NEE vs DUK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NextEra Energy and Duke Energy are both large US utility holding companies with strong dividend track records, but NextEra combines its regulated Florida utility with one of the largest renewable energy development platforms globally, while Duke Energy operates a more traditional, multi-state regulated utility footprint focused on gradual grid modernization.
NextEra Energy offers exposure to a regulated utility base combined with significant renewable energy growth potential, while Duke Energy offers a more traditional, stable regulated utility earnings profile across a diversified multi-state footprint. Consider whether you prefer NextEra's renewable growth exposure or Duke Energy's steadier regulated utility stability.
NEE holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NEE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-0.89% vs -3.14%), though DUK has the better forward P/E setup (16.77x vs 18.65x for NEE). NEE leads on both revenue growth (12.40%) and operating margin (31.52%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NEE (+20.22%) than for DUK (+14.16%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a stable regulated utility combined with a leading renewable energy development platform
- Believe long-term clean energy demand growth supports continued wind, solar, and storage expansion
- Value a long track record of consistent dividend growth
- Are comfortable with execution risk tied to renewable project permitting and development timelines
- Want exposure to a large, diversified, traditional regulated utility footprint
- Value dividend stability supported by predictable regulated earnings
- Prefer steady, visible rate base growth over higher-growth renewable development exposure
- Are comfortable with a more gradual clean energy transition timeline
| Metric | NEE | DUK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.1 | 41.6 |
| AI ranki | #455 | #1003 |
| Latest closei | $82.10 | $124.98 |
| 1M returni | +6.60% | +9.47% |
| 3M returni | -8.55% | -4.24% |
| 6M returni | -13.83% | -1.80% |
| 1Y returni | -0.89% | -3.14% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NEE | DUK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.86K (-1.4%) started 2025-10-23 | $9.82K (-1.8%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2021-10-25 | $16.56K (+65.6%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $41.24K (+312.4%) started 2016-10-24 | $35.34K (+253.4%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NEE | DUK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $170.72B | $93.76B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.39 | 18.11 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.65 | 16.77 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.88 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 10.07 | 5.74 |
| Analyst targeti | $98.39 | $137.28 |
| Target upsidei | +20.22% | +14.16% |
| Metric | NEE | DUK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.40% | 1.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 53.10% | 10.60% |
| EPS growthi | +53.10% | +10.60% |
| FCF margini | -61.91% | -13.65% |
| Operating margini | 31.52% | 27.50% |
| Profit margini | 32.40% | 16.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | 11.68% | 9.86% |
| Return on equityi | 11.68% | 9.86% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.05% | 3.61% |
| Payout ratioi | 43.89% | 64.16% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.65 | 0.37 |
| Debt/equityi | 161.68 | 162.16 |
| Current ratioi | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.35 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, NEE and DUK have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.61), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NEE | DUK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -1.38% | -1.79% |
| CAGRi | -1.38% | -1.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.20% | 16.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | -0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.24 | -0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.87% | 15.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.12% | 6.35% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.97% | 6.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.12% | 7.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.63% | 2.93% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.96% | 5.99% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +6.60% | +41.13% |
| CAGRi | +1.29% | +7.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.89% | 18.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.02 | 0.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.02 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.97% | 24.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.12% | 6.35% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.05% | 7.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.84% | 9.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.97% | 4.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.71% | 10.31% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +226.24% | +129.13% |
| CAGRi | +12.56% | +8.65% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.48% | 20.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.59 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.97% | 37.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.12% | 6.35% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.58% | 6.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.46% | 8.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.42% | 11.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.36% | 20.25% |
| Category | NEE | DUK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Duke Energy Corporation |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Regulated Electric | Utilities - Regulated Electric |
| Core business | A large electric utility holding company operating a regulated Florida utility alongside one of the largest renewable energy generation portfolios in the world, combining stable regulated returns with growth from wind, solar, and battery storage development. | A large regulated electric and natural gas utility holding company serving customers across several southeastern and midwestern US states, focused on grid modernization and a gradual transition toward cleaner generation sources. |
| Investor focus | Renewable energy capacity addition growth, regulated Florida utility rate base expansion, and dividend growth track record supported by both segments. | Regulated rate base growth across its multi-state utility footprint, grid modernization capital spending, and dividend stability supported by regulated earnings. |
- Combines a stable, regulated Florida utility business with one of the largest renewable energy development platforms globally
- Long track record of consistent dividend growth reflects durable earnings growth across both regulated and renewable segments
- Scale and experience in wind, solar, and battery storage development position it well to benefit from long-term clean energy demand growth
- Large, diversified regulated utility footprint across multiple states provides stable, predictable earnings from rate-based investment
- Long history as a reliable dividend payer appeals to income-focused utility investors seeking stability
- Ongoing grid modernization and generation transition investments support steady, visible long-term rate base growth
- Renewable energy development projects carry execution risk tied to permitting, interconnection, and supply chain timelines
- Higher interest rates raise financing costs for capital-intensive renewable energy and utility infrastructure investment
- Valuation has historically reflected a premium for its renewable growth platform, leaving less room for error if growth slows
- Growth is more gradual than utilities with significant unregulated or renewable development platforms
- Regulatory approval processes for rate increases can create timing uncertainty around earnings growth
- Higher interest rates raise financing costs for capital-intensive grid modernization and generation investments
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