COP vs EOG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ConocoPhillips and EOG Resources are both large US independent exploration and production companies, but ConocoPhillips maintains a more geographically diversified portfolio spanning multiple basins and international assets, while EOG Resources concentrates on premium US shale acreage with a strong culture of capital discipline.
ConocoPhillips offers exposure to a diversified, globally spread oil and gas production base with an established capital return framework, while EOG Resources offers a more concentrated bet on premium US shale acreage backed by disciplined capital allocation. Consider whether you prefer ConocoPhillips' diversification or EOG's capital discipline and acreage quality.
EOG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. COP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+33.12% vs +20.27%), though EOG has the better forward P/E setup (9.95x vs 13.68x for COP). EOG leads on both revenue growth (58.70%) and operating margin (40.72%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +11.49% for COP and +11.59% for EOG.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a geographically diversified oil and gas production portfolio
- Value an established capital return framework combining base and variable dividends with buybacks
- Believe diversification across US and international assets reduces single-basin concentration risk
- Are comfortable with integration risk from periodic large-scale acquisitions
- Want concentrated exposure to premium US shale acreage with low break-even costs
- Value a long-standing culture of capital discipline and rigorous well economics
- Believe consistent dividend growth reflects durable shareholder-focused capital allocation
- Are comfortable with less geographic diversification in exchange for higher-quality acreage
| Metric | COP | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 56.3 | 45.1 |
| AI ranki | #213 | #713 |
| Latest closei | $127.30 | $140.35 |
| 1M returni | -2.53% | -3.10% |
| 6M returni | -4.86% | -6.16% |
| 1Y returni | +33.12% | +20.27% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COP | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.15K (+31.5%) started 2025-09-25 | $11.97K (+19.7%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $25.35K (+153.5%) started 2021-09-27 | $25.77K (+157.7%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $56.71K (+467.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $28.76K (+187.6%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COP | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $156.59B | $75.19B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.24 | 11.16 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.68 | 9.95 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.67 | 2.94 |
| Analyst targeti | $145.33 | $159.96 |
| Target upsidei | +11.49% | +11.59% |
| Metric | COP | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 35.50% | 58.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 107.00% | 109.40% |
| EPS growthi | +107.00% | +109.40% |
| FCF margini | +11.93% | +16.76% |
| Operating margini | 31.51% | 40.72% |
| Profit margini | 14.40% | 25.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.18% | 22.51% |
| Return on equityi | 14.18% | 22.51% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.58% | 2.85% |
| Payout ratioi | 43.65% | 31.40% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| Debt/equityi | 35.64 | 25.89 |
| Current ratioi | 1.54 | 1.85 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.18 | 1.58 |
Over the past year, COP and EOG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.85), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COP | EOG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +31.49% | +19.65% |
| CAGRi | +31.55% | +19.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.98% | 28.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.90 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.29 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.86% | 14.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.86% | 8.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.27% | 6.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.29% | 7.66% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.15% | 6.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.29% | 9.38% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +119.08% | +108.23% |
| CAGRi | +17.00% | +15.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.59% | 32.38% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.72 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.30% | 33.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.86% | 8.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.91% | 11.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.69% | 13.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.23% | 10.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.57% | 21.39% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +316.67% | +108.13% |
| CAGRi | +15.34% | +7.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.63% | 39.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.66% | 77.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.86% | 8.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.78% | 21.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.58% | 28.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.84% | 32.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.88% | 47.47% |
| Category | COP | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ConocoPhillips | EOG Resources, Inc. |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | A global independent exploration and production company with a diversified portfolio of oil and gas assets spanning the Permian Basin, Alaska, and international operations, focused on low cost-of-supply drilling inventory. | A US-focused independent exploration and production company known for a disciplined, returns-driven drilling strategy across premium acreage positions including the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and other domestic shale plays. |
| Investor focus | Production growth from its Permian Basin and diversified asset base, capital return program consistency, and break-even oil price relative to peers. | Premium drilling inventory depth, capital discipline and return-on-capital trends, and dividend growth track record supported by low-breakeven wells. |
- Geographically diversified asset base spanning multiple US basins and international operations reduces single-region concentration risk
- Low cost-of-supply drilling inventory supports resilient free cash flow generation across a range of oil price environments
- Established capital return framework combining base dividends with variable and share buyback components rewards shareholders through cycles
- Long-standing culture of capital discipline and rigorous well economics screening supports strong returns on invested capital
- Concentrated premium acreage positions in top-tier US shale basins support low break-even costs relative to peers
- Track record of consistent dividend growth reflects a shareholder-focused capital allocation philosophy
- Results remain fundamentally exposed to volatile global oil and gas price movements despite diversification efforts
- Large-scale acquisitions integration can introduce near-term execution risk to production and cost targets
- International operations carry geopolitical and regulatory risk beyond typical US onshore exposure
- Concentration in US onshore shale plays provides less geographic diversification than larger integrated or diversified E&P peers
- Production growth is inherently tied to volatile commodity price cycles that can affect drilling activity levels
- Premium acreage inventory, while extensive, is a finite resource requiring ongoing exploration or acquisition to sustain long-term growth
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