KHC vs MDLZ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Kraft Heinz and Mondelez are both large packaged food companies, but Kraft Heinz is concentrated on North American condiments and shelf-stable staples while Mondelez focuses on global snacking with substantial emerging market exposure.
Kraft Heinz offers a North American-focused brand portfolio working through volume and simplification challenges, while Mondelez offers global snacking exposure with structural emerging market growth potential. Consider whether you prefer Kraft Heinz's domestic turnaround profile or Mondelez's international snacking growth story.
MDLZ holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MDLZ has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-0.03% vs -7.72%), though KHC has the better forward P/E setup (12.28x vs 18.55x for MDLZ). MDLZ leads on both revenue growth (4.10%) and operating margin (21.98%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MDLZ (+10.86%) than for KHC (-2.38%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a portfolio of iconic North American packaged food brands
- Believe ongoing cost efficiency programs will support margin stability
- Value scale in condiments and shelf-stable food categories
- Are comfortable with a turnaround narrative around volume and market share
- Want exposure to global snacking demand across developed and emerging markets
- Believe emerging market growth provides a durable long-term tailwind
- Value pricing power supported by well-known global confectionery brands
- Are comfortable with cocoa cost volatility and currency translation effects
| Metric | KHC | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.5 | 40.6 |
| AI ranki | #2518 | #998 |
| Latest closei | $24.85 | $61.28 |
| 1M returni | -3.42% | -2.11% |
| 6M returni | +2.56% | +5.33% |
| 1Y returni | -7.72% | -0.03% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KHC | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.22K (-7.8%) started 2025-09-04 | $10.06K (+0.6%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.65K (-3.5%) started 2021-09-07 | $12.3K (+23.0%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $6.33K (-36.7%) started 2016-09-06 | $20.8K (+108.0%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KHC | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $30.48B | $79.59B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 13.01 | 22.84 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.28 | 18.55 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.35 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.88 | 2.52 |
| Analyst targeti | $25.09 | $69.13 |
| Target upsidei | -2.38% | +10.86% |
| Metric | KHC | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.40% | 4.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 13.60% | 144.90% |
| EPS growthi | +13.60% | +144.90% |
| FCF margini | +13.05% | +5.68% |
| Operating margini | 15.49% | 21.98% |
| Profit margini | -13.64% | 8.86% |
| ROIC proxyi | -8.76% | 13.34% |
| Return on equityi | -8.76% | 13.34% |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.23% | 3.34% |
| Betai | 0.08 | 0.40 |
| Debt/equityi | 52.59 | 82.64 |
| Current ratioi | 1.06 | 0.60 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.57 | 0.31 |
Over the past year, KHC and MDLZ have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.61), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KHC | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.83% | +0.62% |
| CAGRi | -7.84% | +0.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.60% | 23.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.34 | -0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.46 | -0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.28% | 20.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.03% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.93% | 7.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.91% | 8.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.72% | 4.36% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.68% | 8.13% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -18.49% | +11.84% |
| CAGRi | -4.01% | +2.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.18% | 20.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.25 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.34 | -0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.19% | 30.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.79% | 17.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.55% | 10.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.08% | 12.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.55% | 7.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.37% | 10.63% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -59.80% | +67.79% |
| CAGRi | -8.72% | +5.31% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.42% | 21.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.36 | 0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.48 | 0.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.07% | 30.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 62.94% | 17.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 47.52% | 8.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 50.89% | 10.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.46% | 11.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.28% | 16.44% |
| Category | KHC | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Kraft Heinz Company | Mondelez International, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Packaged Foods | Confectioners |
| Core business | A North American-focused packaged food and condiments company known for iconic brands spanning ketchup, cheese, and processed meals, alongside a smaller international presence. | A global snacking company with a portfolio of biscuit, chocolate, and confectionery brands sold across both developed and emerging markets worldwide. |
| Investor focus | Organic sales volume trends, brand reinvestment spending, and progress on portfolio simplification and cost efficiency initiatives. | Organic revenue growth driven by emerging market snacking demand, cocoa and input cost trends, and pricing power across its global brand portfolio. |
- Portfolio of iconic, long-established brands retains strong household recognition across North America
- Scale in condiments and shelf-stable categories supports efficient manufacturing and distribution
- Ongoing cost efficiency programs have helped support margins amid input cost pressures
- Global snacking portfolio benefits from durable demand for biscuits and chocolate across many geographies
- Meaningful emerging market exposure provides structural growth potential beyond mature developed markets
- Well-known global brands support pricing power in categories with relatively low private label penetration
- Volume trends have been pressured by private label competition and shifting consumer preferences toward fresher food
- Heavy reliance on North American revenue limits exposure to faster-growing international snacking markets
- Brand reinvestment is needed to defend market share against both private label and smaller emerging brands
- Cocoa and other input cost volatility can pressure chocolate segment margins
- Currency translation from its large international footprint can affect reported results
- Faces competition from both global confectionery peers and local snacking brands in emerging markets
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