TLN vs CEG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Talen Energy offers a more concentrated, single-plant-driven bet on nuclear power supplying AI data center demand, anchored by its landmark Amazon Web Services power agreement, while Constellation Energy offers the largest, most diversified U.S. nuclear fleet with multiple hyperscaler relationships including its Crane Clean Energy Center restart for Microsoft. Both are direct beneficiaries of surging AI data center electricity demand and the premium placed on carbon-free, dispatchable nuclear power.
Use this TLN vs CEG comparison to evaluate two ways to invest in the AI-driven nuclear power demand cycle. Talen offers a more concentrated, higher-torque bet tied to a single flagship hyperscaler agreement; Constellation offers broader diversification across a larger nuclear fleet and multiple hyperscaler relationships.
TLN holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TLN leads on both 1-year return (-14.96%) and forward P/E quality (9.82x vs 20.74x for CEG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TLN is growing revenue faster (111.20%), while CEG maintains the higher operating margin (8.66%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TLN (+52.28%) than for CEG (+25.86%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a more concentrated, higher-torque bet on nuclear power directly supplying AI data center demand
- Value the landmark Amazon Web Services power agreement as a flagship contracted revenue source
- Are comfortable with less diversification than a larger nuclear utility peer
- Believe co-located nuclear-to-data-center power arrangements will become an increasingly common model
- Want the largest, most diversified U.S. nuclear fleet with multiple hyperscaler relationships
- Believe hyperscaler demand for clean, dispatchable baseload power will command a durable premium across many plants, not just one
- Prefer a larger balance sheet and broader diversification than a smaller independent power producer
- Want exposure to the Calpine acquisition as a scale-building catalyst
| Metric | TLN | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.5 | 50.0 |
| AI ranki | #248 | #433 |
| Latest closei | $353.60 | $275.00 |
| 1M returni | +25.32% | +5.81% |
| 3M returni | -3.99% | +9.23% |
| 6M returni | -2.43% | -8.07% |
| 1Y returni | -14.96% | -31.92% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TLN | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.46K (-15.4%) started 2025-10-16 | $6.94K (-30.6%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $76.04K (+660.4%) started 2023-06-02 | $69.74K (+597.4%) started 2022-01-19 |
| 10Y ago | $76.04K (+660.4%) started 2023-06-02 | $69.74K (+597.4%) started 2022-01-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TLN | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $14.47B | $98.05B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 27.03 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.82 | 20.74 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 3.87 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.26 | 3.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $459.94 | $348.30 |
| Target upsidei | +52.28% | +25.86% |
| Metric | TLN | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 111.20% | 23.00% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -46.80% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -46.80% |
| FCF margini | +33.73% | -21.19% |
| Operating margini | -4.80% | 8.66% |
| Profit margini | -4.95% | 11.08% |
| ROIC proxyi | -12.83% | 15.06% |
| Return on equityi | -12.83% | 15.06% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.62% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 15.92% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.67 | 1.12 |
| Debt/equityi | 584.14 | 76.42 |
| Current ratioi | 0.78 | 1.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.40 | 0.47 |
Over the past year, TLN and CEG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.79), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TLN | CEG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -15.41% | -30.65% |
| CAGRi | -15.44% | -30.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.59% | 48.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.09 | -0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.13 | -0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.60% | 41.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.29% | 31.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.89% | 25.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.87% | 27.02% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.31% | 10.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.22% | 15.28% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +660.43% | +575.59% |
| CAGRi | +82.48% | +49.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.75% | 49.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.36 | 0.98 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.01 | 1.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.71% | 50.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.69% | 31.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.87% | 13.19% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.05% | 17.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.59% | 20.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.21% | 19.29% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +660.43% | +575.59% |
| CAGRi | +82.48% | +49.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.75% | 49.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.36 | 0.98 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.01 | 1.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.71% | 50.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.69% | 31.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.87% | 13.19% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.05% | 17.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.59% | 20.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.21% | 19.29% |
| Category | TLN | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Talen Energy Corporation | Constellation Energy Corporation |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Utilities - Independent Power Producers |
| Core business | Independent power producer that owns and operates the Susquehanna nuclear power plant along with other generation assets, notable for a landmark long-term power purchase agreement with Amazon Web Services to supply carbon-free nuclear power directly to an adjacent data center campus. | Operator of the largest U.S. nuclear fleet with retail and wholesale electricity businesses, pursuing long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscalers and data center operators for carbon-free electricity, including a landmark agreement to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center (formerly Three Mile Island Unit 1) to supply Microsoft. |
| Investor focus | Progress and expansion of hyperscaler power purchase agreements (notably with Amazon), Susquehanna plant utilization and reliability, and balance sheet management as a leaner, more focused independent power producer. | Nuclear fleet utilization, AI data center power agreements with multiple hyperscalers, clean energy premium pricing, and integration of the Calpine acquisition. |
- Landmark long-term nuclear power agreement with Amazon Web Services provides high-value, contracted revenue tied directly to AI data center demand
- Focused, less diversified asset base allows for a cleaner, more direct investment thesis around nuclear-powered AI electricity demand
- Nuclear energy increasingly valued as dispatchable, carbon-free baseload power for corporate buyers
- Largest nuclear power operator in the U.S. with a broad, diversified fleet across multiple states and hyperscaler relationships
- High-value long-term power agreements with multiple hyperscalers and data center operators, including the Crane Clean Energy Center restart for Microsoft
- Greater scale and diversification than smaller independent power producers focused on a single plant or region
- Smaller scale and less diversified generation fleet than larger nuclear utility peers like Constellation Energy
- Regulatory approval risk and scrutiny around direct co-located power arrangements between nuclear plants and data centers
- Concentration risk given the significance of a single large hyperscaler relationship to the investment thesis
- Nuclear plant maintenance, safety, and regulatory risk across a larger, more complex fleet
- Power purchase agreement pricing tied to clean energy policy and regulation
- Calpine acquisition integration execution and leverage
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