ODFL vs XPO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Old Dominion and XPO both operate less-than-truckload freight networks, but Old Dominion has long been recognized as the industry's premium, highest-performing operator, while XPO has narrowed its focus to core LTL operations and is working to close the operating performance gap with top-tier peers.
Old Dominion offers exposure to an established, premium-performing LTL operator with a long track record, while XPO offers a turnaround opportunity if continued network optimization closes its performance gap with peers. Consider whether you prefer Old Dominion's proven quality premium or XPO's turnaround upside potential.
XPO holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XPO leads on both 1-year return (+33.09%) and forward P/E quality (28.90x vs 29.91x for ODFL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, XPO is growing revenue faster (13.20%), while ODFL maintains the higher operating margin (28.84%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for XPO (+25.14%) than for ODFL (+16.87%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to an established, industry-leading LTL operator with a long track record of superior execution
- Value consistent reinvestment in terminal network capacity supporting sustained market share gains
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for a proven, high-quality service provider
- Prefer stability and consistency over turnaround-driven upside potential
- Believe continued network optimization and service improvements can close the operating ratio gap with top-tier LTL peers
- See turnaround upside potential from XPO's narrowed focus on core LTL operations
- Are comfortable with the execution risk inherent in a still-developing operational improvement story
- Want exposure to potential margin expansion as service metrics continue improving
| Metric | ODFL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.3 | 73.7 |
| AI ranki | #145 | #28 |
| Latest closei | $180.96 | $178.24 |
| 1M returni | -14.22% | -15.55% |
| 6M returni | -1.88% | -5.37% |
| 1Y returni | +24.59% | +33.09% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ODFL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.31K (+23.1%) started 2025-09-16 | $13.16K (+31.6%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $12.9K (+29.0%) started 2021-09-17 | $35.73K (+257.3%) started 2021-09-16 |
| 10Y ago | $84.15K (+741.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $149.29K (+1392.9%) started 2016-09-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ODFL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $41.31B | $21.78B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 38.20 | 54.86 |
| Forward P/Ei | 29.91 | 28.90 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.91 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.30 | 2.98 |
| Analyst targeti | $232.14 | $232.74 |
| Target upsidei | +16.87% | +25.14% |
| Metric | ODFL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.40% | 13.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 32.30% | 52.80% |
| EPS growthi | +32.30% | +52.80% |
| FCF margini | +17.33% | +5.53% |
| Operating margini | 28.84% | 12.31% |
| Profit margini | 19.44% | 4.71% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.82% | 21.59% |
| Return on equityi | 24.82% | 21.59% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.58% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 21.92% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.18 | 1.72 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.44 | 206.17 |
| Current ratioi | 1.89 | 1.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.71 | 0.87 |
Over the past year, ODFL and XPO have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.74), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ODFL | XPO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +23.09% | +31.64% |
| CAGRi | +23.14% | +31.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.78% | 42.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | 1.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.72% | 21.95% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.25% | 21.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.68% | 6.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.12% | 8.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.93% | 8.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.35% | 12.37% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +26.96% | +257.29% |
| CAGRi | +4.89% | +29.01% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.92% | 47.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 1.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.37% | 51.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.25% | 21.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.75% | 16.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.09% | 21.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.97% | 13.96% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 18.64% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +712.99% | +1392.94% |
| CAGRi | +23.34% | +31.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.30% | 47.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 1.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.37% | 64.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.25% | 21.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.27% | 17.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.46% | 24.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.97% | 26.17% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 37.52% |
| Category | ODFL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | XPO, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Trucking | Trucking |
| Core business | A less-than-truckload motor carrier providing regional, inter-regional, and national LTL freight transportation services along with logistics services across the United States and select international markets. | A less-than-truckload motor carrier providing freight transportation services across North America, having narrowed its focus to core LTL operations following prior business divestitures. |
| Investor focus | Operating ratio trends, tonnage and revenue per hundredweight growth, and continued network capacity investment supporting service quality. | Operating ratio improvement progress, service quality and network efficiency initiatives, and success narrowing the performance gap with premium LTL peers. |
- Industry-leading operating ratio reflects a long track record of superior service quality and cost discipline
- Consistent reinvestment in terminal network capacity has supported market share gains over time
- Strong reputation for on-time delivery and low damage claims commands premium pricing versus competitors
- Focused LTL strategy following divestitures has concentrated management attention on core network performance improvement
- Ongoing network optimization and service center investments aim to close the operating ratio gap with top-tier peers
- Improving service metrics and yield management have supported gradual margin improvement over recent periods
- Premium valuation reflects high performance expectations, leaving less room for execution missteps
- LTL freight volumes are sensitive to broader industrial production and manufacturing activity cycles
- Continued capital investment in terminal capacity requires sustained volume growth to generate expected returns
- Operating ratio still trails top-tier LTL peers, meaning continued execution is needed to fully close the performance gap
- LTL freight volumes remain sensitive to broader industrial production and manufacturing activity cycles
- Turnaround narrative requires sustained multi-year execution to be fully validated by results
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