NRG vs CEG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NRG Energy and Constellation Energy both operate in competitive US power markets, but NRG focuses on integrated generation and retail electricity supply, while Constellation Energy is built around the largest carbon-free, primarily nuclear, generation fleet in the country, positioning it distinctly for data center power demand.
NRG offers exposure to integrated retail and generation power market dynamics, while CEG offers exposure to nuclear-anchored clean baseload power increasingly sought by data center operators. The decision depends on whether you prefer retail electricity market exposure or nuclear-driven clean power positioning.
NRG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CEG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-27.60% vs -42.46%), though NRG has the better forward P/E setup (9.92x vs 20.74x for CEG). On fundamentals, CEG is growing revenue faster (23.00%), while NRG maintains the higher operating margin (12.77%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NRG (+69.86%) than for CEG (+25.86%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to integrated power generation and retail electricity supply
- Value a diversified customer base spanning residential, commercial, and industrial segments
- Believe competitive deregulated power markets offer flexible commercial opportunities
- Prefer a power company less concentrated in a single generation technology
- Want exposure to the largest carbon-free power generation fleet in the United States
- Believe nuclear baseload power is increasingly attractive to data center and technology customers
- See long-term power purchase agreement contracting as a source of durable, visible revenue
- Value differentiated positioning around clean, reliable electricity generation
| Metric | NRG | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.8 | 50.3 |
| AI ranki | #125 | #469 |
| Latest closei | $92.31 | $253.45 |
| 1M returni | -8.35% | -3.95% |
| 3M returni | -34.55% | -7.62% |
| 6M returni | -42.24% | -19.16% |
| 1Y returni | -42.46% | -27.60% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NRG | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.64K (-43.6%) started 2025-10-23 | $6.93K (-30.7%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $28.23K (+182.3%) started 2021-10-25 | $64.27K (+542.7%) started 2022-01-19 |
| 10Y ago | $124.33K (+1143.3%) started 2016-10-24 | $64.27K (+542.7%) started 2022-01-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NRG | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $23.36B | $98.05B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 28.94 | 27.03 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.92 | 20.74 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.04 | 3.87 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.43 | 3.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $188.75 | $348.30 |
| Target upsidei | +69.86% | +25.86% |
| Metric | NRG | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.00% | 23.00% |
| Earnings growthi | -85.60% | -46.80% |
| EPS growthi | -85.60% | -46.80% |
| FCF margini | +2.33% | -21.19% |
| Operating margini | 12.77% | 8.66% |
| Profit margini | 2.56% | 11.08% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.77% | 15.06% |
| Return on equityi | 23.77% | 15.06% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.71% | 0.62% |
| Payout ratioi | 47.91% | 15.92% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| Debt/equityi | 483.36 | 76.42 |
| Current ratioi | 0.97 | 1.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.37 | 0.47 |
Over the past year, NRG and CEG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.71), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NRG | CEG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -43.65% | -30.71% |
| CAGRi | -43.69% | -30.75% | |
| Volatilityi | 49.22% | 48.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.01 | -0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.31 | -0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.84% | 41.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.84% | 36.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.62% | 25.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.38% | 27.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.48% | 10.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.13% | 15.28% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +149.79% | +522.65% |
| CAGRi | +20.11% | +46.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.90% | 49.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.54 | 0.94 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | 1.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.84% | 50.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.84% | 37.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.58% | 13.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.58% | 17.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.48% | 20.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.62% | 19.29% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +907.06% | +522.65% |
| CAGRi | +25.99% | +46.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.61% | 49.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.94 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.99 | 1.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.84% | 50.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.84% | 37.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.61% | 13.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.26% | 17.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.71% | 20.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.14% | 19.29% |
| Category | NRG | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NRG Energy, Inc. | Constellation Energy Corporation |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Utilities - Independent Power Producers |
| Core business | An integrated power company that generates and retails electricity and related energy services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across competitive US energy markets. | The largest producer of carbon-free electricity in the United States, operating a substantial nuclear power generation fleet alongside other clean energy assets and competitive retail electricity supply operations. |
| Investor focus | Retail electricity margin trends, generation fleet reliability and fuel mix, and capital allocation between growth investment and shareholder returns. | Nuclear fleet capacity factor and reliability, long-term power purchase agreement contracting, particularly with data center and technology customers, and clean energy policy support. |
- Integrated generation and retail model captures margin across both the wholesale and customer-facing sides of the electricity value chain
- Diversified customer base across residential, commercial, and industrial segments spreads demand risk across the economy
- Operating in competitive, deregulated power markets provides flexibility to adjust commercial strategy as market conditions shift
- Largest carbon-free power generation fleet in the country provides differentiated exposure to growing demand for reliable clean electricity
- Nuclear power's ability to provide constant baseload generation makes it especially attractive to large power buyers like data center operators
- Long-term power purchase agreement potential with technology and data center customers offers visibility into future contracted revenue
- Exposure to wholesale power price volatility can affect generation segment profitability during periods of extreme weather or fuel cost swings
- Competitive retail electricity markets require ongoing customer acquisition and retention investment
- Generation fleet composition and fuel mix decisions carry long-term capital and environmental policy considerations
- Nuclear plant operations carry unique regulatory, safety, and maintenance complexity relative to conventional fossil fuel generation
- Long-term power contract negotiations with large customers can take time to materialize and are subject to competitive bidding
- Policy support for nuclear and clean energy generation can shift with changes in government incentive programs
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