BP vs SHEL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BP and Shell are both major European integrated oil and gas companies trading as US ADRs, but Shell has built a leading global LNG trading position that differentiates it, while BP has pursued a more variable strategic path between low-carbon investment and traditional oil and gas operations.
BP offers potential upside if its energy transition and upstream discipline strategy gains consistency, while SHEL offers a more diversified, LNG-anchored integrated model. The decision depends on whether you value Shell's LNG leadership and strategic consistency or BP's transition-linked optionality.
SHEL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SHEL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+45.28% vs +43.51%), though BP has the better forward P/E setup (8.23x vs 9.48x for SHEL). On fundamentals, BP is growing revenue faster (41.40%), while SHEL maintains the higher operating margin (18.76%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BP (+14.35%) than for SHEL (+4.43%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a European oil major with growing low-carbon energy investments
- Believe upstream production discipline can support improving cash flow generation
- Are comfortable with some uncertainty around long-term strategic direction
- See potential value in a company still working through its energy transition strategy
- Prefer exposure to the leading global LNG trading and shipping franchise
- Value a diversified integrated energy model spanning upstream, downstream, and trading
- Want a European oil major with a demonstrated capital return track record
- Believe global natural gas demand growth will continue supporting LNG-focused strategies
| Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 46.3 | 53.6 |
| AI ranki | #777 | #893 |
| Latest closei | $47.59 | $104.20 |
| 1M returni | +6.25% | +8.28% |
| 3M returni | +13.51% | +17.00% |
| 6M returni | +4.79% | +18.23% |
| 1Y returni | +43.51% | +45.28% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.1K (+51.0%) started 2025-11-03 | $15.07K (+50.7%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $29.62K (+196.2%) started 2021-11-04 | $34.21K (+242.1%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $52.94K (+429.4%) started 2016-11-04 | $59.59K (+495.9%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $122.58B | $295.45B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.04 | 9.05 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.23 | 9.48 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.52 | 0.92 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.29 | 1.06 |
| Analyst targeti | $54.42 | $108.81 |
| Target upsidei | +14.35% | +4.43% |
| Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 41.40% | 36.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 305.00% | 136.70% |
| EPS growthi | +305.00% | +136.70% |
| FCF margini | +7.24% | +9.04% |
| Operating margini | 18.59% | 18.76% |
| Profit margini | 3.84% | 10.18% |
| ROIC proxyi | 13.42% | 17.43% |
| Return on equityi | 13.42% | 17.43% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.34% | 2.98% |
| Payout ratioi | 58.61% | 26.24% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 4 yrs | 3 yrs |
| Betai | -0.25 | -0.24 |
| Debt/equityi | 87.47 | 38.13 |
| Current ratioi | 1.29 | 1.38 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.93 |
Over the past year, BP and SHEL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.81), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +43.51% | +45.28% |
| CAGRi | +43.54% | +45.32% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.37% | 23.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.20 | 1.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.69 | 2.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.23% | 17.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.27% | 4.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.30% | 4.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.27% | 5.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.38% | 5.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.73% | 8.20% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +123.58% | +179.43% |
| CAGRi | +17.47% | +22.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.79% | 24.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.78 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.77 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.64% | 25.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.27% | 4.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.07% | 5.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.26% | 7.01% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.44% | 8.08% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.77% | 18.21% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +149.57% | +230.28% |
| CAGRi | +9.58% | +12.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.53% | 29.88% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.91% | 67.24% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.27% | 4.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.51% | 13.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.94% | 20.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.10% | 17.17% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.67% | 37.32% |
| Category | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | BP p.l.c. | Shell plc |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | An integrated oil and gas company engaged in upstream exploration and production, downstream refining and marketing, and a growing set of low-carbon and renewable energy investments across global markets. | An integrated energy company with global upstream oil and gas production, a substantial liquefied natural gas trading and shipping business, downstream refining and chemicals operations, and renewable energy investments. |
| Investor focus | Upstream production discipline, progress and returns on low-carbon energy investments, and dividend and buyback consistency following past strategic resets. | LNG portfolio performance and trading results, capital discipline across upstream and renewables spending, and shareholder return consistency through buybacks and dividends. |
- Integrated upstream and downstream operations provide diversified exposure across the oil and gas value chain
- Ongoing investment in lower-carbon energy businesses positions the company for a longer-term energy transition
- Global operational footprint spans multiple producing regions, reducing reliance on any single geographic basin
- Leading global LNG trading and shipping position provides differentiated exposure to growing global natural gas demand
- Diversified integrated model spanning upstream, downstream, chemicals, and trading smooths earnings across commodity cycles
- Consistent capital return program through buybacks and dividends has supported shareholder confidence following prior restructuring
- Past strategic shifts in capital allocation toward and away from low-carbon investments have created uncertainty about long-term direction
- Legacy environmental liabilities remain a consideration for the company's overall risk profile
- Cash flow remains sensitive to global oil and gas price cycles despite diversification efforts
- Earnings remain exposed to global oil, gas, and refining margin cycles despite diversification across business segments
- Balancing continued fossil fuel investment against energy transition pressure from investors and regulators requires ongoing strategic navigation
- Complex global trading operations add earnings variability that can be harder for investors to forecast
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