USB vs WFC: US Bancorp vs Wells Fargo Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
US Bancorp is a disciplined super-regional bank with strong payment services and fee income diversification, while Wells Fargo is a large-cap bank recovering from a decade of regulatory issues with the Federal Reserve asset cap as the key unresolved overhang. USB is the higher-quality bank today; WFC has the larger potential upside if the asset cap is removed.
USB vs WFC is quality super-regional banking versus a large-bank recovery trade — US Bancorp offers consistent returns and fee income quality; Wells Fargo offers a potential step-change in earnings power if the asset cap is lifted.
USB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. USB has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+26.44% vs -3.00%), though WFC has the better forward P/E setup (10.40x vs 10.79x for USB). USB leads on both revenue growth (10.40%) and operating margin (39.65%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WFC (+18.17%) than for USB (+12.56%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want a consistently high-quality super-regional bank with payment services differentiation
- prefer Elavon merchant processing and corporate trust as durable fee income sources
- value US Bancorp's disciplined capital allocation and return-on-assets track record
- are less interested in speculative regulatory catalyst investing and prefer steady compounding
- want exposure to a large-bank recovery trade with the asset cap removal as a potential re-rating catalyst
- believe CEO Scharf's expense and revenue restructuring is creating significant earnings upside
- prefer a massive consumer deposit franchise at a discount to JPMorgan and Bank of America
- are comfortable with regulatory uncertainty in exchange for asymmetric upside if the cap is lifted
| Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.6 | 42.0 |
| AI ranki | #846 | #871 |
| Latest closei | $58.73 | $83.87 |
| 1M returni | -1.67% | -3.65% |
| 3M returni | -6.98% | -4.16% |
| 6M returni | +3.16% | +3.02% |
| 1Y returni | +26.44% | -3.00% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.87K (+28.7%) started 2025-10-16 | $9.98K (-0.2%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $13.51K (+35.1%) started 2021-10-18 | $20.59K (+105.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $26.93K (+169.3%) started 2016-10-17 | $31.94K (+219.4%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $97.33B | $252.66B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.47 | 12.14 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.79 | 10.40 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.75 | 3.22 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.90 | 3.04 |
| Analyst targeti | $70.32 | $98.73 |
| Target upsidei | +12.56% | +18.17% |
| Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.40% | 9.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 21.60% | 25.00% |
| EPS growthi | +21.60% | +25.00% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 39.65% | 37.39% |
| Profit margini | 29.90% | 27.23% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.62% | 12.57% |
| Return on equityi | 12.62% | 12.57% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.33% | 2.39% |
| Payout ratioi | 41.52% | 26.16% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.98 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, USB and WFC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.69), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +28.65% | -0.15% |
| CAGRi | +28.70% | -0.15% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.14% | 25.68% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.05 | -0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.50 | -0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.21% | 23.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.23% | 12.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.27% | 10.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.20% | 12.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.86% | 5.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.82% | 8.74% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +13.82% | +86.47% |
| CAGRi | +2.62% | +13.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.55% | 29.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.13% | 37.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.23% | 12.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.36% | 13.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.91% | 17.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.04% | 9.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.45% | 17.68% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +87.68% | +141.49% |
| CAGRi | +6.50% | +9.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.38% | 32.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.21 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.13% | 64.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.23% | 12.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.94% | 18.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.61% | 23.99% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.44% | 15.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.80% | 30.08% |
| Category | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | U.S. Bancorp | Wells Fargo & Company |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | Banks - Diversified |
| Core business | Diversified super-regional bank serving consumers, businesses, and institutions across 26 states with consumer banking, commercial banking, wealth management, payment services (U.S. Bank Visa, Elavon merchant processing), and corporate trust. | One of the four largest US banks, providing consumer, commercial, and investment banking alongside wealth management. Wells Fargo has been operating under a Federal Reserve asset cap imposed in 2018 following its fake-accounts scandal, limiting balance sheet growth. |
| Investor focus | Payment services revenue as a fee-income diversifier, Union Bank integration benefits, NIM trajectory, credit quality, and CET1 capital ratio normalization. | Fed asset cap removal timeline (each quarter without it is a potential catalyst), NIM improvement, fee revenue growth from investment banking, and expense reduction targets. |
- Best-in-class return on assets historically among large US banks — known for disciplined capital allocation
- Payments and fee services provide high-quality non-interest income that reduces NIM sensitivity
- Strong consumer franchise with deep payments and merchant processing expertise through Elavon
- Asset cap removal would be a major catalyst — unlocking Wells Fargo's ability to grow loans and deposits significantly
- Massive consumer deposit franchise and branch network provides a low-cost funding base
- CEO Charlie Scharf's multi-year expense and revenue improvement plan is generating measurable results
- Union Bank acquisition integration costs and credit mark drag on near-term earnings
- USB operates under the large bank regulatory category following Union Bank, which adds compliance costs
- Mortgage banking and commercial real estate exposure in a high-rate environment
- Asset cap remains in place and removal timing is uncertain — this is the single largest swing factor for WFC's earnings potential
- Regulatory scrutiny and consent orders require significant compliance infrastructure spending
- Investment banking build-out faces stiff competition from JPMorgan, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley
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