SPCX vs ASTS: SpaceX vs AST SpaceMobile Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX Starlink is the world's dominant LEO satellite broadband network serving millions of subscribers with physical terminals, while AST SpaceMobile is developing a competing network aimed at connecting standard smartphones directly to satellites through mobile operator partnerships. Starlink has massive scale advantage; ASTS has a different technology approach targeting unserved cellular users.
SPCX vs ASTS is the established dominant LEO broadband player versus a startup with a differentiated direct-to-cell technology targeting mobile operator distribution — SpaceX wins if terminal-based broadband dominates; ASTS wins if direct-to-device connectivity becomes the standard approach and MNO partnerships scale.
SPCX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPCX leads on both 3-month return (+13.36%) and forward P/E quality (87.68x vs -46.43x for ASTS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, ASTS is growing revenue faster (2626.60%), while SPCX maintains the higher operating margin (-1.80%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for ASTS (+32.99%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want exposure to the world's proven, scaled LEO broadband network with millions of subscribers
- believe Starlink will grow into enterprise, aviation, maritime, and government broadband markets
- prefer a more de-risked satellite broadband technology with operational history
- want the commercial space operator with the lowest launch costs via Falcon 9 reusability
- believe direct-to-device satellite technology will connect billions of mobile users without special hardware
- want exposure to MNO partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone as distribution channels
- are comfortable with pre-commercial execution risk and heavy capital requirements
- prefer a smaller-cap, higher-risk bet on a technology that could serve markets Starlink cannot
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 32.3 | 55.3 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #194 |
| Latest closei | $148.62 | $44.46 |
| 1M returni | +3.58% | -24.35% |
| 3M returni | +13.36% | -19.18% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $4.97K (-50.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $42.96K (+329.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $45.51K (+355.1%) started 2019-11-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.85T | $23.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 87.68 | -46.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 160.10 | 166.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.32 | $79.61 |
| Target upsidei | +58.00% | +32.99% |
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 91.90% | 2626.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | N/A | -1560.79% |
| Operating margini | -1.80% | -544.63% |
| Profit margini | -35.66% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | -45.62% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | -45.62% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | N/A | 2.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 31.21 | 124.86 |
| Current ratioi | 5.12 | 13.05 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.95 | 12.39 |
Over the past year, SPCX and ASTS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.41), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.66% | -50.32% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | -50.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 108.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | -0.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | -0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 68.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 66.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 32.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 37.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 17.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 30.52% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +329.57% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +33.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 109.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 1.27 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 85.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 66.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 42.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 48.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +355.07% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +24.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 100.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.64 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 1.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 91.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 66.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 43.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 52.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% |
| Category | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Technology |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | SpaceX's Starlink is the world's largest LEO broadband network with 7,000+ satellites providing high-speed internet directly to homes, businesses, ships, and aircraft via Starlink terminals. Starlink serves millions of subscribers across 100+ countries. | AST SpaceMobile is building a LEO broadband satellite network designed to connect directly to standard smartphones — no special terminal required. Unlike Starlink, ASTS aims to provide coverage through existing cellular providers (AT&T, Verizon, Rakuten) using their spectrum. |
| Investor focus | Starlink subscriber count, ARPU, enterprise and government contracts, maritime and aviation market expansion, and Starship's ability to increase satellite deployment speed and capacity. | BlueBird satellite deployment schedule, MNO (mobile network operator) commercial agreements, direct-to-device coverage area, and path to break-even with commercial satellite fleet. |
- 7,000+ satellites and millions of active subscribers make Starlink the most proven and scaled LEO broadband network
- SpaceX controls its own launch costs through Falcon 9 reusability, giving Starlink a significant deployment cost advantage
- Starlink terminals and phased-array antennas are manufactured at scale, improving economics as volume grows
- Direct-to-device technology could serve the 5 billion mobile phone users in coverage gaps without requiring a Starlink terminal
- Partnerships with major MNOs (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone) provide a ready distribution channel and spectrum access
- Addressable market includes billions of people in areas with no cellular or broadband access
- Spectrum and orbital slot competition from OneWeb, Amazon Kuiper, and other LEO constellations
- Starlink ARPU may face pressure as consumer broadband becomes more competitive
- Regulatory complexity of operating in every country creates ongoing geopolitical risk
- Satellite manufacturing and launch costs are extremely high relative to ASTS's current financial resources
- MNO revenue sharing arrangements may reduce ASTS's economics significantly
- SpaceX's Starlink is working on its own direct-to-cell capability, creating a well-capitalized competitor
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