XPO vs SAIA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Both XPO and SAIA are national LTL freight carriers that have benefited from Yellow Freight's 2023 bankruptcy, gaining service centers and freight volumes. XPO is larger with a more established national network, while Saia is aggressively expanding its footprint and has a strong track record of operational excellence.
XPO vs SAIA compares two leading LTL freight carriers competing for market share following the industry-reshaping bankruptcy of Yellow Freight.
SAIA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XPO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+33.14% vs +12.26%), though SAIA has the better forward P/E setup (23.46x vs 28.90x for XPO). SAIA leads on both revenue growth (17.10%) and operating margin (13.09%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SAIA (+31.22%) than for XPO (+25.14%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to one of the largest national LTL freight networks
- Believe XPO's service improvements and yield management will drive operating ratio expansion
- See value in XPO's scale and density advantages following Yellow's exit
- Want exposure to a high-quality, rapidly growing LTL carrier
- Believe Saia's national network expansion will drive long-term market share gains
- Are comfortable paying a growth premium for a track record of strong operational execution
| Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 72.6 | 57.1 |
| AI ranki | #29 | #193 |
| Latest closei | $174.34 | $348.04 |
| 1M returni | -11.83% | -3.90% |
| 6M returni | -6.07% | +5.63% |
| 1Y returni | +33.14% | +12.26% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.27K (+32.7%) started 2025-09-22 | $11.49K (+14.9%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $35.01K (+250.1%) started 2021-09-22 | $14.3K (+43.0%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $140.02K (+1300.2%) started 2016-09-22 | $113.33K (+1033.3%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $21.78B | $8.83B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 54.86 | 32.05 |
| Forward P/Ei | 28.90 | 23.46 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.98 | 2.65 |
| Analyst targeti | $232.74 | $435.71 |
| Target upsidei | +25.14% | +31.22% |
| Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.20% | 17.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 52.80% | 31.50% |
| EPS growthi | +52.80% | +31.50% |
| FCF margini | +5.53% | +4.00% |
| Operating margini | 12.31% | 13.09% |
| Profit margini | 4.71% | 8.19% |
| ROIC proxyi | 21.59% | 10.77% |
| Return on equityi | 21.59% | 10.77% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.72 | 2.14 |
| Debt/equityi | 206.17 | 9.87 |
| Current ratioi | 1.01 | 1.58 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.87 | 1.40 |
Over the past year, XPO and SAIA have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.74), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +32.72% | +14.93% |
| CAGRi | +32.82% | +14.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.88% | 47.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.70% | 31.93% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.66% | 28.55% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.14% | 10.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.04% | 13.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.52% | 11.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.37% | 20.39% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +250.05% | +43.03% |
| CAGRi | +28.49% | +7.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.06% | 51.85% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.04 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.34% | 60.94% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.66% | 42.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.74% | 28.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.19% | 33.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.96% | 30.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.64% | 32.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1300.24% | +1033.31% |
| CAGRi | +30.21% | +27.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.09% | 45.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.70 | 0.67 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.04 | 0.96 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.48% | 60.94% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.66% | 42.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.93% | 19.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.05% | 25.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.17% | 30.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 37.52% | 32.20% |
| Category | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | XPO, Inc. | Saia, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Trucking | Trucking |
| Core business | XPO is one of the largest less-than-truckload freight carriers in North America, operating a dense service center network to move partial truckloads for commercial customers, with a focus on premium service and yield improvement. | Saia is a national less-than-truckload freight carrier that has been aggressively expanding its service center network and national footprint, with a strong track record of improving operating ratio and service quality metrics. |
| Investor focus | Investors track XPO's shipment volume trends, revenue per shipment (yield), operating ratio improvement, and its ability to capture service center capacity following Yellow Freight's bankruptcy. | Investors track Saia's service center opening pace and network expansion progress, shipment volume and yield trends, and operating ratio improvement as its national network matures. |
- One of the largest LTL networks in North America with strong national coverage
- Benefited significantly from Yellow Freight's bankruptcy by capturing service centers and freight volumes
- Focused on premium service and yield improvement as key margin drivers
- Consistently strong operating ratio and service quality metrics relative to industry peers
- Accelerating national network expansion by opening new service centers
- Benefited from Yellow Freight's bankruptcy by capturing freight and experienced personnel
- LTL freight volumes are cyclically sensitive to broader industrial and manufacturing activity
- Network expansion and integration of former Yellow facilities carries execution risk
- Faces competition from other large LTL players including Old Dominion, Saia, and ABF Freight
- LTL freight volumes are cyclically sensitive to broader economic conditions
- Rapid service center expansion requires significant capital investment ahead of revenue
- Shares often trade at a premium valuation reflecting growth expectations
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