BP vs SHEL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BP and Shell are both major European integrated oil and gas companies trading as US ADRs, but Shell has built a leading global LNG trading position that differentiates it, while BP has pursued a more variable strategic path between low-carbon investment and traditional oil and gas operations.
BP offers potential upside if its energy transition and upstream discipline strategy gains consistency, while SHEL offers a more diversified, LNG-anchored integrated model. The decision depends on whether you value Shell's LNG leadership and strategic consistency or BP's transition-linked optionality.
SHEL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SHEL leads on both 1-year return (+37.26%) and forward P/E quality (9.14x vs 9.16x for BP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, BP is growing revenue faster (48.20%), while SHEL maintains the higher operating margin (16.69%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +9.01% for BP and +6.14% for SHEL.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a European oil major with growing low-carbon energy investments
- Believe upstream production discipline can support improving cash flow generation
- Are comfortable with some uncertainty around long-term strategic direction
- See potential value in a company still working through its energy transition strategy
- Prefer exposure to the leading global LNG trading and shipping franchise
- Value a diversified integrated energy model spanning upstream, downstream, and trading
- Want a European oil major with a demonstrated capital return track record
- Believe global natural gas demand growth will continue supporting LNG-focused strategies
| Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 44.8 | 42.8 |
| AI ranki | #801 | #918 |
| Latest closei | $44.58 | $94.54 |
| 1M returni | +1.94% | +1.91% |
| 6M returni | +1.93% | +6.41% |
| 1Y returni | +35.64% | +37.26% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.27K (+42.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $14.24K (+42.4%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $30.51K (+205.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $35.27K (+252.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $49.74K (+397.4%) started 2016-09-19 | $57.32K (+473.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $114.81B | $269.99B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 21.23 | 10.60 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.16 | 9.14 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.53 | 0.91 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.39 | 1.03 |
| Analyst targeti | $48.59 | $100.35 |
| Target upsidei | +9.01% | +6.14% |
| Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 48.20% | 44.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 138.90% | 220.00% |
| EPS growthi | +138.90% | +220.00% |
| FCF margini | +5.98% | +7.23% |
| Operating margini | 13.15% | 16.69% |
| Profit margini | 2.55% | 8.76% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.87% | 14.34% |
| Return on equityi | 8.87% | 14.34% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.52% | 3.31% |
| Payout ratioi | 95.39% | 32.71% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 4 yrs | 3 yrs |
| Betai | -0.22 | -0.22 |
| Debt/equityi | 95.12 | 40.20 |
| Current ratioi | 1.27 | 1.44 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.77 | 0.98 |
Over the past year, BP and SHEL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.80), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +35.64% | +37.26% |
| CAGRi | +35.67% | +37.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.30% | 22.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.04 | 1.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.45 | 1.90 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.23% | 17.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.07% | 4.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.30% | 4.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.25% | 5.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.38% | 5.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.73% | 8.20% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +130.35% | +188.07% |
| CAGRi | +18.19% | +23.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.59% | 24.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.80 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | 1.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.64% | 25.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.07% | 4.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.22% | 5.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.36% | 7.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.44% | 8.08% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.77% | 18.21% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +134.49% | +217.74% |
| CAGRi | +8.90% | +12.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.40% | 29.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.91% | 67.24% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.07% | 4.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.51% | 13.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.93% | 20.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.10% | 17.17% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.67% | 37.32% |
| Category | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | BP p.l.c. | Shell plc |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | An integrated oil and gas company engaged in upstream exploration and production, downstream refining and marketing, and a growing set of low-carbon and renewable energy investments across global markets. | An integrated energy company with global upstream oil and gas production, a substantial liquefied natural gas trading and shipping business, downstream refining and chemicals operations, and renewable energy investments. |
| Investor focus | Upstream production discipline, progress and returns on low-carbon energy investments, and dividend and buyback consistency following past strategic resets. | LNG portfolio performance and trading results, capital discipline across upstream and renewables spending, and shareholder return consistency through buybacks and dividends. |
- Integrated upstream and downstream operations provide diversified exposure across the oil and gas value chain
- Ongoing investment in lower-carbon energy businesses positions the company for a longer-term energy transition
- Global operational footprint spans multiple producing regions, reducing reliance on any single geographic basin
- Leading global LNG trading and shipping position provides differentiated exposure to growing global natural gas demand
- Diversified integrated model spanning upstream, downstream, chemicals, and trading smooths earnings across commodity cycles
- Consistent capital return program through buybacks and dividends has supported shareholder confidence following prior restructuring
- Past strategic shifts in capital allocation toward and away from low-carbon investments have created uncertainty about long-term direction
- Legacy environmental liabilities remain a consideration for the company's overall risk profile
- Cash flow remains sensitive to global oil and gas price cycles despite diversification efforts
- Earnings remain exposed to global oil, gas, and refining margin cycles despite diversification across business segments
- Balancing continued fossil fuel investment against energy transition pressure from investors and regulators requires ongoing strategic navigation
- Complex global trading operations add earnings variability that can be harder for investors to forecast
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