F vs TSLA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
F and TSLA represent the incumbent-transformer vs EV-native perspectives on the automotive electrification. Ford's F-Series profitability and commercial vehicle leadership provide earnings stability while Model e EV losses are absorbed. Tesla's manufacturing efficiency, FSD software, and Supercharger ecosystem create compounding advantages but at premium valuation vs Ford's value multiple. For ICE-to-EV transition exposure with current earnings and dividends, Ford; for pure EV leadership with autonomous driving optionality, Tesla.
F vs TSLA — Ford Motor Company (the legacy F-Series truck profits funding EV transition through Ford Model e and Lightning while maintaining dividend and Ford Pro commercial vehicle profitability) versus Tesla (the EV-native technology company with manufacturing efficiency, FSD autonomous software, and global Supercharger network competing with Cybertruck in Ford's electric truck segment).
F holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. F leads on both 1-year return (+12.52%) and forward P/E quality (7.25x vs 161.56x for TSLA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TSLA is growing revenue faster (25.50%), while F maintains the higher operating margin (1.88%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.30% for F and +11.85% for TSLA.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- value Ford's 4-5% dividend yield from F-Series truck profits while waiting for EV transition to reach profitability — income investors get paid while holding the EV transition story
- believe Ford Pro's commercial vehicle leadership (fleet trucks, Transit vans) creates durable, high-margin B2B relationships that Tesla doesn't serve
- prefer a lower-multiple traditional automaker ($5-7 P/E) with downside protection from F-Series ICE profits vs Tesla's premium growth valuation requiring perfect execution
- are comfortable with Model e EV losses, software capabilities behind Tesla, and UAW labor costs creating structural disadvantages in EV unit economics vs Tesla
- believe Tesla's manufacturing efficiency, FSD neural network, and Robotaxi represent sustainable advantages over legacy auto approaches — the technology gap creates compounding moats
- see Tesla's non-union labor cost advantage as a structural benefit that will compound as EV production scales — lower cost per vehicle than Ford's UAW contract obligations
- want EV pure-play exposure without legacy ICE business complexity — Tesla's energy division and FSD software are optionalities Ford simply doesn't have
- are comfortable with extreme valuation multiples, Cybertruck ramp challenges, and Musk-related brand risk in politically sensitive markets where brand perception has become polarized
| Metric | F | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 70.5 |
| AI ranki | #950 | #41 |
| Latest closei | $13.21 | $364.27 |
| 1M returni | -8.90% | +3.75% |
| 6M returni | +13.49% | -4.22% |
| 1Y returni | +12.52% | -12.61% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | F | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.25K (+12.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $8.74K (-12.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $17.52K (+75.2%) started 2021-09-20 | $14.97K (+49.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $31.41K (+214.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $264.81K (+2548.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | F | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $55.35B | $1.38T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.79 | 322.92 |
| Forward P/Ei | 7.25 | 161.56 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.05 | 13.03 |
| Analyst targeti | $15.73 | $390.09 |
| Target upsidei | +13.30% | +11.85% |
| Metric | F | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -3.80% | 25.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 430.80% | -3.00% |
| EPS growthi | +430.80% | -3.00% |
| FCF margini | -4.22% | +4.67% |
| Operating margini | 1.88% | 1.41% |
| Profit margini | -3.94% | 3.67% |
| ROIC proxyi | -18.25% | 4.67% |
| Return on equityi | -18.25% | 4.67% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.32% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 64.10% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.85 | 1.83 |
| Debt/equityi | 456.71 | 18.37 |
| Current ratioi | 1.09 | 1.94 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.88 | 1.35 |
Over the past year, F and TSLA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.26), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | F | TSLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +12.52% | -12.61% |
| CAGRi | +12.53% | -12.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.75% | 46.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.38 | -0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.63 | -0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.25% | 39.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.25% | 25.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.85% | 15.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.19% | 18.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.46% | 14.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.56% | 20.24% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +32.47% | +49.67% |
| CAGRi | +5.79% | +8.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.33% | 59.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.32 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.51% | 73.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.92% | 25.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 39.55% | 33.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 41.55% | 38.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.36% | 15.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.30% | 27.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +74.30% | +2548.08% |
| CAGRi | +5.72% | +38.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.51% | 59.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.77 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 1.16 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.77% | 73.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.92% | 25.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.22% | 25.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.69% | 30.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.36% | 21.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.73% | 43.05% |
| Category | F | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ford Motor Company | Tesla, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Auto Manufacturers | Auto Manufacturers |
| Core business | Ford Motor Company is a global automaker producing F-Series trucks (the best-selling US vehicle for 47 consecutive years), Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, and Transit/E-Transit commercial vans. Ford's segments include Ford Pro (commercial and fleet vehicles), Ford Blue (ICE consumer), and Ford Model e (EV division). Ford Pro is the most profitable segment — commercial truck and van operators pay premium for productivity and uptime. Ford Model e (EV division) has been losing billions annually as F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E production scales. | Tesla is the EV-native technology company producing Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X with Gigafactories across North America, Europe, and Asia. Tesla's advantages over Ford include vertically integrated manufacturing (no supplier markup), proprietary Supercharger network, FSD autonomous software, energy storage (Megapack, Powerwall), and manufacturing efficiency (highest revenue per employee in auto). Tesla's Cybertruck competes directly with Ford's F-150 Lightning in the electric pickup truck market. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Ford Pro's margin performance, Model e losses trajectory, F-Series ICE vs Lightning EV mix, and Ford's capital allocation decisions between ICE, EV, and commercial vehicles. | Investors focus on Cybertruck production ramp, F-150 Lightning competition, FSD autonomous driving progress, energy storage growth, and Robotaxi commercial launch. |
- F-Series truck dominance: the F-Series has been the best-selling US vehicle for 47 consecutive years — generating consistent, high-margin profits that fund EV transition while maintaining brand loyalty
- Ford Pro commercial vehicle leadership: fleet customers (construction, utilities, government) pay premium for Ford's commercial vehicles — Ford Pro is the highest-margin segment with differentiated B2B relationships
- F-150 Lightning brand transfer: Ford's F-150 brand credibility creates a natural bridge for ICE truck buyers to EV — Lightning buyers have a familiar product name, dealer relationship, and brand trust
- Manufacturing efficiency advantage over legacy OEMs: Tesla's gigacasting and manufacturing innovations reduce part counts dramatically vs Ford's multi-supplier assembly — lower cost per vehicle than legacy approaches
- No union labor cost disadvantage: Tesla's non-union workforce and equity-heavy compensation creates lower fixed labor costs vs Ford's UAW contract obligations
- Cybertruck competition with Lightning: Cybertruck's unconventional design has appeal to technology enthusiasts — while more controversial than Lightning, it targets a premium electric truck buyer segment
- Model e EV division losing billions: Ford's EV division has required massive investment — each EV sold has been losing thousands of dollars per unit, dragging consolidated earnings
- Software and connected vehicle capabilities behind Tesla: Ford's software platform and over-the-air update capabilities are improving but still behind Tesla's in user experience and update frequency
- Labor cost disadvantage vs non-union Tesla: Ford's UAW (United Auto Workers) labor costs are significantly higher than Tesla's non-union workforce — creating structural cost disadvantage in EV manufacturing
- Cybertruck production ramp challenges: Cybertruck's novel stainless steel design has created manufacturing complexity and ramp challenges — production volume has been below initial expectations
- Price premium over equivalent Ford products: Tesla's vehicles are priced at a premium to comparable Ford vehicles — in a competitive EV market, price sensitivity can limit Tesla's market expansion vs Ford's price-competitive approach
- Ford F-150 Lightning improving: Ford Lightning has genuine competitive specifications and existing F-Series dealer network — it doesn't require Tesla education for an existing truck buyer to choose Lightning
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.