KGC vs NEM: Kinross Gold vs Newmont Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Kinross is a mid-tier gold producer with a high-quality mine portfolio in the Americas and West Africa, focused on AISC improvement and Great Bear development, while Newmont is the world's largest gold producer following the Newcrest acquisition, offering scale, Tier 1 mine diversification, and a meaningful dividend yield. Both are pure-play gold producers whose stock prices correlate closely with gold prices.
KGC vs NEM is mid-tier gold leverage vs the world's largest diversified gold compounder — Kinross offers higher leverage to gold price upside given its smaller size; Newmont offers more stability, dividend income, and Tier 1 mine diversification at lower operational risk.
KGC holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NEM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+23.73% vs -10.99%), though KGC has the better forward P/E setup (9.78x vs 12.69x for NEM). KGC leads on both revenue growth (29.50%) and operating margin (52.48%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KGC (+20.07%) than for NEM (+3.82%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want mid-tier gold producer leverage with higher sensitivity to gold price moves than large-cap peers
- value Kinross's streamlined, lower-geopolitical-risk portfolio in the Americas and Mauritania
- believe Great Bear's high-grade Ontario deposit creates long-term production growth optionality
- prefer a smaller, more agile gold company over a large-cap integration story like Newmont
- want the world's largest, most diversified gold producer with Tier 1 mine exposure globally
- value Newmont's dividend yield as income alongside gold price exposure
- believe Newcrest integration delivers cost and production improvements over time
- prefer large-cap gold stability and liquidity over mid-tier leverage
| Metric | KGC | NEM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 61.4 | 50.1 |
| AI ranki | #117 | #264 |
| Latest closei | $23.85 | $115.79 |
| 1M returni | -14.94% | -6.76% |
| 3M returni | +4.20% | +27.48% |
| 6M returni | -29.39% | +2.10% |
| 1Y returni | -10.99% | +23.73% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KGC | NEM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.94K (-10.6%) started 2025-10-15 | $11.78K (+17.8%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $46.44K (+364.4%) started 2021-10-15 | $26.27K (+162.7%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $81.07K (+710.7%) started 2016-10-17 | $53.7K (+437.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KGC | NEM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $35.5B | $134.85B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.38 | 16.14 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.78 | 12.69 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.91 | 5.11 |
| Analyst targeti | $35.93 | $132.87 |
| Target upsidei | +20.07% | +3.82% |
| Metric | KGC | NEM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 29.50% | 15.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 64.80% | 11.40% |
| EPS growthi | +64.80% | +11.40% |
| FCF margini | +35.36% | +34.21% |
| Operating margini | 52.48% | 51.57% |
| Profit margini | 37.52% | 33.36% |
| ROIC proxyi | 36.99% | 25.91% |
| Return on equityi | 36.99% | 25.91% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.54% | 0.79% |
| Payout ratioi | 5.51% | 12.86% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.41 | 0.50 |
| Debt/equityi | 7.73 | 15.81 |
| Current ratioi | 2.89 | 2.55 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.90 | 1.95 |
Over the past year, KGC and NEM have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.88), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KGC | NEM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.99% | +17.83% |
| CAGRi | -10.99% | +17.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.70% | 49.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.01 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.35% | 32.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.10% | 14.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.81% | 13.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.55% | 15.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.77% | 11.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.61% | 17.14% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +325.01% | +131.63% |
| CAGRi | +33.57% | +18.31% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.53% | 39.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.11 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.22% | 62.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.10% | 14.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.77% | 30.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.19% | 36.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.77% | 14.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.80% | 18.70% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +624.77% | +315.72% |
| CAGRi | +21.92% | +15.32% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.84% | 35.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 67.89% | 62.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.10% | 14.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.29% | 21.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.02% | 27.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.38% | 14.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 37.70% | 24.55% |
| Category | KGC | NEM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Kinross Gold Corporation | Newmont Corporation |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Gold | Gold |
| Core business | Canadian mid-tier gold miner with operations in the Americas (US, Brazil, Chile), West Africa (Mauritania, Ghana), and no Russian exposure following asset sales. Kinross produces approximately 2 million gold-equivalent ounces annually. | The world's largest gold mining company following the acquisition of Newcrest Mining, with operations across Nevada, Colorado, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Suriname, and Canada. Newmont produces approximately 6–7 million gold-equivalent ounces annually. |
| Investor focus | All-in sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce, production growth from Tasiast (Mauritania) and Great Bear (Canada) development, and FCF generation at current gold prices. | AISC per ounce vs mid-tier peers, integration and asset divestiture progress following Newcrest acquisition, dividend yield, and production profile from Tier 1 mines. |
- Kinross has a streamlined, lower-geopolitical-risk portfolio after exiting Russian operations following the Ukraine invasion
- Tasiast mine in Mauritania is a high-quality, low-cost asset driving Kinross's production growth
- Great Bear project in Ontario (acquired 2022) is one of the highest-grade undeveloped gold deposits in the Americas
- Newmont is the world's largest gold producer with the most diversified Tier 1 mine portfolio across five continents
- Significant dividend yield makes Newmont a meaningful income option for gold exposure in equity portfolios
- Newcrest acquisition added high-quality Australian and Papua New Guinean assets including Cadia (low AISC) and Lihir
- West Africa operations carry geopolitical and permitting risk — Mauritania and Ghana require ongoing relationship management
- Great Bear development capital requirements are significant and could strain the balance sheet if gold prices weaken
- Kinross is a mid-tier producer with less scale than Newmont — less diversification against single-mine operational issues
- Post-Newcrest integration complexity has weighed on operational performance — higher-than-expected AISC and execution challenges
- Newmont plans to divest several non-core mines acquired through Newcrest — asset sale execution affects earnings and leverage
- At Newmont's scale, production growth is harder to achieve — future ounce growth requires large capital projects with long lead times
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