NEE vs ATO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NextEra Energy and Atmos Energy are both well-regarded utility companies, but NextEra combines a regulated Florida electric utility with the world's largest renewable energy generation business, while Atmos Energy is a pure-play natural gas distribution utility focused on steady, regulated infrastructure investment.
NEE offers a blend of regulated utility stability and renewable energy growth, while ATO offers a simpler, pure-play regulated natural gas utility model. The decision depends on whether you prefer renewable growth exposure or a more predictable single-fuel regulated business.
NEE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NEE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-0.89% vs -2.76%), though ATO has the better forward P/E setup (18.10x vs 18.65x for NEE). On fundamentals, NEE is growing revenue faster (12.40%), while ATO maintains the higher operating margin (37.22%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NEE (+20.22%) than for ATO (+14.31%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the world's largest renewable energy generation business
- Value a regulated Florida utility base supported by population growth
- Believe long-term clean energy demand will continue supporting growth
- Prefer a diversified utility model over a single-fuel regulated business
- Prefer a simpler, pure-play regulated natural gas distribution business
- Value visible rate base growth from infrastructure modernization investment
- Want a utility with less exposure to merchant power price risk
- Believe consistent regulatory relationships support steady long-term dividend growth
| Metric | NEE | ATO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.1 | 50.7 |
| AI ranki | #455 | #482 |
| Latest closei | $82.10 | $172.21 |
| 1M returni | +6.60% | +10.22% |
| 3M returni | -8.55% | -3.91% |
| 6M returni | -13.83% | -7.14% |
| 1Y returni | -0.89% | -2.76% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NEE | ATO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.86K (-1.4%) started 2025-10-23 | $9.8K (-2.0%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2021-10-25 | $21.97K (+119.7%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $41.24K (+312.4%) started 2016-10-24 | $36.75K (+267.5%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NEE | ATO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $170.72B | $27.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.39 | 19.45 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.65 | 18.10 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.88 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 10.07 | 7.59 |
| Analyst targeti | $98.39 | $186.55 |
| Target upsidei | +20.22% | +14.31% |
| Metric | NEE | ATO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.40% | 4.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 53.10% | 23.30% |
| EPS growthi | +53.10% | +23.30% |
| FCF margini | -61.91% | -45.13% |
| Operating margini | 31.52% | 37.22% |
| Profit margini | 32.40% | 28.50% |
| ROIC proxyi | 11.68% | 9.79% |
| Return on equityi | 11.68% | 9.79% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.05% | 2.45% |
| Payout ratioi | 43.89% | 46.13% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| Debt/equityi | 161.68 | 67.66 |
| Current ratioi | 0.53 | 0.81 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.35 | 0.54 |
Over the past year, NEE and ATO have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.58), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NEE | ATO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -1.38% | -2.01% |
| CAGRi | -1.38% | -2.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.20% | 15.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | -0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.24 | -0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.87% | 18.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.12% | 10.44% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.97% | 7.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.12% | 8.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.63% | 2.64% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.96% | 6.00% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +6.60% | +100.03% |
| CAGRi | +1.29% | +14.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.89% | 18.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.02 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.02 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.97% | 19.08% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.12% | 10.44% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.05% | 4.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.84% | 6.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.97% | 4.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.71% | 10.13% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +226.24% | +193.70% |
| CAGRi | +12.56% | +11.38% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.48% | 21.19% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.59 | 0.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.97% | 32.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.12% | 10.44% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.58% | 6.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.46% | 9.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.42% | 12.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.36% | 18.04% |
| Category | NEE | ATO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Atmos Energy Corporation |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Regulated Electric | Utilities - Regulated Gas |
| Core business | A diversified energy company operating one of the largest regulated electric utilities in Florida alongside the world's largest generator of renewable energy from wind and solar sources through its competitive energy business. | A natural gas-only regulated utility company that distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across multiple states, with a substantial infrastructure modernization investment program. |
| Investor focus | Renewable energy development pipeline growth, regulated Florida utility rate base expansion, and earnings growth guidance consistency. | Regulated rate base growth from pipeline safety and modernization investment, regulatory relationship quality across its multi-state service territories, and dividend growth consistency. |
- Position as the largest global renewable energy generator provides differentiated exposure to long-term clean energy demand growth
- Regulated Florida utility operations provide a stable earnings base supported by a growing service territory population
- Long track record of consistent earnings and dividend growth has built strong investor confidence over many years
- Pure-play natural gas distribution focus provides a simpler, more predictable regulated business model than diversified utility peers
- Substantial infrastructure modernization investment program supports steady, visible rate base growth over a multi-year horizon
- Long track record of consistent dividend increases reflects the stability of its regulated natural gas utility earnings
- Competitive renewable energy business carries more merchant power price risk than the fully regulated utility segment
- Interest rate sensitivity affects financing costs for the substantial capital investment required in renewable project development
- Hurricane and severe weather exposure in Florida creates operational and cost risk for the regulated utility business
- Natural gas-only focus provides less diversification than utilities with electric, renewable, or multi-fuel generation exposure
- Long-term natural gas demand trends face some uncertainty amid broader electrification and energy transition policy discussions
- Continued large-scale infrastructure investment requires ongoing access to capital markets at reasonable financing costs
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