ATD vs MUSA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ATD (Alimentation Couche-Tard) is the global Circle K convenience store giant with 16,000 sites across North America, Europe, and Asia, while MUSA (Murphy USA) is a focused U.S. fuel retailer with approximately 1,700 Walmart-adjacent locations and an aggressive buyback strategy. Couche-Tard is much larger with international scale; Murphy USA is a more focused U.S. fuel retail value play.
ATD vs MUSA is global convenience store scale versus focused U.S. fuel-and-convenience value model — Couche-Tard's acquisition-driven international growth against Murphy USA's Walmart-proximity strategy and buyback-driven return.
ATD and MUSA are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want global convenience store exposure through the Circle K brand with operations across North America, Europe, and growing Asia presence
- Value Couche-Tard's proven M&A integration playbook as a long-term compounder through disciplined international convenience retail acquisitions
- Are comfortable with Canadian stock exposure (ATD primarily trades on TSX, may be accessed as OTC in U.S. markets)
- Want a U.S.-only fuel retail and convenience store operator with a differentiated Walmart co-location strategy driving traffic advantages
- Value Murphy USA's aggressive buyback program and disciplined capital return as the primary shareholder value creation mechanism
- Prefer a simpler, focused U.S. fuel retail model versus the complexity of a global multi-country convenience store operator
| Metric | ATD | MUSA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | N/A | 61.0 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #128 |
| Latest closei | N/A | $509.34 |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ATD | MUSA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | N/A | $13.89K (+38.9%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | N/A | $29.88K (+198.8%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | N/A | $80.92K (+709.2%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ATD | MUSA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | N/A | $9.57B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 15.93 |
| Forward P/Ei | N/A | 16.97 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | N/A | 0.65 |
| Analyst targeti | N/A | $622.70 |
| Target upsidei | N/A | +19.64% |
| Metric | ATD | MUSA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | N/A | 40.80% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 53.10% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +53.10% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +2.03% |
| Operating margini | N/A | 4.91% |
| Profit margini | N/A | 3.23% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 86.39% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 86.39% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.48% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 7.17% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | N/A | 0.28 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 352.93 |
| Current ratioi | N/A | 0.93 |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | 0.51 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ATD | MUSA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | N/A | +38.88% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +38.97% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 39.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.92 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 1.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 19.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 18.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 7.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 9.65% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 10.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 16.44% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | N/A | +198.75% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +24.48% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 31.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 1.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 35.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 18.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 10.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 14.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 12.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 16.44% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | N/A | +709.25% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +23.26% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 31.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 1.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 35.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 18.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 9.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 12.44% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 12.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 17.08% |
| Category | ATD | MUSA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. | Murphy USA Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Staples - Convenience Stores & Fuel | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | Specialty Retail |
| Core business | Alimentation Couche-Tard is a Canadian global convenience store operator with approximately 16,000 sites across North America (Circle K brand), Europe, and Asia — one of the largest convenience and fuel retailers in the world, with a history of successful international acquisitions. | Murphy USA operates approximately 1,700 Murphy USA and Murphy Express fuel and convenience retail locations across 27 states, with many sites located adjacent to Walmart stores — a strategic positioning that drives traffic from Walmart shoppers seeking fuel and convenience items. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Couche-Tard's same-store sales (fuel and merchandise), merchandise gross margin improvement, fuel volume and retail margin, and M&A pipeline as the company consistently acquires and integrates convenience chains globally under the Circle K banner. | Investors track Murphy USA's fuel volume, retail fuel margin per gallon, merchandise revenue and margins, new store openings, and capital return through buybacks — Murphy USA is known for an aggressive buyback-heavy capital return strategy. |
- World's second-largest convenience store operator with approximately 16,000 sites across North America and Europe, providing scale in fuel purchasing, private label, and operating best practices
- Proven acquisition integration playbook — Couche-Tard has consistently acquired convenience chains and improved their margins through operational best practices, private label, and procurement scale
- Circle K global brand builds customer recognition and loyalty across a dispersed retail network that spans multiple countries and fuel formats
- Walmart proximity strategy provides a structural traffic advantage — Walmart shoppers already on site seeking fuel create a captive customer base without need for destination-only traffic generation
- Disciplined capital allocation with buybacks as the primary shareholder return mechanism — Murphy USA has repurchased a significant fraction of its share count over time
- Low-cost operating model with smaller store formats and minimal food service complexity keeps overhead efficient relative to larger convenience formats
- EV adoption will gradually reduce fuel volume at Couche-Tard's primarily gasoline-dependent fuel retail network, requiring investment in EV charging infrastructure
- ATD primarily trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the ticker ATD — U.S. investors may face currency and OTC trading considerations versus NYSE-listed peers
- Fuel retail margins are volatile and difficult to predict — spread between wholesale and retail gasoline prices can compress rapidly with competitive or cost pressures
- EV adoption is an existential long-term risk to fuel-only convenience stores — Murphy USA's thin-format sites may be harder to convert to EV charging versus larger convenience formats
- Walmart relationship concentration means Murphy USA's traffic depends partly on continued Walmart store performance and co-location agreements
- Murphy USA's smaller store format limits food service and convenience merchandise revenue per customer compared to larger competitors like Wawa or Sheetz
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