SJM vs HRL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
J.M. Smucker and Hormel are both diversified packaged food companies, but Smucker is anchored by coffee and pet food brands including its retail coffee business, while Hormel is anchored by branded protein products with growing snacking and international diversification.
J.M. Smucker offers diversification across coffee, pet food, and consumer foods with an actively reshaped portfolio, while Hormel offers a long dividend growth track record anchored by well-known branded protein products. Consider whether you prefer Smucker's category diversification or Hormel's dividend consistency and brand recognition.
SJM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SJM leads on both 1-year return (+12.06%) and forward P/E quality (12.16x vs 13.88x for HRL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. SJM leads on both revenue growth (5.00%) and operating margin (17.90%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HRL (+21.12%) than for SJM (+6.87%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a diversified portfolio spanning coffee, pet food, and consumer foods
- Believe active portfolio reshaping can improve the company's long-term growth mix
- Value strong brand recognition supporting pricing power in coffee
- Are comfortable with integration risk from past portfolio acquisitions
- Want exposure to well-known branded protein products with strong household recognition
- Believe growth in snacking and international segments can complement the core protein business
- Value a long dividend increase streak reflecting consistent shareholder returns
- Are comfortable with protein input cost volatility affecting near-term margins
| Metric | SJM | HRL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 38.3 | 26.6 |
| AI ranki | #1340 | #2548 |
| Latest closei | $126.08 | $21.54 |
| 1M returni | +4.93% | -13.91% |
| 6M returni | +15.71% | -9.80% |
| 1Y returni | +12.06% | -16.06% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SJM | HRL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.3K (+13.0%) started 2025-09-08 | $8.45K (-15.5%) started 2025-09-08 |
| 5Y ago | $13.46K (+34.6%) started 2021-09-09 | $6.4K (-36.0%) started 2021-09-09 |
| 10Y ago | $16.44K (+64.4%) started 2016-09-09 | $9.32K (-6.8%) started 2016-09-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SJM | HRL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $14.14B | $11.87B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 61.84 | 34.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.16 | 13.88 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.34 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.30 | 0.95 |
| Analyst targeti | $141.44 | $26.13 |
| Target upsidei | +6.87% | +21.12% |
| Metric | SJM | HRL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.00% | -2.90% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -5.10% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -5.10% |
| FCF margini | +15.99% | +5.12% |
| Operating margini | 17.90% | 11.06% |
| Profit margini | 2.51% | 2.82% |
| ROIC proxyi | 3.93% | 4.29% |
| Return on equityi | 3.93% | 4.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.39% | 5.42% |
| Betai | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| Debt/equityi | 120.68 | 4.24 |
| Current ratioi | 0.87 | 1.88 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.29 | 0.89 |
Over the past year, SJM and HRL have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SJM | HRL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +12.99% | -15.53% |
| CAGRi | +13.01% | -15.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.94% | 29.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.41 | -0.59 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | -0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.82% | 23.49% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.73% | 18.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.59% | 9.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.38% | 10.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.16% | 10.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.38% | 11.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +18.08% | -43.03% |
| CAGRi | +3.38% | -10.65% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.92% | 24.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | -0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.11 | -0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.94% | 60.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.41% | 56.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.75% | 31.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.12% | 35.54% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.59% | 13.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.08% | 13.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +21.13% | -26.18% |
| CAGRi | +1.94% | -2.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.68% | 23.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.02 | -0.20 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.03 | -0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.94% | 60.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.41% | 56.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.75% | 19.56% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.44% | 25.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.59% | 13.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.08% | 13.30% |
| Category | SJM | HRL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The J.M. Smucker Company | Hormel Foods Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Packaged Foods | Packaged Foods |
| Core business | A packaged food company with a portfolio spanning coffee, pet food, and consumer foods brands, including a retail coffee business and branded snacking products sold primarily in North America. | A packaged food company known for meat and protein-based branded products alongside a growing portfolio of snacking and international foods, sold primarily through retail and foodservice channels. |
| Investor focus | Coffee segment volume and pricing trends, pet food segment performance, and integration progress on past portfolio acquisitions. | Protein input cost trends affecting margins, growth in branded snacking and international segments, and volume trends across its core retail brands. |
- Diversified portfolio spanning coffee, pet food, and consumer foods reduces reliance on any single category
- Strong coffee brand recognition supports pricing power in a category with relatively low private label penetration
- History of portfolio reshaping through acquisitions and divestitures has focused the business on higher-growth categories
- Well-known branded protein products benefit from strong household recognition across generations of consumers
- Diversification into snacking and international foods provides growth avenues beyond core protein categories
- Long dividend increase streak reflects a long-standing commitment to consistent shareholder returns
- Integration of acquired brands carries execution risk and can create near-term margin pressure
- Pet food segment faces competition from both established and emerging brands in a competitive category
- Coffee segment volume can be sensitive to green coffee commodity cost swings passed through via pricing
- Protein input costs can be volatile and directly affect segment margins between pricing adjustments
- Foodservice segment demand is tied to restaurant and institutional food away from home trends
- Faces private label and value brand competition across several of its core packaged meat categories
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