HRL vs TSN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Hormel Foods and Tyson Foods are both major U.S. protein and packaged food companies, but Hormel leans more heavily on branded, higher-margin packaged products while Tyson operates at greater scale across commodity chicken, beef, and pork processing alongside its own prepared foods brands.
Hormel offers a more branded, pricing-power-driven approach to protein products, while Tyson offers scale diversification across multiple commodity protein categories. Consider whether you prefer Hormel's branded stability or Tyson's scale and commodity cycle diversification.
TSN holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TSN leads on both 1-year return (+7.55%) and forward P/E quality (12.37x vs 13.88x for HRL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TSN is growing revenue faster (-0.10%), while HRL maintains the higher operating margin (11.06%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +21.12% for HRL and +24.10% for TSN.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a branded packaged meat and protein products portfolio
- Believe brand strength supports pricing power relative to commodity meat
- Value a long history of consecutive dividend increases
- Are comfortable with input cost volatility across pork and turkey
- Want scale diversification across chicken, beef, and pork processing
- Believe vertical integration supports cost control across commodity cycles
- Value the prepared foods segment as a higher-margin complement to fresh protein
- Are comfortable with beef segment margin sensitivity to cattle supply cycles
| Metric | HRL | TSN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.7 | 38.4 |
| AI ranki | #2416 | #2337 |
| Latest closei | $21.06 | $56.70 |
| 1M returni | +5.72% | +10.40% |
| 3M returni | -16.79% | -1.31% |
| 6M returni | -2.27% | -11.45% |
| 1Y returni | -12.80% | +7.55% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HRL | TSN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.86K (-11.4%) started 2025-10-23 | $10.94K (+9.4%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $6.21K (-37.9%) started 2021-10-25 | $8.48K (-15.2%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $8.56K (-14.4%) started 2016-10-24 | $12.61K (+26.1%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HRL | TSN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $11.87B | $19.49B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 34.79 | 34.20 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.88 | 12.37 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 0.37 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.95 | 0.48 |
| Analyst targeti | $26.13 | $68.75 |
| Target upsidei | +21.12% | +24.10% |
| Metric | HRL | TSN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -2.90% | -0.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -5.10% | 204.10% |
| EPS growthi | -5.10% | +204.10% |
| FCF margini | +5.12% | +2.14% |
| Operating margini | 11.06% | 2.71% |
| Profit margini | 2.82% | 1.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | 4.29% | 3.26% |
| Return on equityi | 4.29% | 3.26% |
| Dividend yieldi | 5.42% | 3.68% |
| Payout ratioi | 188.31% | 125.31% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| Debt/equityi | 4.24 | 44.02 |
| Current ratioi | 1.88 | 1.43 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.89 | 0.48 |
Over the past year, HRL and TSN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.21), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HRL | TSN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -11.40% | +9.44% |
| CAGRi | -11.42% | +9.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.78% | 26.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.41 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.58 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.61% | 26.59% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.56% | 17.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.21% | 9.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.95% | 12.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.25% | 7.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.63% | 13.53% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -44.29% | -24.25% |
| CAGRi | -11.05% | -5.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.97% | 25.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.53 | -0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.70 | -0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.54% | 52.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.79% | 36.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 32.62% | 31.99% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.81% | 34.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.09% | 16.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.30% | 21.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -31.85% | +0.06% |
| CAGRi | -3.76% | +0.01% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.65% | 28.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.23 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.32 | -0.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.54% | 52.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.79% | 36.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.31% | 24.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.84% | 28.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.09% | 16.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.30% | 26.00% |
| Category | HRL | TSN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Hormel Foods Corporation | Tyson Foods, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Packaged Foods | Farm Products |
| Core business | A branded food company known for packaged meat and protein products, including well-known brands sold through retail and foodservice channels in the United States and select international markets. | A large-scale protein producer processing chicken, beef, and pork for retail, foodservice, and international customers, alongside a portfolio of prepared foods brands. |
| Investor focus | Branded volume and pricing trends, input cost movements for pork and turkey, and progress on margin improvement initiatives. | Segment-level margin trends across chicken, beef, and pork given differing commodity cycles, and progress on operational efficiency initiatives. |
- Portfolio of well-known branded packaged meat and protein products supports pricing power relative to commodity meat
- Diversification across retail and foodservice channels balances demand across consumer and restaurant spending
- Long history of consecutive annual dividend increases reflects consistent cash flow generation
- Scale across multiple protein categories provides diversification against any single commodity cycle downturn
- Vertically integrated production model supports cost control across its supply chain
- Prepared foods segment offers a higher-margin complement to its more commodity-driven fresh protein business
- Input costs for pork, turkey, and other proteins can be volatile and pressure margins between pricing actions
- Volume growth in some core categories has been pressured by shifting consumer protein preferences
- Faces competition from both branded peers and private label in packaged meat categories
- Beef segment margins are particularly sensitive to cattle supply cycles and input cost swings
- Commodity protein pricing can be volatile and is influenced by factors outside the company's control
- Faces ongoing labor, animal health, and regulatory considerations inherent to large-scale meat processing
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