AMCR vs BALL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AMCR offers diversified, defensive flexible-packaging exposure across food, beverage, and healthcare with a steady dividend, while BALL is a more cyclical, higher-growth pure-play on aluminum can demand and sustainability-driven packaging shifts. BALL's growth has recently been challenged by industry overcapacity.
AMCR vs BALL contrasts a diversified, defensive flexible-packaging conglomerate against a more cyclical pure-play on aluminum beverage cans riding the sustainable-packaging trend.
AMCR holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AMCR leads on both 1-year return (+520.51%) and forward P/E quality (9.71x vs 13.24x for BALL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. AMCR leads on both revenue growth (25.90%) and operating margin (9.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +18.57% for AMCR and +21.15% for BALL.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified, defensive packaging exposure across food and healthcare
- Value a consistent and well-covered dividend
- Prefer lower cyclicality over high growth
- Want exposure to the secular shift toward sustainable aluminum packaging
- Believe seltzer and energy drink volume growth will continue
- Can tolerate near-term industry overcapacity pressures
| Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 55.0 | 41.3 |
| AI ranki | #272 | #1107 |
| Latest closei | $49.02 | $68.07 |
| 1M returni | +17.10% | +20.76% |
| 3M returni | +6.52% | +4.48% |
| 6M returni | +32.81% | +11.72% |
| 1Y returni | +520.51% | +44.83% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $62.37K (+523.7%) started 2025-11-03 | $14.45K (+44.5%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $55.77K (+457.7%) started 2021-11-03 | $7.92K (-20.8%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $98.29K (+882.9%) started 2016-11-03 | $20.81K (+108.1%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $19.57B | $15.86B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.78 | 17.16 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.71 | 13.24 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.43 | 1.60 |
| Analyst targeti | $50.18 | $72.57 |
| Target upsidei | +18.57% | +21.15% |
| Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.90% | 19.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -11.70% | 9.20% |
| EPS growthi | -11.70% | +9.20% |
| FCF margini | +6.40% | +2.65% |
| Operating margini | 9.69% | 9.23% |
| Profit margini | 4.71% | 6.61% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.40% | 17.15% |
| Return on equityi | 9.40% | 17.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.14% | 1.34% |
| Payout ratioi | 108.72% | 22.79% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.59 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | 128.29 | 131.50 |
| Current ratioi | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.64 | 0.60 |
Over the past year, AMCR and BALL have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.04), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +523.66% | +44.49% |
| CAGRi | +527.32% | +44.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 574.81% | 26.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.31 | 1.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 9.09 | 2.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.67% | 22.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.08% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.99% | 7.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.26% | 9.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 79.67% | 6.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.15% | 8.25% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +368.54% | -24.33% |
| CAGRi | +36.20% | -5.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 257.96% | 30.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | -0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.55 | -0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.67% | 54.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.08% | 26.81% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.74% | 35.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.94% | 37.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 79.67% | 18.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.78% | 23.55% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +516.87% | +89.91% |
| CAGRi | +19.96% | +6.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 183.31% | 28.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.33 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.67% | 55.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.08% | 27.17% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.31% | 21.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.04% | 27.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 79.67% | 18.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.00% | 23.55% |
| Category | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Amcor plc | Ball Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Packaging & Containers | Packaging & Containers |
| Core business | Amcor is a global leader in flexible and rigid packaging, producing plastic films, bottles, and containers for food, beverage, healthcare, and consumer products customers worldwide. | Ball Corporation is the world's largest manufacturer of aluminum beverage cans, supplying beer, soft drink, and seltzer producers globally, with a strong sustainability positioning around aluminum's recyclability. |
| Investor focus | Investors track volume growth in defensive end markets like food and healthcare, sustainability-driven product innovation, and Amcor's steady dividend. | Investors track global can volume growth, especially in seltzers and energy drinks, aluminum cost pass-through dynamics, and capital spending on new can plants. |
- Diversified global footprint across defensive food, beverage, and healthcare packaging
- Strong free cash flow supporting a consistent dividend
- Investing in recyclable and sustainable packaging innovation
- Leading global market position in highly recyclable aluminum can packaging
- Benefits from consumer and brand shift toward sustainable packaging
- Strong long-term volume growth from seltzer and energy drink categories
- Slower organic growth profile typical of mature packaging markets
- Exposure to resin and raw material cost volatility
- Currency translation risk from global operations
- Overbuilt can capacity in recent years has pressured industry pricing and margins
- Aluminum cost volatility and pass-through contract structures affect profitability
- High capital intensity of new can-plant construction
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