LIVE
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) · Aerospace & Defense
$138.69
-13.83% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · Technology
$69.71
-15.41% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
SPCX
2
ASTS
0
Comparison scoreboard
SPCX LEADS 2/5AI Score
SPCX N/A
ASTS 60.7
1Y Return
SPCX N/A
ASTS +45.65%
Fwd P/E
SPCX ✓159.99
ASTS -339.72
Target Up.
SPCX ✓+74.67%
ASTS +16.87%
Op. Margin
SPCX N/A
ASTS N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
SPCX vs ASTS: SpaceX vs AST SpaceMobile Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX Starlink is the world's dominant LEO satellite broadband network serving millions of subscribers with physical terminals, while AST SpaceMobile is developing a competing network aimed at connecting standard smartphones directly to satellites through mobile operator partnerships. Starlink has massive scale advantage; ASTS has a different technology approach targeting unserved cellular users.
SPCX vs ASTS is the established dominant LEO broadband player versus a startup with a differentiated direct-to-cell technology targeting mobile operator distribution — SpaceX wins if terminal-based broadband dominates; ASTS wins if direct-to-device connectivity becomes the standard approach and MNO partnerships scale.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
SPCX holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+74.67%) than for ASTS (+16.87%).
Normalized 1Y performance
SPCX
ASTS
Recent returns
SPCX
ASTS
Analyst price targets & sentiment
SPCX · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$62.00
analyst high$800.00
analyst mean$242.22
current price$138.69
+74.7% upside to analyst mean
ASTS · 9 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$41.20
analyst high$108.00
analyst mean$81.47
current price$69.71
+16.9% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SPCX may suit investors who:
- →want exposure to the world's proven, scaled LEO broadband network with millions of subscribers
- →believe Starlink will grow into enterprise, aviation, maritime, and government broadband markets
- →prefer a more de-risked satellite broadband technology with operational history
- →want the commercial space operator with the lowest launch costs via Falcon 9 reusability
ASTS may suit investors who:
- →believe direct-to-device satellite technology will connect billions of mobile users without special hardware
- →want exposure to MNO partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone as distribution channels
- →are comfortable with pre-commercial execution risk and heavy capital requirements
- →prefer a smaller-cap, higher-risk bet on a technology that could serve markets Starlink cannot
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | N/A | 60.7 |
| AI rank | N/A | #193 |
| Latest close | $138.69 | $69.71 |
| 1M return | -13.83% | -15.41% |
| 6M return | N/A | -29.15% |
| 1Y return | N/A | +45.65% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $14.57K (+45.7%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $59.08K (+490.8%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $71.35K (+613.5%) started 2019-11-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.83T | $27.06B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 159.99 | -339.72 |
| Price/Sales | 94.65 | 318.55 |
| EV/Revenue | 42.52 | 244.10 |
| Analyst target | $242.22 | $81.47 |
| Target upside | +74.67% | +16.87% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 15.40% | 1952.20% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | N/A | -1663.33% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | -45.00% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | -37.75% |
| Return on equity | N/A | -37.75% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 5.79 | 2.68 |
| Debt/equity | 73.60 | 112.42 |
| Current ratio | 1.22 | 18.47 |
| Quick ratio | 1.09 | 17.91 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
ASTS max drawdown50.70%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
ASTS max wkly drop25.44%
5Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
ASTS max drawdown85.57%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
ASTS max wkly drop33.07%
10Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
ASTS max drawdown91.07%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
ASTS max wkly drop33.07%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -13.83% | +45.65% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +45.69% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.84 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 50.70% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 15.53% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 25.44% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -13.83% | +490.76% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +42.66% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 85.57% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 33.07% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -13.83% | +613.51% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +34.09% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 91.07% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 33.07% |
Business comparison
| Category | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Sector | Aerospace & Defense | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | SpaceX's Starlink is the world's largest LEO broadband network with 7,000+ satellites providing high-speed internet directly to homes, businesses, ships, and aircraft via Starlink terminals. Starlink serves millions of subscribers across 100+ countries. | AST SpaceMobile is building a LEO broadband satellite network designed to connect directly to standard smartphones — no special terminal required. Unlike Starlink, ASTS aims to provide coverage through existing cellular providers (AT&T, Verizon, Rakuten) using their spectrum. |
| Investor focus | Starlink subscriber count, ARPU, enterprise and government contracts, maritime and aviation market expansion, and Starship's ability to increase satellite deployment speed and capacity. | BlueBird satellite deployment schedule, MNO (mobile network operator) commercial agreements, direct-to-device coverage area, and path to break-even with commercial satellite fleet. |
SPCX strengths
- →7,000+ satellites and millions of active subscribers make Starlink the most proven and scaled LEO broadband network
- →SpaceX controls its own launch costs through Falcon 9 reusability, giving Starlink a significant deployment cost advantage
- →Starlink terminals and phased-array antennas are manufactured at scale, improving economics as volume grows
ASTS strengths
- →Direct-to-device technology could serve the 5 billion mobile phone users in coverage gaps without requiring a Starlink terminal
- →Partnerships with major MNOs (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone) provide a ready distribution channel and spectrum access
- →Addressable market includes billions of people in areas with no cellular or broadband access
Risks to watch — SPCX
- →Spectrum and orbital slot competition from OneWeb, Amazon Kuiper, and other LEO constellations
- →Starlink ARPU may face pressure as consumer broadband becomes more competitive
- →Regulatory complexity of operating in every country creates ongoing geopolitical risk
Risks to watch — ASTS
- →Satellite manufacturing and launch costs are extremely high relative to ASTS's current financial resources
- →MNO revenue sharing arrangements may reduce ASTS's economics significantly
- →SpaceX's Starlink is working on its own direct-to-cell capability, creating a well-capitalized competitor
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