TMUS vs VZ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
T-Mobile and Verizon represent the growth and value ends of the US wireless market. T-Mobile is the subscriber growth engine — taking market share consistently and building a 5G network that is outperforming Verizon in independent speed tests. Verizon is the more income-oriented carrier with a premium brand and expanding broadband strategy, but has been on the wrong end of the subscriber gain/loss equation for several years.
T-Mobile is the better growth investment for investors who believe its 5G network advantage and Un-carrier value proposition will continue taking wireless share; Verizon suits income investors who want maximum dividend yield and believe the network quality premium will sustain in the long run.
TMUS holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VZ leads on both 1-year return (+9.32%) and forward P/E quality (9.49x vs 12.56x for TMUS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. TMUS leads on both revenue growth (7.90%) and operating margin (25.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TMUS (+34.19%) than for VZ (+2.91%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the fastest-growing US wireless carrier with the leading 5G mid-band coverage footprint
- believe Sprint synergies and fixed wireless broadband expansion will sustain free cash flow compounding
- prefer growth over near-term yield — TMUS has historically reinvested rather than paying high dividends
- value management's track record of consistently delivering against ambitious operational targets
- prioritize maximum dividend yield from the US's largest wireless carrier
- believe Verizon's network quality premium will retain high-value subscribers despite share losses
- see value in the Frontier acquisition as a long-term broadband expansion catalyst
- prefer the stability of an income-oriented telecom over a faster-growing but less yield-focused carrier
| Metric | TMUS | VZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.0 | 39.5 |
| AI ranki | #486 | #1237 |
| Latest closei | $166.45 | $48.33 |
| 1M returni | -8.92% | -0.43% |
| 6M returni | -19.43% | -2.32% |
| 1Y returni | -30.49% | +9.32% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TMUS | VZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.97K (-30.3%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.07K (+10.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $13.85K (+38.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $14.63K (+46.3%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $37.89K (+278.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $26.48K (+164.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TMUS | VZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $194.55B | $208.15B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.97 | 13.05 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.56 | 9.49 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.38 | 1.36 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.39 | 2.89 |
| Analyst targeti | $243.38 | $51.56 |
| Target upsidei | +34.19% | +2.91% |
| Metric | TMUS | VZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.90% | -0.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 5.30% | -22.00% |
| EPS growthi | +5.30% | -22.00% |
| FCF margini | +12.30% | +12.58% |
| Operating margini | 25.22% | 23.00% |
| Profit margini | 11.46% | 11.64% |
| ROIC proxyi | 17.99% | 15.84% |
| Return on equityi | 17.99% | 15.84% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.30% | 5.73% |
| Payout ratioi | 41.21% | 72.79% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| Debt/equityi | 214.03 | 184.08 |
| Current ratioi | 0.92 | 0.60 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.58 | 0.46 |
Over the past year, TMUS and VZ have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.58), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TMUS | VZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -30.31% | +10.67% |
| CAGRi | -30.33% | +10.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.99% | 25.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.21 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.57 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.50% | 18.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.50% | 6.06% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.95% | 6.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.38% | 8.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.75% | 5.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.63% | 9.60% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +35.49% | +12.55% |
| CAGRi | +6.27% | +2.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.39% | 22.54% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | 0.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.99% | 38.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.99% | 6.06% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.96% | 14.32% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.08% | 17.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.22% | 7.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.63% | 12.88% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +270.59% | +48.92% |
| CAGRi | +14.00% | +4.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.60% | 20.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 0.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.99% | 41.21% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.99% | 6.06% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.66% | 11.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.12% | 15.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.22% | 7.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.58% | 12.88% |
| Category | TMUS | VZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | T-Mobile US, Inc. | Verizon Communications Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Telecom Services | Telecom Services |
| Core business | T-Mobile is the US wireless market leader in postpaid subscriber additions, having executed a dramatic market share gain through the Sprint merger (2020) and aggressive 'Un-carrier' pricing and value propositions. Its 5G network coverage — built on the 2.5 GHz mid-band spectrum acquired with Sprint — is widely regarded as the most comprehensive and highest-performing in the US. T-Mobile is now expanding into broadband (fixed wireless access), enterprise wireless, and international via partnerships. | Verizon is the US's largest wireless carrier by total connections, with a network quality reputation built over decades supporting premium pricing. It is executing a broadband expansion strategy through Fios fiber in the Northeast, fixed wireless access (FWA) via its C-band 5G spectrum, and the pending Frontier Communications acquisition to expand its national fiber footprint significantly. |
| Investor focus | Investors track postpaid phone net adds (T-Mobile has led the industry for several consecutive years), average revenue per user (ARPU) expansion as it moves up-market, fixed wireless access broadband additions, and Sprint merger synergy delivery. | Investors track postpaid phone net adds and churn trends, ARPU, fixed wireless access broadband additions, and the Frontier acquisition integration impact on fiber revenue and debt. |
- Industry-leading 5G mid-band coverage giving T-Mobile a meaningful network performance advantage
- Consistent #1 postpaid phone net adds across multiple years demonstrating durable market share gains
- Sprint merger synergies exceeded original targets, delivering higher-than-expected free cash flow
- Premium network quality reputation retains high-value postpaid customers who accept higher ARPU
- C-band 5G spectrum provides fixed wireless competitive positioning in markets without fiber
- Frontier acquisition will expand national fiber footprint to 25M+ locations
- Market share gains may slow as the low-hanging fruit of disaffected AT&T and Verizon customers has been captured
- Fixed wireless broadband market share could face competition as Verizon and AT&T expand fiber
- Founder CEO Mike Sievert faces the challenge of sustaining growth after the transformative Sprint integration
- Consistent postpaid phone net add losses to T-Mobile for multiple years
- High dividend payout ratio constraining reinvestment capacity
- Frontier acquisition adds near-term debt and integration execution risk
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