MPLX vs ET Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MPLX and Energy Transfer are both midstream MLPs generating fee-based cash flows and distributing them to unit holders. MPLX is smaller and simpler — primarily integrated with Marathon Petroleum's refining operations for captive revenue. Energy Transfer is vastly larger with more geographic diversity, LNG exposure, and Permian crude infrastructure, but also more leverage and distribution cut history. MPLX offers more stability; ET offers higher yield potential with more complexity.
MPLX vs ET is the Marathon Petroleum-sponsored MLP with captive refinery-integrated pipeline revenue and high distribution coverage stability (MPLX) versus the largest US midstream MLP platform with 125,000+ mile network, Permian crude and LNG export exposure, and higher yield potential with more leverage and distribution history complexity (Energy Transfer) — sponsor-integrated stability vs midstream scale and LNG growth.
ET holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ET leads on both 1-year return (+29.07%) and forward P/E quality (12.03x vs 12.15x for MPLX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, ET is growing revenue faster (78.40%), while MPLX maintains the higher operating margin (38.25%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ET (+16.75%) than for MPLX (+7.21%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the simpler, more stable MLP with Marathon Petroleum sponsor integration providing captive pipeline revenue and high distribution coverage from long-term contracts
- value MPLX's distribution consistency and coverage ratio stability vs Energy Transfer's more complex leverage and historical distribution cut
- want midstream MLP income with Marathon Petroleum's refining volumes providing relatively predictable fee-based revenue base
- are comfortable with MLP K-1 tax complexity, MPC sponsor concentration risk, and refinery utilization sensitivity to fuel demand cycles
- prefer the largest US midstream platform with geographic and commodity diversification across 44 states providing exposure to natural gas, crude oil, NGLs, and LNG exports
- value Energy Transfer's Permian crude and Gulf Coast LNG export infrastructure positioning for structural midstream demand growth
- want higher yield potential from one of the largest MLP platforms at potentially discounted valuation due to leverage and distribution history concerns
- are comfortable with elevated leverage requiring ongoing reduction, historical distribution cut creating income reliability questions, and operational complexity across 125,000+ pipeline miles
| Metric | MPLX | ET |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.0 | 45.9 |
| AI ranki | #972 | #738 |
| Latest closei | $58.62 | $21.05 |
| 1M returni | -1.25% | -1.73% |
| 6M returni | +4.41% | +14.83% |
| 1Y returni | +24.22% | +29.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MPLX | ET |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.46K (+34.6%) started 2025-09-17 | $13.91K (+39.1%) started 2025-09-17 |
| 5Y ago | $54.49K (+444.9%) started 2021-09-17 | $55.49K (+454.9%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $183.5K (+1735.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $103.99K (+939.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MPLX | ET |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $59.43B | $72.48B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.45 | 14.42 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.15 | 12.03 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.94 | 0.68 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.04 | 1.50 |
| Analyst targeti | $62.85 | $24.58 |
| Target upsidei | +7.21% | +16.75% |
| Metric | MPLX | ET |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.60% | 78.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 3.20% | 85.30% |
| EPS growthi | +3.20% | +85.30% |
| FCF margini | +11.35% | +2.94% |
| Operating margini | 38.25% | 10.41% |
| Profit margini | 39.28% | 4.92% |
| ROIC proxyi | 33.69% | 14.56% |
| Return on equityi | 33.69% | 14.56% |
| Dividend yieldi | 7.35% | 6.46% |
| Payout ratioi | 90.02% | 91.44% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 3 yrs | 4 yrs |
| Betai | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| Debt/equityi | 183.36 | 138.33 |
| Current ratioi | 0.89 | 1.16 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.81 | 0.91 |
Over the past year, MPLX and ET have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.47), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MPLX | ET |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +24.22% | +29.07% |
| CAGRi | +24.24% | +29.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 16.46% | 16.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.13 | 1.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.66 | 2.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 7.71% | 8.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.67% | 3.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.43% | 2.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 3.15% | 3.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 2.64% | 2.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.19% | 5.20% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +216.94% | +243.36% |
| CAGRi | +25.95% | +27.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.82% | 24.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.09 | 0.96 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.57 | 1.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.46% | 24.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.67% | 3.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.87% | 5.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.24% | 7.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.07% | 8.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.94% | 16.44% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +343.66% | +193.15% |
| CAGRi | +16.08% | +11.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.36% | 33.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.75 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.21% | 72.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.67% | 3.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.82% | 16.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.12% | 24.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.61% | 27.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.62% | 44.00% |
| Category | MPLX | ET |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MPLX LP | Energy Transfer LP |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Midstream | Oil & Gas Midstream |
| Core business | MPLX is a master limited partnership (MLP) that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure — crude oil, refined product, and natural gas pipelines, terminals, and processing facilities. MPLX's sponsor is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — one of the largest US oil refiners. MPLX's assets are closely integrated with Marathon's refining operations, providing stable fee-based cash flows from long-term contracts. MPLX's pipeline network spans the Midwest and Gulf Coast, supporting both crude delivery to Marathon refineries and product distribution from those refineries. | Energy Transfer is one of the largest US midstream MLP companies with 125,000+ miles of pipelines transporting natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refined products across 44 states. Energy Transfer's asset network includes the Permian Express crude pipeline, Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), and significant Gulf Coast LNG export infrastructure. Energy Transfer's scale and geographic diversity make it one of the most comprehensive US midstream platforms, serving multiple producers, refiners, and exporters. |
| Investor focus | Investors track distributable cash flow (DCF), distribution coverage ratio, distribution per unit growth, and debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio. | Investors track DCF per unit, distribution growth, leverage reduction toward 4.0x–4.5x target, and new project development funding. |
- Marathon Petroleum sponsor alignment: MPLX's contracts with MPC provide captive revenue streams — Marathon sends volumes through MPLX infrastructure regardless of commodity prices
- High distribution yield with consistent coverage: MPLX pays generous quarterly distributions well-covered by distributable cash flow
- Fee-based revenue model: MPLX's pipeline tariffs and gathering fees provide revenue largely independent of commodity prices
- Scale and geographic diversification: Energy Transfer's 125,000+ mile network across 44 states creates unmatched infrastructure diversification and revenue diversification across commodities and markets
- Natural gas and LNG export exposure: Energy Transfer's Gulf Coast infrastructure is positioned for LNG export demand growth as global natural gas demand increases
- Large Permian Basin crude takeaway position: DAPL and Permian Express crude pipelines carry significant Permian crude oil to Gulf Coast refiners and export terminals
- MPC sponsor concentration risk: MPLX's revenue is heavily dependent on Marathon Petroleum's refining volumes — MPC operational issues or strategic changes affect MPLX
- Refinery utilization rates affect crude delivery volumes through MPLX pipelines — economic slowdowns reducing fuel demand reduce Marathon throughput
- MLP K-1 tax forms: MPLX generates partnership K-1 tax forms — complicating tax filing vs C-corp investments and limiting IRA suitability
- Energy Transfer's leverage remains elevated — multiple acquisitions (Enable Midstream, Crestwood) increased debt levels requiring balance sheet repair
- Distribution per unit has been cut in the past — Energy Transfer cut its distribution during COVID-19 and 2020 commodity downturn, raising reliability questions vs peers
- Operational complexity of 125,000 miles of pipeline across multiple commodity types and markets creates execution risk and regulatory compliance burden
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