CSX vs NSC Railroad Stock Comparison 2026: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CSX and Norfolk Southern are the two dominant eastern U.S. freight railroads with complementary but overlapping franchise territories, making them natural comparison investments. CSX has generally been viewed as the operational efficiency leader in recent years, while Norfolk Southern has been working through operational improvement efforts following service challenges.
CSX vs NSC compares the two dominant eastern U.S. Class I freight railroads, both offering exposure to the durable competitive advantages of regulated rail franchises with distinct operational profiles.
CSX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CSX leads on both 1-year return (+39.45%) and forward P/E quality (22.58x vs 24.35x for NSC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, NSC is growing revenue faster (11.40%), while CSX maintains the higher operating margin (38.42%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +3.63% for CSX and +4.76% for NSC.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the eastern U.S. rail franchise generally viewed as the current operational efficiency leader
- Value CSX's track record of precision scheduled railroading and operating ratio discipline
- Prefer a railroad with somewhat lower near-term controversy than Norfolk Southern
- See value in Norfolk Southern's operational improvement trajectory
- Believe the worst of the post-East Palestine liability and reputational headwinds are behind the company
- Want exposure to a comparable eastern railroad potentially at a valuation discount to CSX
| Metric | CSX | NSC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.4 | 52.0 |
| AI ranki | #260 | #368 |
| Latest closei | $45.99 | $309.07 |
| 1M returni | -10.85% | -11.88% |
| 6M returni | +18.10% | +8.46% |
| 1Y returni | +39.45% | +8.94% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CSX | NSC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.85K (+38.5%) started 2025-09-22 | $10.64K (+6.4%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $16.73K (+67.3%) started 2021-09-23 | $15.09K (+50.9%) started 2021-09-23 |
| 10Y ago | $59.1K (+491.0%) started 2016-09-23 | $47.97K (+379.7%) started 2016-09-23 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CSX | NSC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $94.99B | $78.32B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 29.81 | 29.75 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.58 | 24.35 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.79 | 7.53 |
| Analyst targeti | $53.14 | $365.28 |
| Target upsidei | +3.63% | +4.76% |
| Metric | CSX | NSC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.10% | 11.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 22.70% | -4.40% |
| EPS growthi | +22.70% | -4.40% |
| FCF margini | +13.46% | +11.02% |
| Operating margini | 38.42% | 35.30% |
| Profit margini | 22.21% | 21.02% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.36% | 16.98% |
| Return on equityi | 24.36% | 16.98% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.09% | 1.55% |
| Payout ratioi | 31.40% | 46.08% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| Debt/equityi | 138.07 | 105.52 |
| Current ratioi | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.67 |
Over the past year, CSX and NSC have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.75), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CSX | NSC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +38.52% | +6.37% |
| CAGRi | +38.63% | +6.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.38% | 20.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.38 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.22 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.60% | 12.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.60% | 12.44% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.01% | 3.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.17% | 4.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.81% | 5.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.42% | 6.41% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +59.54% | +38.61% |
| CAGRi | +9.80% | +6.75% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.49% | 25.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.47 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.44% | 35.64% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.60% | 12.44% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.83% | 13.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.94% | 15.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.71% | 7.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.25% | 12.79% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +422.82% | +294.99% |
| CAGRi | +17.99% | +14.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.75% | 27.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.86 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.55% | 44.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.60% | 12.44% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.47% | 9.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.00% | 13.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.55% | 13.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.55% | 23.87% |
| Category | CSX | NSC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CSX Corporation | Norfolk Southern Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | CSX operates one of the largest freight rail networks in the eastern United States, transporting intermodal containers, coal, chemicals, agricultural products, and other goods across a network spanning 23 states. | Norfolk Southern operates a major freight rail network across the eastern United States, transporting intermodal, coal, merchandise, and automotive products, with particular strength in mid-Atlantic and southeastern routes. |
| Investor focus | Investors track CSX's operating ratio (a key railroad efficiency metric), volume trends across coal, intermodal, and merchandise segments, and its ability to sustain pricing power above inflation. | Investors track Norfolk Southern's operating ratio recovery, progress on operational improvement initiatives following service challenges, and volume and pricing trends across its major freight segments. |
- Franchise territory with no direct rail-on-rail competition for most of its network
- Precision scheduled railroading (PSR) operational model has driven significant efficiency improvements
- Intermodal and merchandise freight provide diversification beyond the historically volatile coal segment
- Extensive eastern U.S. franchise network with no direct rail-on-rail competition for most routes
- Strong automotive and industrial freight exposure with diverse commodity mix
- Ongoing operational improvement efforts targeting operating ratio recovery toward peer levels
- Coal volumes have been on a long-term secular decline as utilities shift to natural gas and renewables
- Intermodal competition with long-haul trucking is price-sensitive during freight downturns
- Network disruptions from severe weather or derailments can affect quarterly results
- Experienced operational and service challenges in prior years that pressured efficiency metrics
- The East Palestine, Ohio derailment in 2023 generated significant liability and reputational costs
- Coal is a long-term secular headwind for volume mix as energy transition accelerates
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