COST vs DG Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Costco's membership fee-driven, high-loyalty warehouse model against Dollar General's rural small-format stores and thinner margins.
Use this Costco vs Dollar General comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
DG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DG leads on both 1-year return (+31.61%) and forward P/E quality (14.95x vs 41.72x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while DG maintains the higher operating margin (6.81%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.94% for COST and +12.41% for DG.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | COST | DG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 64.2 | 44.0 |
| AI ranki | #86 | #846 |
| Latest closei | $1,019.26 | $130.52 |
| 1M returni | +10.71% | +9.74% |
| 3M returni | +7.53% | +2.56% |
| 6M returni | +0.28% | +11.55% |
| 1Y returni | +9.83% | +31.61% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COST | DG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.83K (+8.3%) started 2025-11-04 | $13.08K (+30.8%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $21.63K (+116.3%) started 2021-11-04 | $6.48K (-35.2%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $99.42K (+894.2%) started 2016-11-04 | $23.75K (+137.5%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COST | DG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $419.3B | $27.11B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 47.63 | 15.94 |
| Forward P/Ei | 41.72 | 14.95 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.67 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.42 | 0.95 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,077.31 | $138.14 |
| Target upsidei | +13.94% | +12.41% |
| Metric | COST | DG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 21.50% | 5.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 45.50% | 33.30% |
| EPS growthi | +45.50% | +33.30% |
| FCF margini | +2.37% | +3.98% |
| Operating margini | 3.67% | 6.81% |
| Profit margini | 3.01% | 3.90% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.15% | 19.69% |
| Return on equityi | 29.15% | 19.69% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.62% | 1.92% |
| Payout ratioi | 26.69% | 30.65% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.86 | 0.23 |
| Debt/equityi | 60.26 | 169.81 |
| Current ratioi | 1.07 | 1.21 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.56 | 0.23 |
Over the past year, COST and DG have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.24), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COST | DG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +8.35% | +30.82% |
| CAGRi | +8.36% | +30.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.88% | 38.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | 0.78 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 1.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.33% | 34.88% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.86% | 16.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.61% | 15.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.51% | 19.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.21% | 7.64% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.96% | 12.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +106.76% | -38.94% |
| CAGRi | +15.64% | -9.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.97% | 37.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | -0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | -0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.40% | 72.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.86% | 47.42% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.68% | 39.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.80% | 45.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.45% | 32.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.26% | 35.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +739.58% | +112.02% |
| CAGRi | +23.71% | +7.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.08% | 31.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.88 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.25 | 0.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.40% | 72.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.86% | 47.42% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.99% | 22.05% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.45% | 32.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.45% | 32.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.26% | 35.20% |
| Category | COST | DG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | COST | DG |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Chi… | Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. |
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