TSLA vs SPCX: Tesla vs SpaceX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Tesla is a mature EV and energy company with AI/robotics optionality, while SpaceX is a newly public space platform with Starlink's recurring broadband revenue. Both are Elon Musk-led companies trading at premium valuations. Tesla has proven manufacturing and revenue at scale; SpaceX has dominant launch economics and Starlink's fast-growing subscriber base.
Use this TSLA vs SPCX comparison to evaluate two Musk-led companies with very different business models. Tesla bets on EV, autonomy, and robotics; SpaceX bets on launch dominance and satellite broadband. Both require sustained execution to justify their valuations.
SPCX holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. On fundamentals, SPCX is growing revenue faster (91.90%), while TSLA maintains the higher operating margin (1.41%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for TSLA (+11.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe autonomous driving (FSD/robotaxi) will be the largest value creator in the next decade
- Want exposure to EV manufacturing scale, energy storage, and the Optimus robotics program
- Prefer a company with proven revenue at scale and an established public market track record
- Are comfortable with auto industry cyclicality and intensifying EV competition
- Want direct exposure to the commercial space economy and Starlink's broadband growth
- Believe space launch and satellite connectivity are more durable monopolies than EV manufacturing
- Are willing to accept post-IPO valuation risk for access to a category-defining space platform
- Prefer a business with less direct competition and higher barriers to entry than the EV market
| Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 70.3 | N/A |
| AI ranki | #38 | N/A |
| Latest closei | $372.11 | $148.68 |
| 1M returni | +7.60% | +6.48% |
| 6M returni | +2.84% | N/A |
| 1Y returni | -15.96% | N/A |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.79K (-12.1%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.24K (-7.6%) started 2026-06-12 |
| 5Y ago | $14.11K (+41.1%) started 2021-09-27 | $9.24K (-7.6%) started 2026-06-12 |
| 10Y ago | $267.08K (+2570.8%) started 2016-09-26 | $9.24K (-7.6%) started 2026-06-12 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.38T | $1.85T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 322.92 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 161.56 | 87.68 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.03 | 160.10 |
| Analyst targeti | $390.09 | $222.32 |
| Target upsidei | +11.85% | +58.00% |
| Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.50% | 91.90% |
| Earnings growthi | -3.00% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -3.00% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +4.67% | N/A |
| Operating margini | 1.41% | -1.80% |
| Profit margini | 3.67% | -35.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 4.67% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 4.67% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.83 | N/A |
| Debt/equityi | 18.37 | 31.21 |
| Current ratioi | 1.94 | 5.12 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.35 | 4.95 |
Over the past year, TSLA and SPCX have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.20), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -12.11% | -7.62% |
| CAGRi | -12.13% | -24.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.95% | 87.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.15 | 0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.20 | 0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.10% | 48.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.04% | 29.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.39% | 31.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.91% | 33.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.52% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.24% | 26.89% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +41.06% | -7.62% |
| CAGRi | +7.13% | -24.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.85% | 87.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.50 | 0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 48.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.04% | 29.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.03% | 31.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.08% | 33.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.43% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.20% | 26.89% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2570.77% | -7.62% |
| CAGRi | +38.90% | -24.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.56% | 87.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.17 | 0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 48.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.04% | 29.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.44% | 31.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.73% | 33.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.06% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 43.05% | 26.89% |
| Category | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Tesla, Inc. | SpaceX |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Industrials |
| Industry | Auto Manufacturers | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Electric vehicle manufacturer, energy storage provider, autonomous driving developer (FSD), and AI/robotics company (Optimus humanoid robot, Dojo supercomputer). | Vertically integrated space company operating reusable Falcon 9 and Starship launch vehicles, Starlink satellite broadband constellation, and Starshield government services. |
| Investor focus | Vehicle delivery growth, FSD autonomy progress, energy storage margins, Optimus robotics optionality, and robotaxi timeline. | Starlink subscriber growth, Starship development milestones, government launch contracts, and path to profitability across the combined business. |
- Global EV brand with vertically integrated manufacturing, battery production, and charging network
- Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and real-world driving data create a durable AI autonomy moat
- Optimus humanoid robot and energy storage represent massive TAM optionality beyond core auto business
- Dominant global launch market share with lowest cost-per-kilogram to orbit via reusable rockets
- Starlink satellite broadband with millions of subscribers and growing enterprise and government revenue
- Starship opens new markets in heavy-lift deployment, point-to-point transport, and deep space missions
- EV price competition and margin pressure from Chinese automakers and legacy OEMs
- Robotaxi and FSD regulatory approval timelines remain uncertain
- Key-person risk and management attention split across Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and other ventures
- Post-IPO valuation at $1.77 trillion prices in decades of flawless execution
- Starship development carries technical and timeline risk that could weigh on sentiment
- Key-person risk tied to Elon Musk's involvement across multiple companies
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