CF vs MOS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CF offers a natural-gas-advantaged, nitrogen-focused fertilizer business with growing clean ammonia optionality, while MOS provides diversified phosphate and potash exposure with significant Brazilian market leverage. Both are cyclical commodity plays tied to global grain economics.
CF vs MOS contrasts a nitrogen-pure, natural-gas-advantaged fertilizer producer against a diversified phosphate-and-potash miner with greater emerging-market exposure.
CF holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CF leads on both 1-year return (+51.84%) and forward P/E quality (12.02x vs 14.70x for MOS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CF leads on both revenue growth (17.60%) and operating margin (49.33%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MOS (+12.15%) than for CF (-0.01%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want nitrogen-fertilizer-pure exposure with a domestic gas cost advantage
- See upside in clean/blue ammonia as an energy-transition theme
- Believe global grain demand will support nitrogen pricing
- Want diversified phosphate and potash exposure
- See structural growth in Brazilian and emerging-market agriculture
- Are comfortable with mining-related environmental and regulatory risk
| Metric | CF | MOS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.2 | 36.6 |
| AI ranki | #306 | #1574 |
| Latest closei | $127.70 | $24.48 |
| 1M returni | +7.29% | +10.12% |
| 6M returni | +1.70% | -6.56% |
| 1Y returni | +51.84% | -28.46% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CF | MOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.18K (+51.8%) started 2025-09-18 | $7.15K (-28.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $31.15K (+211.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $8.91K (-10.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $89.41K (+794.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $12.96K (+29.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CF | MOS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $19.04B | $7.5B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 9.33 | 158.00 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.02 | 14.70 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.02 | 1.10 |
| Analyst targeti | $125.77 | $26.47 |
| Target upsidei | -0.01% | +12.15% |
| Metric | CF | MOS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 17.60% | -6.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 99.60% | 239.50% |
| EPS growthi | +99.60% | +239.50% |
| FCF margini | +16.50% | -6.09% |
| Operating margini | 49.33% | -0.12% |
| Profit margini | 27.12% | -5.21% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.87% | -5.07% |
| Return on equityi | 29.87% | -5.07% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.91% | 3.73% |
| Payout ratioi | 14.84% | 628.57% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.40 | 0.82 |
| Debt/equityi | 40.50 | 52.25 |
| Current ratioi | 4.86 | 1.34 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.14 | 0.35 |
Over the past year, CF and MOS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.42), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CF | MOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +51.84% | -28.46% |
| CAGRi | +51.89% | -28.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.23% | 45.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.08 | -0.62 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.66 | -0.86 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.75% | 44.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.31% | 31.87% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.57% | 28.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.51% | 30.41% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.65% | 9.96% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.08% | 19.52% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +187.34% | -17.79% |
| CAGRi | +23.53% | -3.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.36% | 42.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.63 | 0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.91 | 0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.36% | 72.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.31% | 66.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.55% | 48.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.38% | 51.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.65% | 13.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.16% | 19.52% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +584.41% | +11.48% |
| CAGRi | +21.22% | +1.09% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.86% | 44.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.74% | 80.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.31% | 66.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.45% | 38.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.30% | 43.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.39% | 27.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.72% | 40.15% |
| Category | CF | MOS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | The Mosaic Company |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Agricultural Inputs | Agricultural Inputs |
| Core business | CF Industries is the largest North American producer of nitrogen fertilizers, primarily ammonia and urea, used to boost crop yields. It also has a growing clean ammonia business for industrial and energy use. | Mosaic is a leading producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers, with mining and production operations in the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, serving global agricultural markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors track natural gas costs (the key input for nitrogen production), global nitrogen pricing, and CF's emerging blue/green ammonia growth strategy. | Investors track phosphate and potash pricing, Brazilian and Indian import demand, and Mosaic's mining cost structure and capital spending. |
- Low-cost North American natural gas feedstock advantage
- Large-scale, efficient ammonia and urea production network
- Emerging clean ammonia business positions it for energy-transition demand
- Vertically integrated phosphate mining and production assets
- Significant exposure to fast-growing Brazilian agricultural market
- Diversified across both phosphate and potash nutrient categories
- Natural gas price volatility directly affects production costs
- Nitrogen fertilizer prices are cyclical and tied to global grain markets
- Clean ammonia projects require significant capital investment with uncertain returns
- Potash and phosphate prices are highly cyclical and globally traded
- Mining operations carry environmental and regulatory liabilities
- Currency risk from significant Brazilian operations
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