WM vs GFL Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Waste Management's scale-and-recycling-investment lead against GFL Environmental's faster-growing, more leveraged roll-up strategy.
Use this Waste Management vs GFL Environmental comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
WM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WM leads on both 1-year return (-0.03%) and forward P/E quality (24.09x vs 45.73x for GFL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, GFL is growing revenue faster (16.30%), while WM maintains the higher operating margin (18.99%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +18.33% for WM and +19.43% for GFL.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.7 | 43.3 |
| AI ranki | #442 | #878 |
| Latest closei | $218.09 | $42.61 |
| 1M returni | -2.88% | +1.69% |
| 6M returni | -7.96% | +0.58% |
| 1Y returni | -0.03% | -9.59% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.09K (+0.9%) started 2025-09-15 | $9.2K (-8.0%) started 2025-09-15 |
| 5Y ago | $15.84K (+58.4%) started 2021-09-16 | $11.91K (+19.1%) started 2021-09-14 |
| 10Y ago | $47.86K (+378.6%) started 2016-09-16 | $25.85K (+158.5%) started 2020-03-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $87.8B | $15.78B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.07 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.09 | 45.73 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.15 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.31 | 3.72 |
| Analyst targeti | $259.92 | $52.23 |
| Target upsidei | +18.33% | +19.43% |
| Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.00% | 16.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 8.30% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +8.30% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +9.15% | +4.71% |
| Operating margini | 18.99% | 6.89% |
| Profit margini | 11.12% | -2.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.84% | -2.25% |
| Return on equityi | 29.84% | -2.25% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.72% | 0.15% |
| Payout ratioi | 50.07% | 16.69% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| Debt/equityi | 235.30 | 134.49 |
| Current ratioi | 0.91 | 0.75 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.64 |
Over the past year, WM and GFL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.43), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +0.91% | -8.09% |
| CAGRi | +0.91% | -8.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.15% | 28.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.08 | -0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.11 | -0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.22% | 29.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.53% | 9.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.54% | 11.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.96% | 13.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.46% | 9.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.75% | 13.34% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +49.75% | +18.31% |
| CAGRi | +8.42% | +3.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.06% | 30.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.41 | 0.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.72% | 42.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.53% | 17.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.86% | 17.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.21% | 20.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.03% | 9.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.60% | 17.40% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +305.23% | +156.03% |
| CAGRi | +15.03% | +15.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.75% | 32.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.07% | 42.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.53% | 17.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.02% | 14.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.03% | 18.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.12% | 12.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.97% | 17.40% |
| Category | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | WM | GFL |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Waste Management | Waste Management |
| Core business | Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. | GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. |
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