EQT vs SWN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
EQT (EQT Corporation) and SWN (Southwestern Energy) are both major Appalachian natural gas producers with similar exposure to Henry Hub natural gas price cycles — EQT is the largest U.S. gas producer with pure Appalachian focus, industry-leading cost structure, and a strong balance sheet, while SWN has added Haynesville Shale to its Appalachian operations and is involved in a pending merger with Chesapeake Energy to create 'Expand Energy.'
EQT vs SWN is the largest U.S. natural gas producer with scale cost advantages and pure Appalachian focus (EQT Corporation's 6+ Bcf/d production, lowest-cost Marcellus operations, and strong balance sheet — seeking LNG export demand growth as the long-term natural gas price catalyst) versus mid-size Appalachian gas producer with Haynesville diversification and merger catalyst (Southwestern Energy's Appalachian/Haynesville dual basin, Gulf Coast LNG proximity from Haynesville, and pending Expand Energy merger with Chesapeake) — established scale and cost leadership versus geographic diversification and merger transformation.
EQT and SWN are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the largest, most liquid natural gas E&P with industry-leading cost structure and production scale for pure Appalachian gas price exposure
- Value EQT's shareholder return focus (dividends and buybacks) funded by disciplined free cash flow generation at moderate natural gas prices
- Believe LNG export capacity growth over the next 5-10 years will structurally improve Henry Hub natural gas prices and EQT's earnings power
- See the Expand Energy merger with Chesapeake as creating a combined national gas platform with meaningful synergies that enhance value relative to standalone SWN
- Value SWN's Haynesville Shale exposure as providing Gulf Coast LNG proximity that could receive pricing premiums as export capacity expands
- Believe the merger transaction provides a near-term catalyst that re-rates SWN's value above what pure commodity price exposure would imply
| Metric | EQT | SWN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.5 | N/A |
| AI ranki | #1051 | N/A |
| Latest closei | $52.45 | N/A |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | EQT | SWN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.85K (-1.5%) started 2025-10-16 | N/A |
| 5Y ago | $29.31K (+193.1%) started 2021-10-18 | N/A |
| 10Y ago | $17.07K (+70.7%) started 2016-10-17 | N/A |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | EQT | SWN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $33.05B | N/A |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.26 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.01 | N/A |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.20 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.54 | N/A |
| Analyst targeti | $67.19 | N/A |
| Target upsidei | +27.19% | N/A |
| Metric | EQT | SWN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -3.90% | N/A |
| Earnings growthi | -74.00% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -74.00% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +26.48% | N/A |
| Operating margini | 23.37% | N/A |
| Profit margini | 29.18% | N/A |
| ROIC proxyi | 11.08% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 11.08% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.25% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 15.14% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| Debt/equityi | 19.59 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.67 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 0.54 | N/A |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | EQT | SWN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -1.48% | N/A |
| CAGRi | -1.49% | N/A | |
| Volatilityi | 30.21% | N/A | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.05 | N/A | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.07 | N/A | |
| Max drawdowni | 28.51% | N/A | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.79% | N/A | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.76% | N/A | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.31% | N/A | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.16% | N/A | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.71% | N/A | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +176.68% | N/A |
| CAGRi | +22.60% | N/A | |
| Volatilityi | 40.96% | N/A | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | N/A | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.86 | N/A | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.56% | N/A | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.79% | N/A | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.48% | N/A | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.64% | N/A | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.48% | N/A | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.06% | N/A | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +57.77% | N/A |
| CAGRi | +4.67% | N/A | |
| Volatilityi | 48.93% | N/A | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | N/A | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.36 | N/A | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.56% | N/A | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.79% | N/A | |
| Avg drawdowni | 32.72% | N/A | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.41% | N/A | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.66% | N/A | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.26% | N/A |
| Category | EQT | SWN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | EQT Corporation | Southwestern Energy Company |
| Sector | Energy | Energy - Natural Gas E&P |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | N/A |
| Core business | EQT Corporation is the largest U.S. natural gas producer by volume, operating exclusively in the Appalachian Basin (Marcellus and Utica Shales in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio). EQT produces approximately 6+ Bcf/d of natural gas equivalent — more than any other single U.S. natural gas company. EQT's strategy is focused on capital efficiency (producing the most gas per dollar of capital invested), cost reduction (lowest cost per Mcf among major Appalachian producers), and shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks funded by free cash flow at moderate natural gas prices). EQT's scale provides procurement advantages, infrastructure ownership benefits, and pipeline negotiating leverage that smaller Appalachian operators cannot match. | Southwestern Energy is a major U.S. natural gas producer with operations in the Appalachian Basin (Marcellus and Utica Shales in Pennsylvania and West Virginia) and the Haynesville Shale (in Arkansas — the Fayetteville Shale was Southwestern's historical basin, now largely divested). SWN produces approximately 4+ Bcf/d of natural gas equivalent. Note: Chesapeake Energy announced a merger with SWN in 2023 to create 'Expand Energy,' which would combine the two companies' Appalachian and Haynesville operations into one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The merger transaction may have closed or be pending by publication time. |
| Investor focus | Investors track EQT's production volumes, all-in cost per Mcf (a key competitive metric vs. peers), capital efficiency (production added per dollar of capex), free cash flow per share, and natural gas price hedging strategy. | Investors track SWN's production volumes, Appalachian vs. Haynesville production mix, cost per Mcf, balance sheet leverage, and merger process with Chesapeake (Expand Energy transaction). |
- Largest U.S. natural gas producer scale creates cost and infrastructure advantages — EQT's volume provides negotiating leverage with pipeline operators, procurement scale for drilling services, and the ability to build and own midstream infrastructure at lower effective cost than small producers
- Among the lowest-cost Marcellus operators with a deep low-break-even drilling inventory — EQT targets sub-$2.50/MMBtu break-even production costs; the large inventory of economic wells ensures production can grow or hold flat at relatively low natural gas prices
- Balance sheet strengthening and shareholder return focus post-2020 — EQT has consistently reduced debt and returned capital through dividends and buybacks; the clean balance sheet provides flexibility through natural gas price cycles
- Haynesville Shale exposure provides proximity to Gulf Coast LNG export markets — SWN's Haynesville production in Arkansas/Louisiana is geographically closer to Gulf Coast LNG terminals; Haynesville gas can access LNG export pricing with lower transportation costs than Marcellus gas
- Merger with Chesapeake creates a scaled national gas platform with synergies — the combined Expand Energy entity would be among the two largest U.S. gas producers with significant Appalachian and Haynesville scale; synergies from combined operations and procurement could be substantial
- Balance sheet improvement has been a focus — SWN has used FCF during higher gas price periods to reduce leverage; the merger with Chesapeake (which has a clean post-bankruptcy balance sheet) should further strengthen the combined entity's financial position
- EQT's earnings and FCF are highly sensitive to Henry Hub natural gas prices — with 6 Bcf/d production, a $0.50/MMBtu change in realized price moves annual revenue by approximately $1B; low gas prices severely compress earnings
- Appalachian takeaway pipeline capacity constraints can widen basis differentials — when Marcellus production exceeds pipeline takeaway capacity (common in spring when heating demand drops), Pennsylvania gas prices can fall 10-30% below Henry Hub
- LNG export capacity growth is the primary catalyst for structural Henry Hub price improvement — EQT's long-term earnings depend significantly on LNG export demand growth, which requires new export terminal capacity that takes years to build
- Merger uncertainty creates stock-specific risk — merger timing, regulatory review, and integration execution add uncertainty beyond pure commodity exposure; if the merger is delayed or does not close, SWN's standalone value is assessed on its own merits
- SWN carries more leverage than EQT historically — SWN's debt load has been higher than EQT's, requiring more cash flow to service and reducing flexibility in gas price downturns
- Haynesville gas production economics can be higher-cost than some Marcellus acreage — Haynesville wells are generally deeper and more capital-intensive than the best Marcellus locations; SWN's Haynesville economics must be compared to peer Haynesville operators (Comstock, Aethon)
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