KHC vs CAG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Both KHC and CAG are large packaged food companies with iconic but challenged brands navigating the same post-inflation consumer environment. Kraft Heinz carries a heavier historical legacy of brand underinvestment and goodwill impairments, while Conagra is more focused on frozen food convenience trends with a slightly better recent execution track record.
KHC vs CAG compares two packaged food brand portfolios navigating similar industry headwinds — private label competition, post-inflation volume recovery, and brand investment needs — with Kraft Heinz having a more challenging historical reputation to overcome.
KHC holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KHC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-3.89% vs -19.64%), though CAG has the better forward P/E setup (10.37x vs 12.28x for KHC). On fundamentals, CAG is growing revenue faster (3.60%), while KHC maintains the higher operating margin (15.49%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KHC (-2.38%) than for CAG (-10.62%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- See deep value potential in iconic brands (Heinz, Kraft, Oscar Mayer) at a discounted valuation
- Believe current management's brand reinvestment will eventually restore organic growth
- Value KHC's dividend yield while waiting for the brand turnaround to materialize
- Want packaged food exposure with stronger frozen food convenience positioning
- Prefer Conagra's more recent execution track record versus Kraft Heinz's heavier turnaround story
- See value in Conagra's diversified brand portfolio across frozen, grocery, and snacks
| Metric | KHC | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.9 | 25.9 |
| AI ranki | #2514 | #2688 |
| Latest closei | $24.73 | $15.18 |
| 1M returni | -0.36% | -2.19% |
| 6M returni | +13.65% | -1.43% |
| 1Y returni | -3.89% | -19.64% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KHC | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.48K (-5.2%) started 2025-09-18 | $8.1K (-19.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $9.46K (-5.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $6.39K (-36.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $6.5K (-35.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $8.54K (-14.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KHC | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $30.48B | $7.7B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 13.01 | 10.03 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.28 | 10.37 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.88 | 1.33 |
| Analyst targeti | $25.09 | $14.38 |
| Target upsidei | -2.38% | -10.62% |
| Metric | KHC | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.40% | 3.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 13.60% | 39.00% |
| EPS growthi | +13.60% | +39.00% |
| FCF margini | +13.05% | +7.61% |
| Operating margini | 15.49% | 13.77% |
| Profit margini | -13.64% | -16.98% |
| ROIC proxyi | -8.76% | -25.06% |
| Return on equityi | -8.76% | -25.06% |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.23% | 7.61% |
| Payout ratioi | 73.06% | 79.10% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| Debt/equityi | 52.59 | 117.58 |
| Current ratioi | 1.06 | 0.90 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.57 | 0.28 |
Over the past year, KHC and CAG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.68), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KHC | CAG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -5.18% | -19.04% |
| CAGRi | -5.18% | -19.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.55% | 30.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.24 | -0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.32 | -0.96 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.68% | 37.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.46% | 24.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.68% | 17.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.64% | 20.65% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.72% | 6.08% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.68% | 14.09% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -20.12% | -46.28% |
| CAGRi | -4.40% | -11.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.13% | 24.28% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.27 | -0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.36 | -0.77 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.19% | 65.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.10% | 58.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.79% | 25.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.29% | 32.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.55% | 8.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.37% | 14.09% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -58.72% | -39.31% |
| CAGRi | -8.47% | -4.87% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.38% | 26.66% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.35 | -0.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.47 | -0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.07% | 65.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 63.12% | 58.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 47.73% | 20.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 51.03% | 25.99% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.46% | 16.53% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.28% | 27.75% |
| Category | KHC | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Kraft Heinz Company | Conagra Brands, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Packaged Foods | Packaged Foods |
| Core business | Kraft Heinz is one of the world's largest food and beverage companies, owning iconic brands including Heinz ketchup, Kraft cheese, Oscar Mayer, Velveeta, Jell-O, Philadelphia cream cheese, Capri Sun, and many others. | Conagra Brands owns consumer food brands across frozen foods (Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's), grocery (Hunt's, Ro*Tel, Duncan Hines), and snacks (Slim Jim, DAVID Seeds), focused on both branded and private label products. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Kraft Heinz's organic sales growth and volume trends, margin stabilization and improvement, and the pace at which management can reverse years of brand underinvestment through renewed marketing and innovation. | Investors track Conagra's volume recovery after price inflation years, frozen food category performance, margin management, and progress in reinvesting behind its brand portfolio. |
- Irreplaceable portfolio of some of the most recognized food brands in the world
- Global distribution footprint for Heinz condiments provides significant international presence
- Margins have stabilized after significant declines from the 3G Capital/zero-based budgeting years
- Strong frozen food segment positioned in a growing convenience-driven category
- Portfolio diversification across frozen, grocery, and snacks reduces single-category risk
- Active management of both branded and private label businesses provides market insight
- Brand underinvestment during the 3G Capital era created significant market share losses that are slow to recover
- Wrote down goodwill by nearly $16 billion in 2019, reflecting overpriced acquisitions
- Key brands like Kraft mac & cheese and Oscar Mayer face increasing private label and fresh competition
- Consumer volume resistance to elevated price levels has weighed on organic growth
- Debt from historical acquisitions limits financial flexibility
- Frozen food competition from private label and newer entrants pressures pricing power
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