RKLB vs ASTS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RKLB (Rocket Lab) is a more operationally mature space company with established revenue from satellite launch and components, while ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is an earlier-stage company with potentially transformative but technically and financially unproven direct-to-smartphone satellite broadband ambitions. Both are speculative growth bets on commercial space.
RKLB vs ASTS compares two commercial space investment theses: Rocket Lab's more diversified and operationally proven space services business versus AST SpaceMobile's transformative but technically complex direct-to-phone satellite broadband opportunity.
RKLB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ASTS has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+52.25% vs +41.06%), though RKLB has the better forward P/E setup (1384.99x vs -46.43x for ASTS). On fundamentals, ASTS is growing revenue faster (2626.60%), while RKLB maintains the higher operating margin (-24.57%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RKLB (+75.91%) than for ASTS (+32.99%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want commercial space exposure through a diversified, operationally proven launch and space systems company
- Value Rocket Lab's track record of consistent technical execution in commercial space
- See Neutron as a meaningful medium-term growth catalyst while Electron and Space Systems sustain revenue
- Want high-risk, high-reward exposure to direct-to-smartphone satellite broadband
- Believe AST's MNO partnerships validate the commercial model for space-based cellular coverage
- Are comfortable with significant technology, execution, and capital risk in exchange for potentially transformative upside
| Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 64.7 | 70.6 |
| AI ranki | #87 | #40 |
| Latest closei | $67.82 | $62.71 |
| 1M returni | -14.33% | -6.50% |
| 6M returni | -5.71% | -33.35% |
| 1Y returni | +41.06% | +52.25% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.37K (+43.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $15.13K (+51.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $45.79K (+357.9%) started 2021-09-20 | $54.29K (+442.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $69.6K (+596.0%) started 2020-11-24 | $64.19K (+541.9%) started 2019-11-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $40.35B | $23.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 1384.99 | -46.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 45.83 | 166.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $111.00 | $79.61 |
| Target upsidei | +75.91% | +32.99% |
| Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 62.00% | 2626.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -32.76% | -1560.79% |
| Operating margini | -24.57% | -544.63% |
| Profit margini | -21.51% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.92% | -45.62% |
| Return on equityi | -7.92% | -45.62% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.63 | 2.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 3.83 | 124.86 |
| Current ratioi | 5.48 | 13.05 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.80 | 12.39 |
Over the past year, RKLB and ASTS have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.76), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +43.75% | +51.33% |
| CAGRi | +43.80% | +51.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 93.64% | 111.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.80 | 0.88 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.25 | 1.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.99% | 60.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.86% | 52.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.49% | 29.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.44% | 34.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.70% | 17.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.27% | 25.54% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +357.93% | +442.94% |
| CAGRi | +35.62% | +40.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 78.94% | 109.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.72 | 0.78 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.14 | 1.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.32% | 85.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.86% | 52.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.35% | 41.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.34% | 47.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.11% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +596.02% | +541.86% |
| CAGRi | +39.61% | +31.03% | |
| Volatilityi | 78.65% | 100.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | 0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.22 | 1.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.96% | 91.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.86% | 52.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.67% | 43.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.93% | 52.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.60% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% |
| Category | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Technology |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | Rocket Lab operates the Electron small satellite launcher and Space Systems component and spacecraft business, with the Neutron medium-lift rocket in development, serving commercial and government satellite operators globally. | AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based broadband cellular network using very large satellites (BlueBird constellation) that connect directly to standard smartphones, aiming to eliminate mobile connectivity dead zones globally without specialized hardware. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Electron launch cadence and revenue, Space Systems component revenue growth, and Neutron rocket development milestones as the company builds toward medium-lift market entry. | Investors track AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellite constellation deployment, commercial service launch with MNO (mobile network operator) partners, and revenue ramp from mobile operators paying for access to AST's space-based coverage. |
- Established launch track record with Electron as one of the world's most-launched small rockets
- Diversified revenue from both launch services and space systems components
- Management credibility from consistently achieving technical milestones in commercial space
- If successful, direct-to-phone satellite broadband addresses a genuinely large global coverage gap affecting billions of people
- Partnerships with major mobile operators (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten) validate the commercial concept
- First mover advantage in large-LEO direct-to-standard-phone satellite service
- Neutron rocket development represents a significant capital investment and technology challenge
- Small satellite market competition remains intense
- Profitability timeline extends as Neutron investment is front-loaded
- Technology and regulatory complexity for deploying large LEO satellites for direct cell service is enormous
- Significant capital required for full constellation build-out before commercial revenue scales
- Competes with SpaceX Starlink's direct-to-cell product and other emerging satellite-to-phone solutions
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.