66K (-3.4%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $16.56K (+65.6%) started 2021-10-25 | $19.84K (+98.4%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $35.34K (+253.4%) started 2016-10-24 | $41.31K (+313.1%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DUK | SO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $93.76B | $101.52B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.11 | 21.27 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.77 | 17.92 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 3.49 |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.74 | 5.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $137.28 | $100.29 |
| Target upsidei | +14.16% | +13.64% |
| Metric | DUK | SO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1.10% | 0.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 10.60% | 30.40% |
| EPS growthi | +10.60% | +30.40% |
| FCF margini | -13.65% | -12.97% |
| Operating margini | 27.50% | 29.61% |
| Profit margini | 16.00% | 15.43% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.86% | 11.48% |
| Return on equityi | 9.86% | 11.48% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.61% | 3.44% |
| Payout ratioi | 64.16% | 71.81% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Debt/equityi | 162.16 | 182.06 |
| Current ratioi | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.44 |
Over the past year, DUK and SO have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.87), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DUK | SO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -1.79% | -3.39% |
| CAGRi | -1.79% | -3.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 16.57% | 17.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.30 | -0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.41 | -0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 15.16% | 16.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 6.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.07% | 6.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.06% | 7.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 2.93% | 3.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.99% | 5.84% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +41.13% | +70.52% |
| CAGRi | +7.14% | +11.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.06% | 18.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.16% | 23.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 6.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.31% | 6.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.26% | 8.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.70% | 4.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.31% | 11.77% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +129.13% | +164.67% |
| CAGRi | +8.65% | +10.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.47% | 22.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.41 | 0.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.37% | 38.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 6.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.81% | 7.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.98% | 9.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.50% | 11.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.25% | 23.39% |
| Category | DUK | SO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Duke Energy Corporation | The Southern Company |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Regulated Electric | Utilities - Regulated Electric |
| Core business | One of the largest regulated electric utilities in the US, serving approximately 8.4 million customers across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Operates a predominantly regulated business with growing investments in grid modernization, renewable energy, and storm hardening. | One of the largest US utilities, serving 9 million customers across the Southeast through regulated subsidiaries Georgia Power, Alabama Power, and Mississippi Power. Also operates Southern Company Gas and the Southern Power competitive generation business. Completed the Plant Vogtle nuclear expansion, adding two new reactors. |
| Investor focus | Rate base growth driven by grid modernization and clean energy investments, regulatory outcomes across multiple jurisdictions, dividend growth trajectory, and storm recovery cost mechanisms. | Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4 ramp-up and earnings contribution, regulated rate base growth, data center load growth in Georgia, dividend yield sustainability, and credit profile improvement post-Vogtle. |
- Large regulated utility with predictable earnings from constructive regulatory jurisdictions in the Carolinas and Florida
- Substantial multi-year capital investment plan in grid modernization, renewables, and storm resilience driving rate base growth
- Strong dividend with a 3.5% yield and a long track record of annual dividend increases
- Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4 now operational — the only new nuclear reactors built in the US in decades, providing decades of carbon-free baseload generation
- Constructive regulatory environment across Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi supports predictable earnings recovery
- Significant data center load growth in Georgia is driving incremental demand and rate base investment opportunities
- Multi-state regulatory complexity creates execution risk across different rate case outcomes
- Storm exposure in the Carolinas and Florida can create earnings volatility and capital recovery timing risk
- Coal plant retirement and clean energy transition require significant capital with regulatory recovery uncertainty
- Elevated leverage from Plant Vogtle cost overruns requires years of deleveraging to restore credit metrics
- Concentration in the Southeast creates geographic and weather exposure to a single region
- Southern Power competitive generation business adds earnings variability relative to the regulated core
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