COST vs DLTR Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Costco's membership fee economics and bulk-buying value proposition against Dollar Tree's fixed-price model and its tariff and margin pressures.
Use this Costco vs Dollar Tree comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
DLTR holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DLTR leads on both 1-year return (+15.97%) and forward P/E quality (16.28x vs 41.72x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while DLTR maintains the higher operating margin (6.21%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COST (+13.94%) than for DLTR (+5.50%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | COST | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 61.5 | 42.5 |
| AI ranki | #156 | #938 |
| Latest closei | $901.35 | $112.79 |
| 1M returni | -6.22% | -12.83% |
| 6M returni | -9.52% | +0.85% |
| 1Y returni | -6.12% | +15.97% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COST | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.47K (-5.3%) started 2025-09-16 | $11.81K (+18.1%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $21.54K (+115.4%) started 2021-09-17 | $12.63K (+26.3%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $82.94K (+729.4%) started 2016-09-19 | $14.06K (+40.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COST | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $419.3B | $24.07B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 47.63 | 15.72 |
| Forward P/Ei | 41.72 | 16.28 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.67 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.42 | 1.53 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,077.31 | $135.32 |
| Target upsidei | +13.94% | +5.50% |
| Metric | COST | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 21.50% | 7.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 45.50% | 197.20% |
| EPS growthi | +45.50% | +197.20% |
| FCF margini | +2.37% | +5.23% |
| Operating margini | 3.67% | 6.21% |
| Profit margini | 3.01% | 8.04% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.15% | 46.03% |
| Return on equityi | 29.15% | 46.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.62% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 27.01% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| Debt/equityi | 60.26 | 223.94 |
| Current ratioi | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.56 | 0.32 |
Over the past year, COST and DLTR have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.20), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COST | DLTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -5.33% | +18.13% |
| CAGRi | -5.34% | +18.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.89% | 41.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.40 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.55 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.63% | 38.53% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.63% | 20.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.73% | 12.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.53% | 16.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.21% | 5.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.96% | 10.41% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +105.50% | +26.29% |
| CAGRi | +15.50% | +4.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.01% | 40.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.77 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.40% | 64.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.63% | 35.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.39% | 28.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.60% | 33.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.45% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.26% | 33.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +597.89% | +40.60% |
| CAGRi | +21.47% | +3.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.05% | 37.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.79 | 0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.13 | 0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.40% | 64.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.63% | 35.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.85% | 22.05% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.33% | 26.99% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.45% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.26% | 33.38% |
| Category | COST | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | COST | DLTR |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Chi… | Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. |
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