LIVE
TSLA
Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$379.71
-13.77% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
SPCX
SpaceX · Aerospace & Defense
$153.23
N/A this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
TSLA
1
SPCX
1
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
TSLA 69.5
SPCX N/A
1Y Return
TSLA +15.92%
SPCX N/A
Fwd P/E
TSLA ✓160.20
SPCX 779.12
Target Up.
TSLA +5.01%
SPCX ✓+22.56%
Op. Margin
TSLA 4.20%
SPCX N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/27/2026
Quick take
TSLA vs SPCX: Tesla vs SpaceX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Tesla is a mature EV and energy company with AI/robotics optionality, while SpaceX is a newly public space platform with Starlink's recurring broadband revenue. Both are Elon Musk-led companies trading at premium valuations. Tesla has proven manufacturing and revenue at scale; SpaceX has dominant launch economics and Starlink's fast-growing subscriber base.
Use this TSLA vs SPCX comparison to evaluate two Musk-led companies with very different business models. Tesla bets on EV, autonomy, and robotics; SpaceX bets on launch dominance and satellite broadband. Both require sustained execution to justify their valuations.
Live analysis · updated 6/27/2026
TSLA and SPCX are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+22.56%) than for TSLA (+5.01%).
Normalized 1Y performance
TSLA
SPCX
Recent returns
TSLA
SPCX
Analyst price targets & sentiment
TSLA
Price target range
analyst mean$420.55
current price$379.71
+5.0% upside to analyst mean
SPCX · 5 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$62.00
analyst high$310.00
analyst mean$187.80
current price$153.23
+22.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
TSLA may suit investors who:
- →Believe autonomous driving (FSD/robotaxi) will be the largest value creator in the next decade
- →Want exposure to EV manufacturing scale, energy storage, and the Optimus robotics program
- →Prefer a company with proven revenue at scale and an established public market track record
- →Are comfortable with auto industry cyclicality and intensifying EV competition
SPCX may suit investors who:
- →Want direct exposure to the commercial space economy and Starlink's broadband growth
- →Believe space launch and satellite connectivity are more durable monopolies than EV manufacturing
- →Are willing to accept post-IPO valuation risk for access to a category-defining space platform
- →Prefer a business with less direct competition and higher barriers to entry than the EV market
Performance & AI score
| Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 69.5 | N/A |
| AI rank | #38 | N/A |
| Latest close | $379.71 | $153.23 |
| 1M return | -13.77% | N/A |
| 6M return | -21.77% | N/A |
| 1Y return | +15.92% | N/A |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.66K (+16.6%) started 2025-06-26 | $9.52K (-4.8%) started 2026-06-12 |
| 5Y ago | $16.54K (+65.4%) started 2021-06-28 | $9.52K (-4.8%) started 2026-06-12 |
| 10Y ago | $286.86K (+2768.6%) started 2016-06-27 | $9.52K (-4.8%) started 2026-06-12 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.5T | $2.02T |
| Trailing P/E | 370.82 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 160.20 | 779.12 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 104.59 |
| EV/Revenue | 15.08 | 46.75 |
| Analyst target | $420.55 | $187.80 |
| Target upside | +5.01% | +22.56% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 15.80% | 15.40% |
| Earnings growth | 8.30% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +8.30% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +5.37% | N/A |
| Operating margin | 4.20% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 3.95% | -45.00% |
| ROIC proxy | 4.90% | N/A |
| Return on equity | 4.90% | N/A |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.80 | N/A |
| Debt/equity | 18.74 | 73.60 |
| Current ratio | 2.04 | 1.22 |
| Quick ratio | 1.43 | 1.09 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
TSLA max drawdown29.93%
SPCX max drawdown27.62%
TSLA max wkly drop10.28%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
5Y risk snapshot
TSLA max drawdown73.63%
SPCX max drawdown27.62%
TSLA max wkly drop27.20%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
10Y risk snapshot
TSLA max drawdown73.63%
SPCX max drawdown27.62%
TSLA max wkly drop43.05%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +16.55% | -4.80% |
| CAGR | +16.58% | -72.26% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.47 | N/A | |
| Max drawdown | 29.93% | 27.62% | |
| Max daily drop | 8.20% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly drop | 10.28% | 26.89% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +65.40% | -4.80% |
| CAGR | +10.60% | -72.26% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.39 | N/A | |
| Max drawdown | 73.63% | 27.62% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.43% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly drop | 27.20% | 26.89% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +2768.62% | -4.80% |
| CAGR | +39.90% | -72.26% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.79 | N/A | |
| Max drawdown | 73.63% | 27.62% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.06% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly drop | 43.05% | 26.89% |
Business comparison
| Category | TSLA | SPCX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Tesla, Inc. | SpaceX |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Aerospace & Defense |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Electric vehicle manufacturer, energy storage provider, autonomous driving developer (FSD), and AI/robotics company (Optimus humanoid robot, Dojo supercomputer). | Vertically integrated space company operating reusable Falcon 9 and Starship launch vehicles, Starlink satellite broadband constellation, and Starshield government services. |
| Investor focus | Vehicle delivery growth, FSD autonomy progress, energy storage margins, Optimus robotics optionality, and robotaxi timeline. | Starlink subscriber growth, Starship development milestones, government launch contracts, and path to profitability across the combined business. |
TSLA strengths
- →Global EV brand with vertically integrated manufacturing, battery production, and charging network
- →Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and real-world driving data create a durable AI autonomy moat
- →Optimus humanoid robot and energy storage represent massive TAM optionality beyond core auto business
SPCX strengths
- →Dominant global launch market share with lowest cost-per-kilogram to orbit via reusable rockets
- →Starlink satellite broadband with millions of subscribers and growing enterprise and government revenue
- →Starship opens new markets in heavy-lift deployment, point-to-point transport, and deep space missions
Risks to watch — TSLA
- →EV price competition and margin pressure from Chinese automakers and legacy OEMs
- →Robotaxi and FSD regulatory approval timelines remain uncertain
- →Key-person risk and management attention split across Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and other ventures
Risks to watch — SPCX
- →Post-IPO valuation at $1.77 trillion prices in decades of flawless execution
- →Starship development carries technical and timeline risk that could weigh on sentiment
- →Key-person risk tied to Elon Musk's involvement across multiple companies
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