SFM vs GO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Sprouts Farmers Market and Grocery Outlet both operate differentiated grocery formats, but Sprouts focuses on natural and organic products at a premium positioning, while Grocery Outlet operates an opportunistic buying, deep-discount model through an independent operator network.
Sprouts Farmers Market offers exposure to natural and organic grocery growth with strong comparable sales momentum, while Grocery Outlet offers exposure to a differentiated deep-discount grocery model with resilience during consumer budget pressure. Consider whether you prefer Sprouts' natural and organic positioning or Grocery Outlet's value-oriented discount model.
SFM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. GO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-5.34% vs -55.06%), though SFM has the better forward P/E setup (13.21x vs 17.93x for GO). SFM leads on both revenue growth (4.70%) and operating margin (7.49%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SFM (+20.62%) than for GO (-11.06%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to natural and organic grocery category growth
- Believe smaller store formats support attractive new store unit economics
- Value a long runway for continued store expansion across underpenetrated markets
- Are comfortable with execution risk from continued rapid store growth
- Want exposure to a differentiated deep-discount grocery model
- Believe opportunistic buying provides a durable value proposition for shoppers
- Value the independent operator model aligning local incentives with performance
- Are comfortable with variability from relying on consistent closeout product supply
| Metric | SFM | GO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 37.0 | 23.9 |
| AI ranki | #702 | #3534 |
| Latest closei | $48.00 | $12.93 |
| 1M returni | -25.75% | +14.93% |
| 3M returni | -44.73% | +40.70% |
| 6M returni | -41.36% | +54.85% |
| 1Y returni | -55.06% | -5.34% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SFM | GO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $4.59K (-54.1%) started 2025-10-29 | $9.47K (-5.3%) started 2025-10-30 |
| 5Y ago | $21.68K (+116.8%) started 2021-10-29 | $5.56K (-44.4%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $21.67K (+116.7%) started 2016-10-31 | $4.54K (-54.6%) started 2019-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SFM | GO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.34B | $1.2B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 15.06 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.21 | 17.93 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| Analyst targeti | $95.00 | $10.73 |
| Target upsidei | +20.62% | -11.06% |
| Metric | SFM | GO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.70% | 1.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 1.50% | 13.60% |
| EPS growthi | +1.50% | +13.60% |
| FCF margini | +4.43% | -0.94% |
| Operating margini | 7.49% | 1.78% |
| Profit margini | 5.58% | -8.04% |
| ROIC proxyi | 35.20% | -38.06% |
| Return on equityi | 35.20% | -38.06% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| Debt/equityi | 140.34 | 226.66 |
| Current ratioi | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.37 | 0.22 |
Over the past year, SFM and GO have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.22), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SFM | GO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -54.09% | -5.34% |
| CAGRi | -54.14% | -5.35% | |
| Volatilityi | 54.84% | 53.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.21 | 0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.48 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.09% | 59.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.09% | 9.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.94% | 30.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.83% | 33.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.11% | 27.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.29% | 35.37% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +116.80% | -44.43% |
| CAGRi | +16.74% | -11.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.66% | 49.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | -0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | -0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.26% | 87.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 73.26% | 71.62% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.05% | 47.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.88% | 53.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.11% | 30.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.29% | 35.37% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +116.70% | -54.65% |
| CAGRi | +8.05% | -10.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.97% | 46.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | -0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | -0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.26% | 87.59% | |
| Current drawdowni | 73.26% | 72.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.74% | 42.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.33% | 48.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.11% | 30.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.29% | 35.37% |
| Category | SFM | GO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Grocery Stores | Grocery Stores |
| Core business | A specialty grocery retailer focused on natural and organic products, fresh produce, and healthy lifestyle offerings, operating a growing store base across the United States. | A discount grocery retailer operating an opportunistic buying and extreme value business model, selling closeout and surplus products alongside everyday grocery items through an independent operator store network. |
| Investor focus | Comparable store sales growth, new store unit economics and expansion pace, and margin trends as the store base scales. | Comparable store sales trends, independent operator model execution, and new store growth pace across its discount grocery footprint. |
- Differentiated natural and organic positioning has supported strong comparable store sales growth relative to conventional grocers
- Smaller store format supports attractive unit economics and faster new store payback periods
- Growing store count provides a long runway for continued unit expansion across underpenetrated markets
- Opportunistic buying model allows it to offer deep discounts on name-brand products that attract value-conscious shoppers
- Independent operator store model aligns local store-level incentives with company performance
- Discount positioning has historically shown resilience during periods of consumer budget pressure
- Premium natural and organic positioning can face pressure if conventional grocers expand their own natural offerings
- Continued rapid store expansion carries execution risk around site selection and market saturation
- Faces competition from both specialty natural grocers and conventional supermarkets expanding into natural categories
- Opportunistic buying model depends on consistent availability of closeout and surplus product supply
- Independent operator model can create execution variability across different store locations
- Faces competition from both traditional discount grocers and value-focused conventional supermarkets
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