CVX vs BP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chevron and BP are both international oil majors, but Chevron's capital discipline and consistent dividend growth track record make it structurally superior to BP's strategic volatility. BP's renewable pivot followed by reversal has damaged investor confidence. Chevron's Tengiz and Permian assets provide clear production growth; BP's trading business is an underappreciated asset. Chevron is the quality choice; BP is the higher-risk recovery thesis.
CVX vs BP is the US integrated major with 36+ years of consecutive dividend growth, Tengiz Kazakhstan expansion, and capital discipline through oil cycles (Chevron) versus the European oil major recovering from a disruptive renewable strategy pivot with valuable trading operations and more leveraged balance sheet (BP) — energy capital discipline and dividend aristocrat vs energy strategy recovery and trading strength.
BP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BP leads on both 1-year return (+35.64%) and forward P/E quality (9.16x vs 15.25x for CVX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CVX leads on both revenue growth (53.50%) and operating margin (21.87%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +8.14% for CVX and +9.01% for BP.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the US oil major with 36-year dividend growth track record, conservative balance sheet, and Tengiz Kazakhstan as the primary near-term production growth project
- value Chevron's capital discipline reputation — consistently investing only in projects that generate returns through the oil cycle rather than chasing growth at any price
- want reliable energy dividend income with Chevron's dividend growth history providing energy income stability through oil price volatility
- are comfortable with Hess acquisition uncertainty from ExxonMobil arbitration, Tengiz project execution risk, and oil price sensitivity to earnings
- prefer the energy recovery story as BP reverses the value-destructive renewable pivot and refocuses on oil and gas profitability — buying the strategy reset at discount vs US peers
- value BP's trading business as an underappreciated differentiator generating income through energy price arbitrage relatively independently of production cycles
- want higher-risk energy exposure with potential for multiple expansion as BP executes its strategy reset and balance sheet improvement
- are comfortable with BP's strategy flip-flop credibility damage, higher leverage vs US peers limiting capital returns, and European political energy company complexity
| Metric | CVX | BP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.0 | 44.8 |
| AI ranki | #362 | #801 |
| Latest closei | $209.51 | $44.58 |
| 1M returni | +1.82% | +1.94% |
| 6M returni | +4.01% | +1.93% |
| 1Y returni | +31.90% | +35.64% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CVX | BP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.19K (+31.9%) started 2025-09-18 | $14.27K (+42.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $30.21K (+202.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $30.51K (+205.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $48.51K (+385.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $49.74K (+397.4%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CVX | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $395.97B | $114.81B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.41 | 21.23 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.25 | 9.16 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.24 | 0.53 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.06 | 2.39 |
| Analyst targeti | $218.29 | $48.59 |
| Target upsidei | +8.14% | +9.01% |
| Metric | CVX | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 53.50% | 48.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 321.90% | 138.90% |
| EPS growthi | +321.90% | +138.90% |
| FCF margini | +10.48% | +5.98% |
| Operating margini | 21.87% | 13.15% |
| Profit margini | 9.83% | 2.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.23% | 8.87% |
| Return on equityi | 12.23% | 8.87% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.56% | 4.52% |
| Payout ratioi | 67.18% | 95.39% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 4 yrs |
| Betai | 0.49 | -0.22 |
| Debt/equityi | 18.96 | 95.12 |
| Current ratioi | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.84 | 0.77 |
Over the past year, CVX and BP have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.72), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CVX | BP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +31.90% | +35.64% |
| CAGRi | +31.93% | +35.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.73% | 29.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.10 | 1.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.60 | 1.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.53% | 23.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.79% | 5.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.15% | 5.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.12% | 7.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.59% | 6.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.53% | 9.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +157.01% | +130.35% |
| CAGRi | +20.80% | +18.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.21% | 28.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.70 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.98 | 0.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.95% | 30.64% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.79% | 5.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.00% | 9.22% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.75% | 11.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.22% | 9.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.74% | 22.77% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +210.01% | +134.49% |
| CAGRi | +11.98% | +8.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.31% | 31.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.38 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.54 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.77% | 63.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.79% | 5.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.56% | 15.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.53% | 20.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.12% | 19.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.70% | 34.67% |
| Category | CVX | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chevron Corporation | BP p.l.c. |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | Chevron is the second-largest US integrated oil and gas company with operations in Kazakhstan (Tengiz), Gulf of Mexico, Permian Basin, Australia LNG (Gorgon, Wheatstone), and West Africa. Chevron's Tengizchevroil (TCO) expansion project in Kazakhstan is the company's largest current growth project. Chevron's proposed Hess acquisition would add Guyana offshore assets alongside ExxonMobil — but faces arbitration challenges from ExxonMobil over rights of first refusal. Chevron is known for consistent dividend growth and capital returns. | BP is one of the world's largest energy companies, with oil and gas production, trading, and marketing operations globally. BP experienced a dramatic strategic pivot under former CEO Bernard Looney — committing to dramatic renewable energy investment and oil production cuts. BP has since reversed course under CEO Murray Auchincloss, reducing renewable commitments and refocusing on oil and gas profitability. BP's trading business is one of its strongest assets. BP's balance sheet carries more debt than US peers, limiting capital return flexibility. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Tengiz production ramp, Hess acquisition outcome and Guyana development access, Permian Basin production, and free cash flow through oil price cycles. | Investors track oil and gas production, strategy consistency, balance sheet improvement, and dividend sustainability after the strategy reversal. |
- Tengiz expansion in Kazakhstan: TCO's expansion adds ~260,000 barrels per day of new production — Chevron's most significant medium-term production growth project
- Consistent dividend growth: Chevron has raised its dividend for 36+ consecutive years, making it one of the most reliable dividend growth stocks in energy
- Integrated balance sheet strength: Chevron's conservative balance sheet with low leverage enables dividends and buybacks through oil price downturns
- Trading business: BP's integrated gas and oil trading operations generate significant earnings through energy market price arbitrage — a trading competency that generates income relatively independently of production volumes
- Global upstream diversification across Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Africa, and Middle East provides geographic risk diversification
- Strategy reset toward oil and gas profitability reduces the capital destruction from low-return renewable investments that eroded BP's shareholder returns during the pivot period
- Hess acquisition uncertainty: ExxonMobil and CNOOC arbitration over Guyana rights of first refusal creates significant uncertainty about whether Chevron ultimately gains Hess's Guyana stake
- Tengiz execution risk: large Kazakhstan expansion project has faced delays and cost overruns — completion execution is critical for production guidance
- Oil price sensitivity remains high — Chevron's earnings and free cash flow are significantly correlated with crude oil prices
- BP's strategy flip-flop undermines investor confidence — committing to be 'net zero' then reversing creates uncertainty about management consistency and long-term direction
- Higher leverage vs US peers: BP's balance sheet carries more debt, limiting capital return capacity and creating more sensitivity to low oil prices
- European political pressure on oil companies creates ongoing strategic tension — BP must balance UK/European political expectations with shareholder return maximization
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