MSEX vs YORW Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MSEX (Middlesex Water) and YORW (York Water) are both small-cap regulated water utilities with long histories and stable dividends — Middlesex Water serves New Jersey and Delaware customers with Delaware beach market growth, while York Water is the oldest U.S. investor-owned utility in York County, Pennsylvania with a 200+ year continuous dividend payment streak. Both are niche utility plays for dividend-focused investors seeking pure-play regulated water exposure.
MSEX vs YORW is New Jersey and Delaware water utility with growth from beach community customer additions (Middlesex Water's multi-state presence, Delaware growth market from retiree migration, and New Jersey regulatory familiarity — managing PFAS compliance capital in a high-standard state) versus the oldest U.S. investor-owned water utility in a single Pennsylvania county (York Water's 200+ year uninterrupted dividend, York County Pennsylvania concentration, and wastewater system expansion — exceptional historical consistency in a limited-growth market) — diversified small water utility versus historic single-territory water utility.
MSEX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. YORW has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+2.14% vs -5.29%), though MSEX has the better forward P/E setup (19.37x vs 22.27x for YORW). YORW leads on both revenue growth (22.50%) and operating margin (42.26%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MSEX (+5.34%) than for YORW (-9.04%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Value Middlesex Water's Delaware service territory growth from beach community and retiree market expansion as providing above-average organic customer growth
- See MSEX's multi-state presence in New Jersey, Delaware, and Pennsylvania as providing more geographic diversification than a single-county utility
- Want regulated water utility exposure in a constructive New Jersey regulatory environment with a long dividend payment track record
- Value York Water's 200+ year uninterrupted dividend payment streak as the most compelling dividend consistency evidence available in U.S. equity markets
- Seek a simple, pure-play regulated water utility in a stable Pennsylvania market with no diversification complexity or acquisition integration risk
- Are conservative income investors for whom the extraordinary track record of York Water's long operational history provides confidence in earnings durability
| Metric | MSEX | YORW |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 33.8 | 32.2 |
| AI ranki | #1918 | #2062 |
| Latest closei | $53.91 | $30.90 |
| 1M returni | -3.66% | -5.29% |
| 3M returni | -4.80% | -0.57% |
| 6M returni | +7.88% | +3.99% |
| 1Y returni | -5.29% | +2.14% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MSEX | YORW |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.73K (-2.7%) started 2025-10-15 | $10.52K (+5.2%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $6.32K (-36.8%) started 2021-10-15 | $8.51K (-14.9%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $24.07K (+140.7%) started 2016-10-17 | $15.86K (+58.6%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MSEX | YORW |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.09B | $553.07M |
| Trailing P/Ei | 22.36 | 21.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.37 | 22.27 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.44 | 8.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $61.00 | $31.00 |
| Target upsidei | +5.34% | -9.04% |
| Metric | MSEX | YORW |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.30% | 22.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 31.60% | 37.00% |
| EPS growthi | +31.60% | +37.00% |
| FCF margini | -13.75% | -25.07% |
| Operating margini | 34.40% | 42.26% |
| Profit margini | 23.26% | 28.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.77% | 9.00% |
| Return on equityi | 9.77% | 9.00% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.48% | 2.67% |
| Payout ratioi | 54.83% | 56.10% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 3 yrs | 11 yrs |
| Betai | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| Debt/equityi | 83.98 | 64.57 |
| Current ratioi | 0.50 | 1.05 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.34 | 0.77 |
Over the past year, MSEX and YORW have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.69), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MSEX | YORW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -5.29% | +2.14% |
| CAGRi | -5.29% | +2.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.92% | 20.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.26 | -0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.04% | 13.93% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.66% | 9.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.60% | 5.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.59% | 7.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.14% | 4.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.43% | 6.93% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -43.30% | -24.76% |
| CAGRi | -10.73% | -5.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.30% | 22.16% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.37 | -0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.53 | -0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.51% | 35.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.59% | 30.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 40.13% | 20.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 42.60% | 22.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.14% | 5.67% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.43% | 8.77% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +94.36% | +26.05% |
| CAGRi | +6.88% | +2.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.13% | 29.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | 0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.51% | 39.62% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.59% | 34.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.76% | 18.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.83% | 21.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.14% | 11.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.83% | 22.67% |
| Category | MSEX | YORW |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Middlesex Water Company | York Water Company |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Regulated Water | Utilities - Regulated Water |
| Core business | Middlesex Water Company is a regulated water and wastewater utility providing services to approximately 68,000 customers in New Jersey (Middlesex County — the core service territory), Delaware (Tidewater Utilities subsidiary — a growth market), and Pennsylvania. Middlesex has expanded beyond its New Jersey base through acquisitions of Delaware and Pennsylvania water systems. The company provides water treatment (treating surface and groundwater to drinking water standards), distribution (delivering water through a network of pipes, pumping stations, and storage tanks), and wastewater collection and treatment in select service areas. Middlesex Water also contracts with municipalities to manage water systems under operations and maintenance agreements. | York Water Company is the oldest investor-owned water utility in the United States, having served customers in York County, Pennsylvania continuously since 1816 — over 200 years. York Water provides water (drinking water distribution) and wastewater services to approximately 75,000 customers in York County, Adams County, and other south-central Pennsylvania areas. York Water is a single-basin utility with a geographically concentrated service territory in the York, PA area. Despite its small size (among the smallest publicly traded utilities), York Water has an exceptional track record of earnings and dividend consistency — paying dividends every year since 1816. York Water has expanded its service territory through wastewater system acquisitions from Pennsylvania municipalities. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Middlesex Water's rate base growth, earnings per share growth, New Jersey rate case outcomes, Delaware growth (new customers from residential development), and dividend growth. | Investors track York Water's rate base growth (the only earnings growth driver for a concentrated single-territory utility), Pennsylvania PUC rate case outcomes, wastewater system acquisition activity, and the dividend (which York Water has paid since 1816). |
- Delaware service territory provides growth above New Jersey mature market — Delaware (particularly Sussex County, home of the Delaware beaches and retirement communities) is a faster-growing market than Middlesex's New Jersey core; beach community development and retiree migration drive new water connections
- New Jersey utility regulatory environment is relatively constructive — New Jersey BPU (Board of Public Utilities) has been supportive of water utility capital investment recovery; Middlesex's long history with the NJ BPU provides regulatory familiarity
- Long-established utility with stable dividend history — Middlesex Water has paid dividends for over 100 consecutive years; the long track record demonstrates earnings durability
- Oldest continuously operating investor-owned U.S. water utility with 200+ years of uninterrupted dividend payments — the 200+ year track record is unique in U.S. corporate history; the streak provides extraordinary dividend reliability evidence
- Pennsylvania PUC regulatory environment supports capital investment recovery — Pennsylvania has a relatively constructive regulatory environment for water utilities (Distribution System Improvement Charge mechanism allows interim rate recovery for distribution system upgrades between rate cases)
- Wastewater system acquisitions from York County municipalities provide organic rate base growth — York Water has been acquiring municipal wastewater systems in its service territory; wastewater additions complement the existing water business and add regulated earnings
- New Jersey is a high-cost, mature service territory with limited customer growth — New Jersey is one of the densest U.S. states; most possible water customers already have water service; growth requires acquisition rather than organic customer additions
- Smaller scale than AWK or Essential Utilities limits capital market advantages — Middlesex Water's small size means higher cost of capital than large-cap peers and less institutional investor coverage
- Environmental compliance (PFAS, lead service lines) creates capital requirements proportionally large for a small utility — New Jersey has stringent environmental standards (NJ DEP often anticipates or exceeds federal requirements); PFAS compliance in New Jersey's water supply is a significant capital requirement for Middlesex
- Extremely concentrated single-county service territory limits geographic diversification — any economic, regulatory, or infrastructure shock in York County directly impacts York Water; there is no geographic hedge
- Very small size ($250M-350M market cap) limits analyst coverage, liquidity, and institutional investor accessibility — York Water is one of the smallest publicly traded utilities; limited trading volume and analyst coverage may limit ownership to individual investors and small institutions
- Single-territory growth constrained to York County economic development — York Water's organic growth depends on residential and commercial development in York County, Pennsylvania; this is a modest, stable market without high-growth characteristics
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