WM vs GFL Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Waste Management's scale-and-recycling-investment lead against GFL Environmental's faster-growing, more leveraged roll-up strategy.
Use this Waste Management vs GFL Environmental comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
WM holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WM leads on both 1-year return (+13.06%) and forward P/E quality (24.09x vs 48.46x for GFL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, GFL is growing revenue faster (16.30%), while WM maintains the higher operating margin (18.99%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WM (+18.33%) than for GFL (+13.03%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.4 | 44.5 |
| AI ranki | #320 | #793 |
| Latest closei | $230.90 | $45.21 |
| 1M returni | +11.50% | +8.12% |
| 3M returni | +2.02% | +9.46% |
| 6M returni | -0.71% | +17.53% |
| 1Y returni | +13.06% | +3.44% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.69K (+16.9%) started 2025-10-29 | $10.36K (+3.6%) started 2025-10-30 |
| 5Y ago | $16.2K (+62.0%) started 2021-11-01 | $11.02K (+10.2%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $48.48K (+384.8%) started 2016-10-31 | $27.45K (+174.5%) started 2020-03-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $87.8B | $16.44B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.07 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.09 | 48.46 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.15 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.31 | 3.81 |
| Analyst targeti | $259.92 | $51.50 |
| Target upsidei | +18.33% | +13.03% |
| Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.00% | 16.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 8.30% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +8.30% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +9.15% | +4.71% |
| Operating margini | 18.99% | 6.89% |
| Profit margini | 11.12% | -2.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.84% | -2.25% |
| Return on equityi | 29.84% | -2.25% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.72% | 0.15% |
| Payout ratioi | 48.03% | 16.05% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 235.30 | 134.49 |
| Current ratioi | 0.91 | 0.75 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.64 |
Over the past year, WM and GFL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +16.89% | +3.44% |
| CAGRi | +16.92% | +3.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.14% | 29.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.63 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.95 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.10% | 27.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.33% | 2.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.30% | 10.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.05% | 12.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.52% | 9.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.03% | 13.34% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +53.18% | +9.46% |
| CAGRi | +8.92% | +1.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.33% | 30.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.44 | 0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.72% | 42.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.33% | 12.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.12% | 17.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.50% | 20.54% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.03% | 9.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.60% | 17.40% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +310.41% | +171.76% |
| CAGRi | +15.17% | +16.20% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.91% | 32.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.84 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.07% | 42.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.33% | 12.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.15% | 14.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.18% | 18.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.12% | 12.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.97% | 17.40% |
| Category | WM | GFL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | WM | GFL |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Waste Management | Waste Management |
| Core business | Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. | GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. |
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on WM and GFL. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside WM and GFL, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.