CAG vs SJM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CAG and SJM are mid-size packaged food companies competing for grocery shelf space with established consumer brands, both navigating the post-pandemic challenge of volume recovery after years of price-driven revenue growth. Smucker's Hostess acquisition gives it a significant new category, while Conagra's frozen food portfolio benefits from secular convenience trends.
CAG vs SJM compares two packaged food brand portfolios navigating private label competition and consumer value-seeking behavior, both working to balance pricing and volume in a normalizing grocery environment.
SJM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SJM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+9.68% vs -22.72%), though CAG has the better forward P/E setup (10.37x vs 12.16x for SJM). SJM leads on both revenue growth (5.00%) and operating margin (17.90%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SJM (+6.87%) than for CAG (-10.62%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a broad portfolio of frozen and grocery food brands including Birds Eye and Healthy Choice
- Believe frozen food convenience trends provide a structural tailwind for Conagra's largest segment
- See value in Conagra's ongoing cost discipline and brand investment program
- Want exposure to leading brands in peanut butter, jams, and coffee alongside a growing snack cake business
- Believe the Hostess acquisition expands Smucker's commercial opportunity despite integration complexity
- Value SJM's strong brand positions in fundamental pantry staple categories
| Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 25.8 | 38.1 |
| AI ranki | #2608 | #1311 |
| Latest closei | $14.32 | $121.00 |
| 1M returni | -11.55% | -7.56% |
| 6M returni | -8.32% | +27.05% |
| 1Y returni | -22.72% | +9.68% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.92K (-20.8%) started 2025-09-25 | $11.22K (+12.2%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $5.93K (-40.7%) started 2021-09-27 | $13.01K (+30.1%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $8.09K (-19.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $15.57K (+55.7%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.7B | $14.14B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.03 | 61.84 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.37 | 12.16 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.34 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.33 | 2.30 |
| Analyst targeti | $14.38 | $141.44 |
| Target upsidei | -10.62% | +6.87% |
| Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.60% | 5.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 39.00% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +39.00% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +7.61% | +15.99% |
| Operating margini | 13.77% | 17.90% |
| Profit margini | -16.98% | 2.51% |
| ROIC proxyi | -25.06% | 3.93% |
| Return on equityi | -25.06% | 3.93% |
| Dividend yieldi | 7.61% | 3.39% |
| Payout ratioi | 79.10% | 205.61% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | -0.05 | 0.25 |
| Debt/equityi | 117.58 | 120.68 |
| Current ratioi | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.28 | 0.29 |
Over the past year, CAG and SJM have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.52), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -20.80% | +12.18% |
| CAGRi | -20.82% | +12.20% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.38% | 28.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.77 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.06 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.16% | 22.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.47% | 8.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.05% | 7.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.98% | 9.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.08% | 3.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.09% | 7.98% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -50.16% | +14.13% |
| CAGRi | -13.01% | +2.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.30% | 24.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.64 | 0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.86 | 0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.50% | 39.94% | |
| Current drawdowni | 60.73% | 18.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.02% | 17.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.33% | 21.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.44% | 15.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.09% | 16.08% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -42.53% | +14.74% |
| CAGRi | -5.39% | +1.38% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.67% | 24.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.24 | -0.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.33 | -0.00 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.50% | 39.94% | |
| Current drawdowni | 60.73% | 18.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.36% | 15.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.13% | 18.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.53% | 15.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.75% | 16.08% |
| Category | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Conagra Brands, Inc. | The J.M. Smucker Company |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Packaged Foods | Packaged Foods |
| Core business | Conagra Brands is a large packaged food company owning iconic brands including Birds Eye (frozen vegetables), Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Slim Jim, and many other grocery and frozen food products. | J.M. Smucker owns consumer food brands across coffee (Folgers, Dunkin' at-home), peanut butter (Jif), fruit spreads (Smucker's), and following its acquisition of Hostess, snack cakes and sweet baked goods. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Conagra's organic volume recovery after price-led inflation years, brand investment effectiveness, and the profitability improvement trajectory across its grocery and refrigerated/frozen segments. | Investors track Smucker's revenue growth and margin improvement from the Hostess acquisition integration, coffee category trends, and how the Jif and Smucker's core brands perform versus private label alternatives. |
- Broad portfolio of recognizable frozen and grocery brands provides shelf presence across many grocery categories
- Frozen food segment has structural secular growth as consumers value convenience
- Cost optimization programs have improved operating margins over time
- Number-one or number-two brand positions in core categories including peanut butter (Jif) and jams/jellies (Smucker's)
- Hostess acquisition significantly expands Smucker's addressable market into the large U.S. snack cake segment
- Coffee portfolio through Folgers and licensed Dunkin' provides a large, recurring household penetration
- Volume declines following significant price increases have been more persistent than management expected
- Private label and store brands have gained share in several Conagra categories during consumer value-seeking periods
- Significant debt from acquisition activity constrains financial flexibility
- Coffee commodity prices (arabica and robusta) create raw material cost volatility
- Private label competition is particularly strong in categories like peanut butter and jams
- Hostess integration carries execution risk and increases leverage significantly
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