OKLO vs BWXT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Oklo is a speculative, pre-commercial small modular reactor developer whose value depends on regulatory approval and eventual reactor deployment, while BWX Technologies is an established, profitable nuclear manufacturer with decades of government and commercial contracts. Oklo offers higher potential upside tied to the SMR buildout narrative but with meaningfully higher execution risk, while BWXT offers steadier, already-proven nuclear supply chain exposure. The choice depends on risk tolerance and time horizon for the nuclear power theme to play out.
Use this comparison to weigh speculative, high-risk SMR development exposure (Oklo) against established, cash-generative nuclear supply chain exposure (BWX Technologies) within the broader nuclear energy theme.
BWXT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BWXT leads on both 1-year return (-32.69%) and forward P/E quality (29.50x vs -39.36x for OKLO), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OKLO (+102.11%) than for BWXT (+51.26%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct, early-stage exposure to the small modular reactor buildout
- Are comfortable with pre-revenue to early-revenue risk and ongoing losses
- Believe data center power demand will accelerate SMR adoption
- Can tolerate high volatility tied to regulatory and construction milestones
- Prefer an established, profitable nuclear business with government-backed revenue
- Want steadier growth with lower execution risk than pre-commercial SMR developers
- Value long-term contract visibility over speculative upside
- Still want exposure to rising nuclear sector demand through the supply chain
| Metric | OKLO | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.1 | 46.1 |
| AI ranki | #1101 | #629 |
| Latest closei | $30.01 | $137.20 |
| 1M returni | -16.59% | -6.48% |
| 3M returni | -28.03% | -21.03% |
| 6M returni | -53.26% | -40.55% |
| 1Y returni | -82.51% | -32.69% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OKLO | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $1.75K (-82.5%) started 2025-10-15 | $6.56K (-34.4%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $30.65K (+206.5%) started 2021-10-15 | $24.26K (+142.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $30.07K (+200.7%) started 2021-07-08 | $35.77K (+257.7%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | OKLO | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.35B | $14.2B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 40.16 |
| Forward P/Ei | -39.36 | 29.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3889.31 | 4.61 |
| Analyst targeti | $79.88 | $234.45 |
| Target upsidei | +102.11% | +51.26% |
| Metric | OKLO | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | N/A | 18.00% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 14.10% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +14.10% |
| FCF margini | -19778.92% | +4.14% |
| Operating margini | -6048.76% | 10.39% |
| Profit margini | 0.00% | 10.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.70% | 28.29% |
| Return on equityi | -7.70% | 28.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.66% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 26.94% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.20 | 0.76 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.12 | 151.40 |
| Current ratioi | 48.46 | 2.40 |
| Quick ratioi | 47.63 | 2.26 |
Over the past year, OKLO and BWXT have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.57), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | OKLO | BWXT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -82.51% | -34.36% |
| CAGRi | -82.53% | -34.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 93.87% | 44.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.44 | -0.82 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.98 | -1.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.07% | 43.65% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.51% | 42.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 60.54% | 17.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 62.62% | 21.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.13% | 9.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.98% | 12.84% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +206.54% | +142.62% |
| CAGRi | +25.12% | +19.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 87.85% | 34.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.05 | 0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.32% | 43.65% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.77% | 42.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.94% | 9.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.17% | 13.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 53.65% | 12.68% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.12% | 12.84% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +200.70% | +257.66% |
| CAGRi | +23.23% | +13.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 85.51% | 31.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.01 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.32% | 48.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.77% | 42.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.84% | 14.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.23% | 18.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 53.65% | 23.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.12% | 30.21% |
| Category | OKLO | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Oklo Inc. | BWX Technologies, Inc. |
| Sector | Utilities | Industrials |
| Industry | Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Oklo is developing small modular fission reactors (Aurora powerhouses) aimed at providing dedicated power for data centers and other high-demand customers, with early reactors targeting first power later this decade. | BWXT manufactures nuclear reactor components and fuel for the U.S. Navy and government nuclear programs, and supplies commercial nuclear power and medical isotope products. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch regulatory milestones such as reactor criticality and licensing progress, the pace of signed customer power agreements, and cash runway against ongoing losses. | Investors focus on government nuclear program backlog, growth in commercial nuclear services tied to reactor life extensions and new builds, and steady margin expansion. |
- Achieved criticality at a demonstration small modular reactor, a key technical and regulatory milestone
- Roughly 14 GW of customer agreements tied to future AI and data center power demand
- Large cash position relative to near-term burn rate provides multi-year runway
- Long-standing, defense-backed government contracts provide highly stable, multi-decade revenue visibility
- Established manufacturing base and specialized expertise create high barriers to entry
- Growing commercial nuclear opportunity from reactor uprates, life extensions, and new SMR component supply
- Pre-revenue to early-revenue stage with ongoing net losses and negative free cash flow
- First commercial power delivery not expected until 2027-2028, leaving execution risk over a multi-year horizon
- Nuclear regulatory and permitting timelines can slip and are largely outside company control
- Growth is more gradual than emerging SMR pure plays, since the bulk of revenue is tied to established government programs
- Government budget and defense spending priorities can affect program funding and timing
- Valuation has re-rated higher alongside broader nuclear sector enthusiasm
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