MDLZ vs HSY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Mondelez and Hershey both compete in chocolate and confectionery, but Mondelez operates a globally diversified snacking portfolio with substantial emerging market exposure, while Hershey remains heavily concentrated on North American chocolate with a smaller salty snacks diversification effort.
Mondelez offers global snacking diversification with emerging market growth exposure, while Hershey offers concentrated North American chocolate category leadership navigating elevated cocoa costs. Consider whether you prefer Mondelez's international diversification or Hershey's domestic category leadership.
HSY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MDLZ has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+2.95% vs -7.90%), though HSY has the better forward P/E setup (18.14x vs 18.55x for MDLZ). HSY leads on both revenue growth (6.60%) and operating margin (23.12%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HSY (+14.79%) than for MDLZ (+10.86%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to global snacking demand across developed and emerging markets
- Believe emerging market growth provides a durable long-term tailwind
- Value pricing power supported by well-known global confectionery brands
- Are comfortable with cocoa cost volatility and currency translation effects
- Want concentrated exposure to North American chocolate category leadership
- Believe the salty snacks portfolio provides useful diversification over time
- Value a long dividend history tied to consistent domestic cash flow generation
- Are comfortable with elevated cocoa cost pressure on near-term margins
| Metric | MDLZ | HSY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.0 | 41.9 |
| AI ranki | #953 | #958 |
| Latest closei | $63.80 | $169.64 |
| 1M returni | +3.84% | +0.71% |
| 3M returni | +5.42% | -2.67% |
| 6M returni | +10.74% | -11.41% |
| 1Y returni | +2.95% | -7.90% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MDLZ | HSY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.46K (+4.6%) started 2025-10-23 | $9.34K (-6.6%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $12.59K (+25.9%) started 2021-10-25 | $11.28K (+12.8%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $22.36K (+123.6%) started 2016-10-24 | $27.4K (+174.0%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MDLZ | HSY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $79.59B | $35.98B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 22.84 | 24.46 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.55 | 18.14 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.35 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.52 | 3.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $69.13 | $205.52 |
| Target upsidei | +10.86% | +14.79% |
| Metric | MDLZ | HSY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.10% | 6.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 144.90% | 631.00% |
| EPS growthi | +144.90% | +631.00% |
| FCF margini | +5.68% | +14.33% |
| Operating margini | 21.98% | 23.12% |
| Profit margini | 8.86% | 12.24% |
| ROIC proxyi | 13.34% | 32.81% |
| Return on equityi | 13.34% | 32.81% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.34% | 3.24% |
| Payout ratioi | 73.53% | 77.10% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Debt/equityi | 82.64 | 129.82 |
| Current ratioi | 0.60 | 1.18 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.31 | 0.51 |
Over the past year, MDLZ and HSY have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.56), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MDLZ | HSY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +4.57% | -6.58% |
| CAGRi | +4.58% | -6.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.95% | 27.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.12 | -0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.17 | -0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.46% | 33.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.13% | 28.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.04% | 15.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.98% | 18.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.36% | 4.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.13% | 10.55% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +15.17% | +2.85% |
| CAGRi | +2.87% | +0.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.38% | 23.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.02 | -0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.03 | -0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.83% | 45.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.32% | 34.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.75% | 20.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.92% | 24.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.27% | 7.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.63% | 10.55% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +81.31% | +118.47% |
| CAGRi | +6.13% | +8.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.17% | 23.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.25 | 0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.83% | 45.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.32% | 34.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.29% | 13.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.53% | 18.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.43% | 16.53% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.44% | 21.95% |
| Category | MDLZ | HSY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Mondelez International, Inc. | The Hershey Company |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Confectioners | Confectioners |
| Core business | A global snacking company with a portfolio of biscuit, chocolate, and confectionery brands sold across both developed and emerging markets worldwide. | A confectionery company known for chocolate and sweets brands, primarily selling to North American consumers alongside a smaller salty snacks portfolio and limited international presence. |
| Investor focus | Organic revenue growth driven by emerging market snacking demand, cocoa and input cost trends, and pricing power across its global brand portfolio. | North American chocolate category volume and pricing trends, cocoa cost exposure, and progress on diversifying into salty snacks. |
- Global snacking portfolio benefits from durable demand for biscuits and chocolate across many geographies
- Meaningful emerging market exposure provides structural growth potential beyond mature developed markets
- Well-known global brands support pricing power in categories with relatively low private label penetration
- Leading position in North American chocolate provides strong brand recognition and retail shelf presence
- Salty snacks portfolio provides some diversification beyond its core chocolate and confectionery business
- Long dividend history reflects consistent cash flow generation from its North American confectionery leadership
- Cocoa and other input cost volatility can pressure chocolate segment margins
- Currency translation from its large international footprint can affect reported results
- Faces competition from both global confectionery peers and local snacking brands in emerging markets
- Elevated cocoa costs have pressured margins and required significant pricing actions in recent periods
- Heavy concentration in North American chocolate limits international diversification relative to global peers
- Faces private label and smaller premium chocolate brand competition in a mature confectionery category
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