LIVE
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) · Aerospace & Defense
$138.69
-13.83% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation · Aerospace & Defense
$541.82
-1.55% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
SPCX
1
NOC
1
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
SPCX N/A
NOC 51.1
1Y Return
SPCX N/A
NOC +5.29%
Fwd P/E
SPCX 159.99
NOC ✓17.90
Target Up.
SPCX ✓+74.67%
NOC +27.34%
Op. Margin
SPCX N/A
NOC 11.69%
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
SPCX vs NOC: SpaceX vs Northrop Grumman Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is a commercial space disruptor with Starlink and Falcon 9 as its revenue engines, while Northrop Grumman is a defense prime contractor anchored by the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and Sentinel ICBM — two of the most consequential US defense programs in decades. SPCX offers commercial space growth; NOC offers nuclear triad and stealth bomber program durability.
SPCX vs NOC is commercial space and broadband disruption versus generational defense programs — SpaceX wins if commercial space markets develop as expected; Northrop wins if B-21 and Sentinel production ramps deliver expected margins over multi-decade program lives.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
SPCX and NOC are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+74.67%) than for NOC (+27.34%).
Normalized 1Y performance
SPCX
NOC
Recent returns
SPCX
NOC
Analyst price targets & sentiment
SPCX · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$62.00
analyst high$800.00
analyst mean$242.22
current price$138.69
+74.7% upside to analyst mean
NOC · 23 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$477.00
analyst mean$687.14
current price$541.82
+27.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SPCX may suit investors who:
- →want commercial space and Starlink broadband growth at premium valuation
- →believe Starship transforms launch economics and opens new revenue markets
- →prefer growth over defense dividend income
- →want exposure to Elon Musk's space vision independently of Tesla
NOC may suit investors who:
- →want defense prime contractor exposure to the most consequential US weapons programs
- →value B-21 and Sentinel ICBM as multi-decade, single-program revenue anchors
- →prefer dividend income and buybacks from a profitable, backlog-driven defense business
- →want defense exposure to nuclear modernization and stealth aviation programs
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | N/A | 51.1 |
| AI rank | N/A | #442 |
| Latest close | $138.69 | $541.82 |
| 1M return | -13.83% | -1.55% |
| 6M return | N/A | -12.44% |
| 1Y return | N/A | +5.29% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $10.4K (+4.0%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $16.83K (+68.3%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $32.75K (+227.5%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.83T | $76.65B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 16.92 |
| Forward P/E | 159.99 | 17.90 |
| Price/Sales | 94.65 | 1.74 |
| EV/Revenue | 42.52 | 2.17 |
| Analyst target | $242.22 | $687.14 |
| Target upside | +74.67% | +27.34% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 15.40% | 4.40% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | 84.90% |
| EPS growth | N/A | +84.90% |
| FCF margin | N/A | +4.89% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 11.69% |
| Profit margin | -45.00% | 10.80% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | 28.51% |
| Return on equity | N/A | 28.51% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.74% |
| Beta | 5.79 | -0.10 |
| Debt/equity | 73.60 | 102.68 |
| Current ratio | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| Quick ratio | 1.09 | 0.98 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
NOC max drawdown35.42%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
NOC max wkly drop13.55%
5Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
NOC max drawdown35.42%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
NOC max wkly drop13.85%
10Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
NOC max drawdown36.38%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
NOC max wkly drop16.45%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -13.83% | +3.97% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +3.99% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 35.42% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 6.98% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 13.55% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -13.83% | +58.17% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +9.61% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 35.42% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 13.85% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -13.83% | +181.85% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +10.92% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 36.38% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 16.45% |
Business comparison
| Category | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) | Northrop Grumman Corporation |
| Sector | Aerospace & Defense | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Commercial launch, Starlink satellite broadband, spacecraft, and government space contracts. SpaceX is the primary launch provider for NASA's Commercial Crew Program and holds key DoD launch contracts. | Defense contractor specializing in the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, GBSD/Sentinel ICBM, space systems (James Webb Space Telescope, satellite programs), and advanced electronics for airborne and ground systems. |
| Investor focus | Starlink subscriber growth and revenue, Starship development, DoD and NASA contract wins, and long-term space infrastructure monetization. | B-21 Raider production ramp, Sentinel ICBM program, space systems backlog, and defense budget exposure. |
SPCX strengths
- →Dominant commercial orbital launch market share with reusable Falcon 9
- →Starlink generates broadband subscription revenue scaling independently of launch economics
- →Starship development positions SpaceX for lunar missions, Mars ambitions, and extreme heavy payload delivery
NOC strengths
- →B-21 Raider is the only strategic bomber program in production — a once-per-generation revenue opportunity for decades
- →Sentinel ICBM is the US nuclear triad modernization program — a long-duration government contract with no competitors
- →Space systems business includes stealth satellites, classified programs, and Space Launch System components
Risks to watch — SPCX
- →Starship FAA certification delays have repeatedly pushed commercial timelines
- →Post-IPO valuation demands exceptional multi-decade revenue growth
- →Government dependency on key launch and ISS contracts is significant revenue concentration
Risks to watch — NOC
- →B-21 cost overruns could pressure margins on a fixed-price development contract
- →Sentinel ICBM development costs have exceeded original estimates, increasing near-term execution risk
- →Defense budget uncertainty could affect program funding timelines
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