AAL vs DAL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
DAL is widely regarded as the financially strongest and most reliably profitable of the legacy U.S. carriers, while AAL carries the heaviest debt burden and has historically trailed in margins, making it more of a turnaround and deleveraging story.
AAL vs DAL contrasts the most financially leveraged major U.S. airline against the industry's margin and balance-sheet leader.
DAL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DAL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+45.38% vs -0.38%), though AAL has the better forward P/E setup (5.79x vs 9.21x for DAL). DAL leads on both revenue growth (18.70%) and operating margin (7.92%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AAL (+37.19%) than for DAL (+31.37%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- See turnaround upside given American's depressed valuation and high leverage
- Believe continued deleveraging will narrow the valuation gap with peers
- Can tolerate higher financial risk in a cyclical industry
- Want exposure to the airline industry's most financially stable major carrier
- Value strong premium and loyalty revenue economics
- Prefer lower balance-sheet risk within a cyclical sector
| Metric | AAL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 27.0 | 45.5 |
| AI ranki | #2442 | #768 |
| Latest closei | $13.08 | $83.42 |
| 1M returni | +1.08% | -0.80% |
| 3M returni | -18.45% | -8.92% |
| 6M returni | +10.75% | +21.78% |
| 1Y returni | -0.38% | +45.38% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AAL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.81K (-1.9%) started 2025-11-03 | $14.26K (+42.6%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $6.34K (-36.6%) started 2021-11-03 | $21.1K (+111.0%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $3.32K (-66.8%) started 2016-11-03 | $24.67K (+146.7%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AAL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $8.61B | $52.66B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 48.32 | 13.28 |
| Forward P/Ei | 5.79 | 9.21 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.62 | 1.01 |
| Analyst targeti | $17.85 | $105.19 |
| Target upsidei | +37.19% | +31.37% |
| Metric | AAL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.30% | 18.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -88.20% | -25.40% |
| EPS growthi | -88.20% | -25.40% |
| FCF margini | +0.89% | +4.13% |
| Operating margini | 2.81% | 7.92% |
| Profit margini | -0.56% | 5.78% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 20.13% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 20.13% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.97% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 15.52% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.33 | 1.31 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 96.65 |
| Current ratioi | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.38 | 0.27 |
Over the past year, AAL and DAL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.85), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AAL | DAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -1.95% | +42.60% |
| CAGRi | -1.96% | +42.76% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.85% | 38.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | 1.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.14 | 1.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.39% | 23.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.93% | 10.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.32% | 7.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.73% | 9.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.35% | 6.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.42% | 13.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -36.60% | +106.57% |
| CAGRi | -8.71% | +15.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.42% | 40.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.04 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.06 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 59.25% | 47.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.24% | 10.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 36.81% | 15.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.32% | 18.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.48% | 12.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.57% | 24.57% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -66.79% | +120.97% |
| CAGRi | -10.44% | +8.25% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.08% | 42.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.03 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | 0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.54% | 69.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | 77.63% | 10.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 59.06% | 22.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 64.20% | 28.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.22% | 25.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.76% | 44.95% |
| Category | AAL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | American Airlines Group Inc. | Delta Air Lines, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Airlines | Airlines |
| Core business | American Airlines is one of the largest U.S. airlines by fleet size and network reach, operating a major hub system but carrying the highest debt load among the big three legacy U.S. carriers. | Delta Air Lines is one of the largest U.S. legacy carriers, operating an extensive domestic and international network with a strong hub system and a high-margin premium and loyalty revenue strategy. |
| Investor focus | Investors track American's deleveraging progress, margin performance relative to Delta and United, and execution of its network and premium revenue strategies. | Investors track Delta's premium cabin and loyalty (SkyMiles/Amex co-brand) revenue growth, operational reliability metrics, and margin leadership relative to peers. |
- Extensive domestic hub network and large fleet scale
- Improving premium and loyalty revenue initiatives
- Largest U.S. airline by fleet size provides network breadth
- Industry-leading operational reliability and on-time performance
- Strong premium and loyalty revenue mix supports higher margins
- Lucrative American Express co-brand credit card partnership
- Highest debt load among major U.S. legacy carriers limits financial flexibility
- Historically lower margins than Delta and United
- Greater sensitivity to fuel and labor cost inflation given thinner margins
- Highly cyclical industry sensitive to fuel costs and economic downturns
- Labor cost inflation following recent pilot and crew contract negotiations
- Heavy capital intensity of fleet maintenance and renewal
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