AA vs CENX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AA (Alcoa) is the largest integrated global aluminum producer with bauxite-to-aluminum vertical integration and international asset diversification, while CENX (Century Aluminum) is a smaller U.S.-focused primary smelter with domestic policy tailwind potential. Both face the challenge of competing with lower-cost global aluminum production, primarily from China.
AA vs CENX contrasts the global integrated aluminum major against a smaller U.S. domestic smelter, both navigating structural competition from Chinese overcapacity while serving different market positions in the aluminum value chain.
CENX holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CENX leads on both 1-year return (+45.02%) and forward P/E quality (3.92x vs 8.51x for AA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, AA is growing revenue faster (31.40%), while CENX maintains the higher operating margin (28.14%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CENX (+48.05%) than for AA (+30.49%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the largest, most diversified publicly traded global aluminum producer with integrated bauxite-to-metal operations
- Value Alcoa's lower-carbon aluminum technology positioning for premium market access as sustainability pricing develops
- Prefer geographic and value-chain diversification within aluminum sector exposure
- See U.S. domestic aluminum smelting benefiting from trade protection policies and national security considerations
- Want a pure-play U.S. aluminum smelter with higher beta to aluminum price movements than larger integrated producers
- Believe domestic manufacturing policy support will provide structural advantages for U.S.-based aluminum production
| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.7 | 51.1 |
| AI ranki | #1003 | #478 |
| Latest closei | $44.43 | $39.01 |
| 1M returni | -13.80% | -10.49% |
| 6M returni | -24.25% | -20.34% |
| 1Y returni | +35.79% | +45.02% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.58K (+35.8%) started 2025-09-18 | $14.5K (+45.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $9.17K (-8.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $31.16K (+211.6%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $19.75K (+97.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $64.59K (+545.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $12.74B | $4.68B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.03 | 7.99 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.51 | 3.92 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.00 | 1.84 |
| Analyst targeti | $62.98 | $70.00 |
| Target upsidei | +30.49% | +48.05% |
| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 31.40% | 19.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 146.80% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +146.80% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +7.06% | -1.74% |
| Operating margini | 18.36% | 28.14% |
| Profit margini | 9.39% | 22.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | 18.23% | 51.75% |
| Return on equityi | 18.23% | 51.75% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.83% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 8.32% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.63 | 2.00 |
| Debt/equityi | 29.92 | 31.28 |
| Current ratioi | 1.53 | 2.75 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 1.44 |
Over the past year, AA and CENX have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +35.79% | +45.02% |
| CAGRi | +35.82% | +45.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.28% | 65.70% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | 0.83 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.12 | 1.23 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.82% | 43.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.97% | 43.27% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.82% | 13.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.08% | 19.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.47% | 13.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.93% | 19.06% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -8.32% | +211.58% |
| CAGRi | -1.72% | +25.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.71% | 71.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.17 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.24 | 0.92 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.26% | 82.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.26% | 43.27% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 50.88% | 41.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.65% | 49.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.94% | 18.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.32% | 32.86% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +97.54% | +545.86% |
| CAGRi | +7.05% | +20.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.33% | 70.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.46 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.90% | 87.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.26% | 43.27% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.11% | 44.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.21% | 51.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.07% | 20.37% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 37.50% | 35.19% |
| Category | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Alcoa Corporation | Century Aluminum Company |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Aluminum | Aluminum |
| Core business | Alcoa is one of the world's largest integrated aluminum producers, operating across the full value chain from bauxite mining and alumina refining to primary aluminum smelting, with operations in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. | Century Aluminum is a U.S.-focused primary aluminum smelter operating facilities in Kentucky, West Virginia, and South Carolina (plus international operations), producing primary aluminum for domestic industrial customers. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Alcoa's aluminum production volumes, realized aluminum prices including regional premiums, EBITDA per ton, and the company's progress on operational efficiency and cost position in a competitive global market. | Investors track Century Aluminum's U.S. production volumes, cost position versus LME aluminum prices and energy costs, and the potential for domestic policy tailwinds including Section 232 tariffs and government support for domestic aluminum capacity. |
- Integrated bauxite-to-aluminum value chain reduces exposure to raw material cost volatility compared to pure smelters
- Global asset base with operations in stable and resource-rich jurisdictions reduces single-country risk
- Lower-carbon aluminum technology positions Alcoa for premium pricing as sustainability-linked aluminum demand grows
- U.S. domestic aluminum smelting has strategic value as critical infrastructure for defense and industrial supply chains
- U.S. domestic production benefits from aluminum import tariffs that protect domestic smelters from low-cost foreign competition
- Potential beneficiary of government support for domestic critical materials production
- Aluminum prices are highly cyclical and sensitive to Chinese capacity decisions and global industrial demand
- Energy costs are the dominant variable cost for smelting, making Alcoa sensitive to electricity prices in its operating regions
- ESG-linked premium aluminum market is still developing, limiting near-term premium pricing upside
- Electricity costs are the primary cost driver for smelting, and U.S. electricity prices are elevated relative to global competitors
- Century is a smaller, less diversified producer than Alcoa, making it more exposed to aluminum price swings
- Global aluminum overcapacity primarily from Chinese producers keeps LME prices structurally challenged, pressuring margins for high-cost Western smelters
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