DG vs DLTR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
DG (Dollar General) and DLTR (Dollar Tree) are the two dominant dollar store chains serving different retail niches — Dollar General focuses on everyday consumables in rural markets with flexible pricing and the largest store network in America, while Dollar Tree has its unique fixed-price-point model ($1.25) for treasure hunt shopping alongside the challenged Family Dollar acquisition. Both face execution challenges but serve the structural trend of lower-income consumers seeking maximum value.
DG vs DLTR is largest U.S. dollar store network in rural markets executing a back-to-basics recovery (Dollar General's 20,000+ rural stores with consumables focus under returning CEO working to restore same-store sales and margin performance) versus fixed price point retail concept with strategic review of challenged Family Dollar acquisition (Dollar Tree's unique $1.25 price identity with Family Dollar separation potentially unlocking significant value by allowing each banner to operate independently) — rural consumables scale versus fixed-price brand with strategic portfolio simplification.
DG holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DG leads on both 1-year return (+19.46%) and forward P/E quality (14.95x vs 16.28x for DLTR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, DLTR is growing revenue faster (7.00%), while DG maintains the higher operating margin (6.81%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DG (+12.41%) than for DLTR (+5.50%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe Dollar General's back-to-basics execution recovery under returning CEO Todd Vasos will restore same-store sales trends and margins in its rural American store network
- Value Dollar General's consumer staples-like demand characteristics (80% consumables) as providing defensive characteristics relative to more discretionary retailers during economic stress
- See Dollar General's rural store network (often the only retail option in communities it serves) as a durable competitive position that limits competition from Walmart, Target, and other large retailers
- See Family Dollar separation (sale or spinoff) as a significant potential catalyst — DLTR stock may be undervalued because Family Dollar's underperformance obscures the Dollar Tree banner's value; separating the two could release embedded value
- Value the Dollar Tree banner's unique fixed-price-point treasure hunt retail concept as a differentiated format with strong consumer loyalty for party supplies, seasonal, and impulse purchases
- Believe Dollar Tree's value offering in suburban markets provides durable consumer appeal as lower and middle income households seek maximum value
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.5 | 42.0 |
| AI ranki | #845 | #888 |
| Latest closei | $124.84 | $114.07 |
| 1M returni | +1.68% | -13.70% |
| 6M returni | +6.56% | +6.61% |
| 1Y returni | +19.46% | +18.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.14K (+21.4%) started 2025-09-25 | $12.13K (+21.3%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $6.49K (-35.1%) started 2021-09-27 | $13.13K (+31.3%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $21.71K (+117.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $14.26K (+42.6%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $27.11B | $24.07B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 15.94 | 15.72 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.95 | 16.28 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.95 | 1.53 |
| Analyst targeti | $138.14 | $135.32 |
| Target upsidei | +12.41% | +5.50% |
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.20% | 7.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 33.30% | 197.20% |
| EPS growthi | +33.30% | +197.20% |
| FCF margini | +3.98% | +5.23% |
| Operating margini | 6.81% | 6.21% |
| Profit margini | 3.90% | 8.04% |
| ROIC proxyi | 19.69% | 46.03% |
| Return on equityi | 19.69% | 46.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.92% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 30.65% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.23 | 0.67 |
| Debt/equityi | 169.81 | 223.94 |
| Current ratioi | 1.21 | 1.13 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.23 | 0.32 |
Over the past year, DG and DLTR have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.62), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +21.38% | +21.31% |
| CAGRi | +21.41% | +21.35% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.40% | 41.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.88% | 38.53% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.10% | 19.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.12% | 13.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.06% | 16.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.64% | 5.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.56% | 10.41% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -38.93% | +31.31% |
| CAGRi | -9.40% | +5.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.91% | 40.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.26 | 0.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.61% | 64.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.71% | 34.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.14% | 28.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 44.56% | 33.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.15% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.20% | 33.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +93.86% | +42.59% |
| CAGRi | +6.85% | +3.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.52% | 37.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | 0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 0.23 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.61% | 64.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.71% | 34.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.58% | 22.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.82% | 27.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.15% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.20% | 33.38% |
| Category | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Dollar General Corporation | Dollar Tree, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Dollar General is the largest dollar store chain by store count — operating 20,000+ stores primarily in rural and small-town markets across 48 states. Unlike Dollar Tree's fixed-price model, Dollar General offers a wider range of price points focused on everyday essentials (food, household products, personal care, cleaning supplies, tobacco) at prices generally under $10 with a mix of national brands and private label. Dollar General's target customer is the lower-to-middle income consumer looking for value on daily necessities. DG's DG Fresh initiative has expanded refrigerated food offerings. | Dollar Tree operates two store banners: Dollar Tree stores (fixed $1.25 price point, 8,000+ stores offering a curated assortment of party supplies, seasonal items, household goods, health/beauty, and food at a single low price) and Family Dollar stores (multi-price format similar to Dollar General, serving urban and suburban lower-income consumers, acquired by Dollar Tree in 2015 for $8.5B). Dollar Tree is exploring strategic alternatives for Family Dollar, including a potential sale or spinoff after the acquisition proved challenging. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Dollar General's same-store sales growth (driven by transaction count and basket size), new store openings and ROIC, private label penetration, the performance of Project Elevate (store productivity improvements), back-to-basics strategy under CEO Todd Vasos who returned in 2023, and operating margin recovery. | Investors track Dollar Tree banner same-store sales and the fixed price model's ability to maintain value perception after the move from $1.00 to $1.25 price points, Family Dollar's ongoing underperformance and strategic review outcome, store closures and portfolio optimization, and potential upside from separating the two banners into independent companies. |
- Largest dollar store network in rural America with limited retail competition — Dollar General's 20,000+ stores in rural and small-town markets often face no direct competition (no Walmart, Target, or grocery store nearby); this captive customer base reduces competitive pressure significantly
- Consumables focus drives frequent, recurring visits — Dollar General generates approximately 80% of sales from consumables (food, household products, health/beauty); consumables create high-frequency shopping trips (weekly or more) versus discretionary retailers
- Demographic tailwind from lower-income consumer value seeking — Dollar General serves consumers who prioritize price above all other factors; economic pressure on lower-to-middle income households increases the value of Dollar General's offering
- Dollar Tree banner's fixed price point creates unique consumer appeal — $1.25 (formerly $1) fixed pricing creates a treasure hunt shopping experience; consumers know every item is the same low price, encouraging impulse purchases and making it a destination for party supplies, seasonal goods, and stocking stuffers
- Family Dollar sale or spinoff could unlock significant value — Family Dollar has been a drag on Dollar Tree's financial performance and stock since the 2015 acquisition; separating the two banners would allow each to trade on its own merits and likely benefit Dollar Tree's valuation
- Fixed price model provides partial inflation protection — Dollar Tree can respond to inflation by reducing product size or changing suppliers rather than raising prices (in the short term), maintaining the $1.25 price integrity that defines the brand
- Execution challenges and leadership instability — Dollar General replaced its CEO in 2022, experienced a proxy fight from activist investor Ancora, and has faced multiple years of same-store sales disappointment and margin pressure; operational execution has been a concern
- Shoplifting and loss prevention costs — Dollar General stores are often understaffed and located in areas with higher theft rates; shrink (inventory loss to theft and damage) has been a significant earnings headwind
- Labor cost pressures and store staffing challenges — Dollar General's rural store model relies on lean staffing; minimum wage increases and labor availability challenges increase labor costs in the low-margin dollar store model
- Family Dollar persistently underperforms Dollar General in the competitive multi-price discount segment — Family Dollar stores serve similar demographics as Dollar General but with lower productivity per store; 800+ Family Dollar store closures underscore structural challenges
- Dollar Tree's $1.00 to $1.25 price increase created brand confusion — Dollar Tree's identity was built on the $1 price point; the necessary increase to $1.25 (and multi-price items at $1.25, $3, $5) has been confusing for some consumers and created brand perception challenges
- Urban Family Dollar stores face higher theft and security costs — Family Dollar's urban store concentration creates higher shrink losses; loss prevention costs reduce already thin margins
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