AMCR vs BALL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AMCR offers diversified, defensive flexible-packaging exposure across food, beverage, and healthcare with a steady dividend, while BALL is a more cyclical, higher-growth pure-play on aluminum can demand and sustainability-driven packaging shifts. BALL's growth has recently been challenged by industry overcapacity.
AMCR vs BALL contrasts a diversified, defensive flexible-packaging conglomerate against a more cyclical pure-play on aluminum beverage cans riding the sustainable-packaging trend.
AMCR holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AMCR leads on both 1-year return (+405.13%) and forward P/E quality (9.71x vs 13.24x for BALL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. AMCR leads on both revenue growth (25.90%) and operating margin (9.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +18.57% for AMCR and +21.15% for BALL.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified, defensive packaging exposure across food and healthcare
- Value a consistent and well-covered dividend
- Prefer lower cyclicality over high growth
- Want exposure to the secular shift toward sustainable aluminum packaging
- Believe seltzer and energy drink volume growth will continue
- Can tolerate near-term industry overcapacity pressures
| Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.8 | 39.7 |
| AI ranki | #285 | #1209 |
| Latest closei | $42.38 | $60.75 |
| 1M returni | -7.59% | -1.49% |
| 6M returni | +9.54% | +2.98% |
| 1Y returni | +405.13% | +22.16% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $51.18K (+411.8%) started 2025-09-17 | $12.39K (+23.9%) started 2025-09-17 |
| 5Y ago | $50.34K (+403.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $7.18K (-28.2%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $84.98K (+749.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $18.54K (+85.4%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $19.57B | $15.86B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.78 | 17.16 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.71 | 13.24 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.43 | 1.60 |
| Analyst targeti | $50.18 | $72.57 |
| Target upsidei | +18.57% | +21.15% |
| Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.90% | 19.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -11.70% | 9.20% |
| EPS growthi | -11.70% | +9.20% |
| FCF margini | +6.40% | +2.65% |
| Operating margini | 9.69% | 9.23% |
| Profit margini | 4.71% | 6.61% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.40% | 17.15% |
| Return on equityi | 9.40% | 17.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.14% | 1.34% |
| Payout ratioi | 108.72% | 22.92% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.59 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | 128.29 | 131.50 |
| Current ratioi | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.64 | 0.60 |
Over the past year, AMCR and BALL have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.04), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +411.84% | +23.88% |
| CAGRi | +413.03% | +23.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 572.62% | 25.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.27 | 0.79 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 8.80 | 1.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.67% | 22.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.21% | 10.35% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.56% | 6.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.36% | 8.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 79.67% | 6.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.15% | 8.25% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +322.95% | -31.47% |
| CAGRi | +33.49% | -7.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 257.85% | 30.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.54 | -0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.50 | -0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.67% | 54.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.21% | 34.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.39% | 34.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.79% | 37.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 79.67% | 18.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.78% | 23.55% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +433.31% | +69.21% |
| CAGRi | +18.23% | +5.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 183.22% | 28.16% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.28 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.67% | 55.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.21% | 35.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.13% | 21.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.95% | 27.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 79.67% | 18.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.00% | 23.55% |
| Category | AMCR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Amcor plc | Ball Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Packaging & Containers | Packaging & Containers |
| Core business | Amcor is a global leader in flexible and rigid packaging, producing plastic films, bottles, and containers for food, beverage, healthcare, and consumer products customers worldwide. | Ball Corporation is the world's largest manufacturer of aluminum beverage cans, supplying beer, soft drink, and seltzer producers globally, with a strong sustainability positioning around aluminum's recyclability. |
| Investor focus | Investors track volume growth in defensive end markets like food and healthcare, sustainability-driven product innovation, and Amcor's steady dividend. | Investors track global can volume growth, especially in seltzers and energy drinks, aluminum cost pass-through dynamics, and capital spending on new can plants. |
- Diversified global footprint across defensive food, beverage, and healthcare packaging
- Strong free cash flow supporting a consistent dividend
- Investing in recyclable and sustainable packaging innovation
- Leading global market position in highly recyclable aluminum can packaging
- Benefits from consumer and brand shift toward sustainable packaging
- Strong long-term volume growth from seltzer and energy drink categories
- Slower organic growth profile typical of mature packaging markets
- Exposure to resin and raw material cost volatility
- Currency translation risk from global operations
- Overbuilt can capacity in recent years has pressured industry pricing and margins
- Aluminum cost volatility and pass-through contract structures affect profitability
- High capital intensity of new can-plant construction
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