ODFL vs SAIA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Old Dominion and Saia both operate less-than-truckload freight networks, but Old Dominion represents the industry's most established, highest-performing operator, while Saia has pursued aggressive terminal network expansion into new markets, trading near-term efficiency for longer-term growth potential.
Old Dominion offers exposure to an established, premium-performing LTL operator with a long track record, while Saia offers a growth story built around network expansion into new markets with efficiency upside as terminals mature. Consider whether you prefer Old Dominion's proven quality premium or Saia's network expansion growth potential.
ODFL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ODFL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+24.59% vs +10.74%), though SAIA has the better forward P/E setup (23.46x vs 29.91x for ODFL). On fundamentals, SAIA is growing revenue faster (17.10%), while ODFL maintains the higher operating margin (28.84%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SAIA (+31.22%) than for ODFL (+16.87%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to an established, industry-leading LTL operator with a long track record of superior execution
- Value consistent reinvestment in terminal network capacity supporting sustained market share gains
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for a proven, high-quality service provider
- Prefer stability and consistency over network expansion-driven growth potential
- Believe continued network expansion into new geographic markets will drive above-industry growth
- See operating efficiency upside potential as newer terminals mature and reach greater volume density
- Are comfortable with the execution risk inherent in a rapidly expanding terminal network
- Want exposure to potential market share gains in newer LTL geographic markets
| Metric | ODFL | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.3 | 57.2 |
| AI ranki | #145 | #226 |
| Latest closei | $180.96 | $353.80 |
| 1M returni | -14.22% | -7.94% |
| 6M returni | -1.88% | +7.55% |
| 1Y returni | +24.59% | +10.74% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ODFL | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.31K (+23.1%) started 2025-09-16 | $10.77K (+7.7%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $12.9K (+29.0%) started 2021-09-17 | $14.32K (+43.2%) started 2021-09-16 |
| 10Y ago | $84.15K (+741.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $115.28K (+1052.8%) started 2016-09-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ODFL | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $41.31B | $8.83B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 38.20 | 32.05 |
| Forward P/Ei | 29.91 | 23.46 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.91 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.30 | 2.65 |
| Analyst targeti | $232.14 | $435.71 |
| Target upsidei | +16.87% | +31.22% |
| Metric | ODFL | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.40% | 17.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 32.30% | 31.50% |
| EPS growthi | +32.30% | +31.50% |
| FCF margini | +17.33% | +4.00% |
| Operating margini | 28.84% | 13.09% |
| Profit margini | 19.44% | 8.19% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.82% | 10.77% |
| Return on equityi | 24.82% | 10.77% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.58% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 21.92% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.18 | 2.14 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.44 | 9.87 |
| Current ratioi | 1.89 | 1.58 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.71 | 1.40 |
Over the past year, ODFL and SAIA have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.83), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ODFL | SAIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +23.09% | +7.67% |
| CAGRi | +23.14% | +7.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.78% | 47.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | 0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.72% | 31.93% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.25% | 27.37% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.68% | 10.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.12% | 13.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.93% | 11.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.35% | 20.39% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +26.96% | +43.16% |
| CAGRi | +4.89% | +7.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.92% | 51.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.37% | 60.94% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.25% | 41.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.75% | 28.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.09% | 33.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.97% | 30.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 32.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +712.99% | +1052.82% |
| CAGRi | +23.34% | +27.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.30% | 45.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 0.67 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 0.97 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.37% | 60.94% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.25% | 41.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.27% | 19.22% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.46% | 25.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.97% | 30.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 32.20% |
| Category | ODFL | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | Saia, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Trucking | Trucking |
| Core business | A less-than-truckload motor carrier providing regional, inter-regional, and national LTL freight transportation services along with logistics services across the United States and select international markets. | A less-than-truckload motor carrier providing regional and interregional LTL freight transportation services, having expanded its terminal network into new geographic markets in recent years. |
| Investor focus | Operating ratio trends, tonnage and revenue per hundredweight growth, and continued network capacity investment supporting service quality. | Network expansion progress into newer geographic markets, terminal maturation and productivity improvement, and operating ratio trends as the network scales. |
- Industry-leading operating ratio reflects a long track record of superior service quality and cost discipline
- Consistent reinvestment in terminal network capacity has supported market share gains over time
- Strong reputation for on-time delivery and low damage claims commands premium pricing versus competitors
- Aggressive terminal network expansion into new geographic markets has driven above-industry volume and revenue growth
- Growing network density as newer terminals mature provides a path toward improved operating efficiency over time
- Expanding geographic coverage increases the addressable market for LTL freight opportunities
- Premium valuation reflects high performance expectations, leaving less room for execution missteps
- LTL freight volumes are sensitive to broader industrial production and manufacturing activity cycles
- Continued capital investment in terminal capacity requires sustained volume growth to generate expected returns
- Newer terminals typically operate at lower efficiency until they mature and reach sufficient volume density
- Operating ratio has historically trailed top-tier peers like Old Dominion, reflecting the network's earlier stage of maturity
- Rapid network expansion requires sustained capital investment and disciplined execution to succeed
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