DUK vs AEP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
DUK (Duke Energy) and AEP (American Electric Power) are both large regulated U.S. electric utilities serving millions of customers in the Southeast and Midwest — Duke is the largest U.S. utility by customer count with significant nuclear generation and a Southeast/Florida geographic focus, while AEP operates the largest transmission network in the U.S. spanning 11 Midwestern and Southern states with significant industrial customer load and major transmission investment opportunity.
DUK vs AEP is largest regulated utility managing Southeast clean energy transition (Duke's massive customer base in the Carolinas and Florida with nuclear generation and offshore wind investment transitioning from coal to clean energy) versus largest transmission network utility with industrial load growth (AEP's 40,000+ miles of transmission infrastructure serving 11 states with growing industrial and data center electricity demand driving investment opportunity) — scale and Southeast versus transmission infrastructure and industrial.
AEP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AEP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+12.74% vs -2.38%), though DUK has the better forward P/E setup (16.77x vs 17.99x for AEP). On fundamentals, AEP is growing revenue faster (7.00%), while DUK maintains the higher operating margin (27.50%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +14.16% for DUK and +16.76% for AEP.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the largest regulated electric utility with broad customer diversification across Southeast and Midwest states and nuclear clean energy generation providing baseload carbon-free power
- Value Duke's Florida utility exposure to that state's population growth as a long-term customer growth driver alongside Carolina industrial development
- Prefer Duke's consistent 5-7% earnings growth guidance and dividend growth track record as a core regulated utility income holding
- Want the largest U.S. transmission network as a long-term infrastructure investment earning FERC-regulated returns on transmission investment supporting renewable energy interconnection and grid modernization
- Value AEP's industrial customer load growth from manufacturing reshoring and electrification as a structural electricity demand driver supplementing residential growth
- See AEP's multi-state regulatory diversification across 11 states as spreading regulatory risk versus utilities concentrated in fewer jurisdictions
| Metric | DUK | AEP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.3 | 51.6 |
| AI ranki | #1056 | #444 |
| Latest closei | $117.53 | $120.00 |
| 1M returni | -4.91% | -4.97% |
| 6M returni | -9.41% | -6.77% |
| 1Y returni | -2.38% | +12.74% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DUK | AEP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.76K (-2.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.27K (+12.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $16.07K (+60.7%) started 2021-09-20 | $19.28K (+92.8%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $32.39K (+223.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $35.99K (+259.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DUK | AEP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $93.76B | $67.14B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.11 | 21.37 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.77 | 17.99 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.74 | 5.32 |
| Analyst targeti | $137.28 | $144.00 |
| Target upsidei | +14.16% | +16.76% |
| Metric | DUK | AEP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1.10% | 7.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 10.60% | -43.20% |
| EPS growthi | +10.60% | -43.20% |
| FCF margini | -13.65% | -26.31% |
| Operating margini | 27.50% | 23.25% |
| Profit margini | 16.00% | 13.78% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.86% | 10.13% |
| Return on equityi | 9.86% | 10.13% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.61% | 3.08% |
| Payout ratioi | 64.16% | 65.51% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| Debt/equityi | 162.16 | 160.79 |
| Current ratioi | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.28 |
Over the past year, DUK and AEP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DUK | AEP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -2.38% | +12.74% |
| CAGRi | -2.38% | +12.75% | |
| Volatilityi | 16.00% | 19.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.35 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.48 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.94% | 13.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.94% | 13.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.25% | 4.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.21% | 5.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 2.93% | 3.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.99% | 5.95% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +36.98% | +65.89% |
| CAGRi | +6.50% | +10.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 17.97% | 20.16% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.16% | 29.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.94% | 13.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.10% | 8.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.09% | 10.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.70% | 5.34% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.31% | 11.71% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +109.95% | +150.44% |
| CAGRi | +7.70% | +9.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.43% | 21.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.35 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.37% | 32.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.94% | 13.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.83% | 8.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.96% | 11.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.50% | 11.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.25% | 21.00% |
| Category | DUK | AEP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Duke Energy Corporation | American Electric Power Company, Inc. |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Regulated Electric | Utilities - Regulated Electric |
| Core business | Duke Energy is the largest U.S. regulated electric utility by customer count — serving approximately 8.2 million electric customers in the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Duke's generation fleet transitions from coal toward natural gas, nuclear, solar, and offshore wind (Atlantic Shores in New Jersey and Santee Cooper SC wind). Duke also operates a gas distribution and generation business and has been selling non-core assets to focus on regulated utility operations. | American Electric Power is one of the largest U.S. electric utilities — serving approximately 5.6 million electric customers in 11 states (Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma). AEP operates one of the largest transmission networks in the country, delivering power across the Midwest and South. AEP's customer base includes significant industrial load (steel mills, chemical plants, oil refineries) in addition to residential and commercial customers. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Duke's regulated earnings growth (capital investment in grid modernization, new generation, and distribution), North Carolina and South Carolina rate case outcomes (regulatory approval of capital cost recovery), coal plant retirement and replacement capital, and Duke's 5-7% annual earnings growth guidance. | Investors track AEP's regulated utility earnings growth, transmission investment opportunity (AEP's large transmission network benefits from grid modernization and renewable interconnection), industrial load growth (particularly data centers and industrial electrification), and coal retirement capital program. |
- Largest regulated electric utility customer count in the U.S. creates scale advantages — Duke's 8.2 million customers provide a large rate base over which to earn regulated returns, and capital investments spread over more customers reduce individual rate impact
- Constructive regulatory relationships in Carolinas and Florida — Duke has generally favorable regulatory relationships in its core states; constructive rate cases allow timely recovery of capital investments in grid modernization and clean energy transition
- Nuclear generation provides clean baseload power in Southeast — Duke's 11 nuclear units provide large amounts of 24/7 carbon-free generation that supports clean energy commitments while avoiding the weather dependency of wind and solar
- Largest transmission network in the U.S. creates unique infrastructure position — AEP's 40,000+ miles of high-voltage transmission lines are critical infrastructure for moving electricity across the Midwest; transmission investment earns regulated returns approved by FERC and is a growing capital opportunity as renewable energy requires new transmission
- Industrial customer load growth from manufacturing reshoring and electrification — AEP's industrial customer base (steel, chemicals, oil refining) is benefiting from domestic manufacturing investment (Inflation Reduction Act incentives) and industrial electrification demand growth
- Regulated utility geography diversified across 11 states — AEP's multi-state operations diversify regulatory risk; unfavorable outcomes in one state's rate case are offset by constructive outcomes in others
- Coal retirement capital costs and replacement generation investment — Duke has hundreds of gigawatts of coal capacity to retire over the next decade; each retirement requires replacement generation investment (natural gas peakers, solar, battery storage) that must be approved by regulators
- Rate case outcomes and customer affordability — large capital programs (renewable transition, grid hardening) require rate increases; regulators must balance utility investment recovery with customer affordability constraints
- Extreme weather grid resilience requirements — Duke's territory in the Carolinas and Florida experiences hurricanes; post-hurricane grid restoration costs and capital investments for grid hardening are significant and recurring
- Texas ERCOT exposure through AEP Texas — AEP Texas operates distribution in Texas but is NOT an integrated ERCOT utility; it distributes ERCOT power to West Texas customers; ERCOT market dynamics (extreme weather events, market price volatility) do affect ERCOT distribution operations
- Coal retirement and replacement in Ohio and Kentucky — AEP's Midwestern states (Ohio, Kentucky) have significant coal generation to retire; replacement capital investment faces regulatory scrutiny in states where coal retirement has political sensitivity
- Load growth timing — while data center and industrial electrification demand is real, the timing of large load additions and associated transmission/distribution infrastructure investment can be lumpy and create earnings estimate volatility
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.