PSX vs VLO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Phillips 66 and Valero are both major US downstream energy companies, but Phillips 66 operates a more diversified mix of refining, midstream, and chemicals businesses, while Valero is a more concentrated pure-play refiner with a growing renewable diesel business layered on top.
PSX offers diversified downstream exposure that smooths refining cycle volatility, while VLO offers more concentrated refining leverage plus renewable fuel optionality. The decision depends on whether you prefer diversification or more direct refining cycle exposure.
VLO holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VLO leads on both 1-year return (+175.85%) and forward P/E quality (10.05x vs 11.79x for PSX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, PSX is growing revenue faster (53.10%), while VLO maintains the higher operating margin (12.27%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: -9.02% for PSX and -10.38% for VLO.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified downstream exposure spanning refining, midstream, and chemicals
- Prefer earnings smoothed by fee-based midstream cash flow alongside refining margins
- Believe the chemicals joint venture adds a differentiated demand driver beyond fuel markets
- Are comfortable valuing a more complex, multi-segment energy business
- Want more concentrated exposure to refining crack spread cycles
- Believe renewable diesel growth offers a meaningful lower-carbon fuel growth avenue
- Value scale advantages from operating one of the largest independent refinery networks
- Prefer a company with a consistent track record of dividends and buybacks
| Metric | PSX | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 57.7 | 68.0 |
| AI ranki | #296 | #48 |
| Latest closei | $289.20 | $444.06 |
| 1M returni | +9.16% | +11.84% |
| 3M returni | +43.65% | +47.89% |
| 6M returni | +77.06% | +83.69% |
| 1Y returni | +123.20% | +175.85% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PSX | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $22.53K (+125.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $28.39K (+183.9%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $48.09K (+380.9%) started 2021-10-18 | $73.15K (+631.5%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $75.76K (+657.6%) started 2016-10-17 | $177.48K (+1674.8%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PSX | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $97.83B | $124.89B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 13.93 | 18.08 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.79 | 10.05 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.76 | 0.99 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.00 | $388.74 |
| Target upsidei | -9.02% | -10.38% |
| Metric | PSX | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 53.10% | 51.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 344.90% | 453.50% |
| EPS growthi | +344.90% | +453.50% |
| FCF margini | +2.99% | +6.36% |
| Operating margini | 8.53% | 12.27% |
| Profit margini | 4.66% | 5.45% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.45% | 27.64% |
| Return on equityi | 23.45% | 27.64% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.08% | 1.11% |
| Payout ratioi | 28.23% | 19.42% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| Debt/equityi | 62.88 | 40.15 |
| Current ratioi | 1.32 | 1.64 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.86 | 1.05 |
Over the past year, PSX and VLO have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.85), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PSX | VLO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +125.30% | +183.94% |
| CAGRi | +125.61% | +184.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.63% | 37.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.60 | 2.86 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 4.26 | 4.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.28% | 12.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.72% | 3.42% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.89% | 3.22% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.68% | 4.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.88% | 7.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.97% | 8.48% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +312.39% | +544.45% |
| CAGRi | +32.80% | +45.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.89% | 36.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.89 | 1.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.29 | 1.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.37% | 41.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.72% | 3.42% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.06% | 12.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.39% | 16.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.61% | 14.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.32% | 21.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +410.56% | +1068.41% |
| CAGRi | +17.71% | +27.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.61% | 40.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.70 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.74 | 1.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.21% | 71.88% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.72% | 3.42% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.15% | 19.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.95% | 24.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.87% | 19.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.54% | 35.65% |
| Category | PSX | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Phillips 66 | Valero Energy Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| Core business | A diversified downstream energy company operating refining, midstream logistics, and chemicals businesses, with refining assets processing crude oil into fuels alongside pipeline and storage infrastructure and a petrochemicals joint venture. | One of the world's largest independent petroleum refiners, operating a network of refineries alongside a growing renewable diesel and ethanol production business focused on lower-carbon fuel alternatives. |
| Investor focus | Refining margin capture relative to industry benchmarks, midstream segment cash flow growth, and chemicals joint venture earnings contribution. | Refining throughput utilization and crack spread capture, renewable diesel segment growth and margin trends, and shareholder return consistency through dividends and buybacks. |
- Diversified business mix spanning refining, midstream, and chemicals smooths earnings relative to a pure-play refiner
- Midstream logistics assets generate more fee-based, less commodity-sensitive cash flow than refining alone
- Chemicals joint venture provides exposure to petrochemical demand cycles that run somewhat independently of refining margins
- Scale as one of the largest independent refiners provides operational efficiencies and purchasing advantages across its refinery network
- Growing renewable diesel business provides exposure to lower-carbon fuel demand supported by regulatory incentive programs
- Consistent shareholder return program through dividends and buybacks has been a hallmark of the company's capital allocation approach
- Refining segment earnings remain highly sensitive to crack spreads, which can swing significantly with fuel demand and crude price cycles
- Complex multi-segment structure can make it harder for investors to cleanly value each individual business line
- Chemicals joint venture earnings introduce an additional layer of cyclicality tied to global industrial demand
- Core refining earnings remain highly cyclical and sensitive to crack spread compression during periods of weak fuel demand
- Renewable diesel economics depend partly on government incentive programs that can change with policy shifts
- Concentrated refining business model provides less segment diversification than integrated energy companies with midstream or chemicals operations
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