HSY vs MKC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Hershey and McCormick are both defensive consumer staples companies, but Hershey is concentrated on North American chocolate and confectionery exposed to volatile cocoa costs, while McCormick spans global spices and seasonings with both consumer and foodservice revenue streams.
Hershey offers concentrated exposure to North American chocolate category leadership navigating cocoa cost swings, while McCormick offers diversified flavor category leadership with both retail and foodservice exposure. Consider whether you prefer Hershey's chocolate category focus or McCormick's broader flavor category diversification.
HSY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HSY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-7.90% vs -29.83%), though MKC has the better forward P/E setup (16.78x vs 18.14x for HSY). On fundamentals, MKC is growing revenue faster (16.70%), while HSY maintains the higher operating margin (23.12%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HSY (+14.79%) than for MKC (+9.55%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want concentrated exposure to North American chocolate category leadership
- Believe the salty snacks portfolio provides useful diversification over time
- Value a long dividend history tied to consistent domestic cash flow generation
- Are comfortable with elevated cocoa cost pressure on near-term margins
- Want exposure to a global flavor category leader in spices and seasonings
- Believe the flavor solutions segment provides useful diversification through foodservice relationships
- Value a long history of dividend growth
- Are comfortable with private label competition in commoditized spice categories
| Metric | HSY | MKC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.9 | 37.4 |
| AI ranki | #958 | #1417 |
| Latest closei | $169.64 | $48.12 |
| 1M returni | +0.71% | -1.98% |
| 3M returni | -2.67% | -3.68% |
| 6M returni | -11.41% | -6.62% |
| 1Y returni | -7.90% | -29.83% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HSY | MKC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.34K (-6.6%) started 2025-10-23 | $7.14K (-28.6%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $11.28K (+12.8%) started 2021-10-25 | $6.9K (-31.0%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $27.4K (+174.0%) started 2016-10-24 | $14.12K (+41.2%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HSY | MKC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $35.98B | $14.88B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 24.46 | 9.21 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.14 | 16.78 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.38 | 2.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $205.52 | $60.62 |
| Target upsidei | +14.79% | +9.55% |
| Metric | HSY | MKC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.60% | 16.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 631.00% | -14.20% |
| EPS growthi | +631.00% | -14.20% |
| FCF margini | +14.33% | +9.67% |
| Operating margini | 23.12% | 17.42% |
| Profit margini | 12.24% | 21.91% |
| ROIC proxyi | 32.81% | 24.73% |
| Return on equityi | 32.81% | 24.73% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.24% | 3.47% |
| Payout ratioi | 77.10% | 34.18% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.10 | 0.63 |
| Debt/equityi | 129.82 | 65.14 |
| Current ratioi | 1.18 | 0.78 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.51 | 0.29 |
Over the past year, HSY and MKC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.46), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HSY | MKC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -6.58% | -28.57% |
| CAGRi | -6.58% | -28.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.60% | 31.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.27 | -1.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.39 | -1.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.30% | 38.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.20% | 32.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.00% | 19.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.49% | 23.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.70% | 8.05% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.55% | 12.18% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +2.85% | -35.94% |
| CAGRi | +0.56% | -8.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.60% | 25.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.05 | -0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.07 | -0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.25% | 54.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.74% | 50.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.39% | 24.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.51% | 28.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.86% | 9.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.55% | 14.96% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +118.47% | +19.58% |
| CAGRi | +8.13% | +1.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.02% | 24.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.26 | 0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.25% | 54.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.74% | 50.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.36% | 16.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.39% | 20.96% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.53% | 10.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.95% | 16.43% |
| Category | HSY | MKC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Hershey Company | McCormick & Company, Incorporated |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Confectioners | Packaged Foods |
| Core business | A confectionery company known for chocolate and sweets brands, primarily selling to North American consumers alongside a smaller salty snacks portfolio and limited international presence. | A global flavor company known for spices, seasonings, and condiments sold to both consumers and foodservice and industrial customers worldwide. |
| Investor focus | North American chocolate category volume and pricing trends, cocoa cost exposure, and progress on diversifying into salty snacks. | Consumer segment volume and pricing trends, flavor solutions segment growth from foodservice and industrial customers, and margin improvement progress. |
- Leading position in North American chocolate provides strong brand recognition and retail shelf presence
- Salty snacks portfolio provides some diversification beyond its core chocolate and confectionery business
- Long dividend history reflects consistent cash flow generation from its North American confectionery leadership
- Leading position in spices and seasonings provides strong brand recognition and category pricing power
- Flavor solutions segment diversifies revenue through relationships with foodservice and packaged food manufacturers
- Long dividend growth history reflects consistent cash flow generation across economic cycles
- Elevated cocoa costs have pressured margins and required significant pricing actions in recent periods
- Heavy concentration in North American chocolate limits international diversification relative to global peers
- Faces private label and smaller premium chocolate brand competition in a mature confectionery category
- Consumer segment volume growth can be pressured by private label competition in commoditized spice categories
- Flavor solutions segment revenue is tied to the health of its foodservice and industrial customer base
- Input cost inflation for raw spice and packaging materials can pressure margins between pricing actions
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