SPCX vs NOC: SpaceX vs Northrop Grumman Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is a commercial space disruptor with Starlink and Falcon 9 as its revenue engines, while Northrop Grumman is a defense prime contractor anchored by the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and Sentinel ICBM — two of the most consequential US defense programs in decades. SPCX offers commercial space growth; NOC offers nuclear triad and stealth bomber program durability.
SPCX vs NOC is commercial space and broadband disruption versus generational defense programs — SpaceX wins if commercial space markets develop as expected; Northrop wins if B-21 and Sentinel production ramps deliver expected margins over multi-decade program lives.
NOC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPCX has delivered stronger 3-month price return (+13.36% vs -3.67%), though NOC has the better forward P/E setup (17.92x vs 87.68x for SPCX). On fundamentals, SPCX is growing revenue faster (91.90%), while NOC maintains the higher operating margin (11.60%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for NOC (+18.62%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want commercial space and Starlink broadband growth at premium valuation
- believe Starship transforms launch economics and opens new revenue markets
- prefer growth over defense dividend income
- want exposure to Elon Musk's space vision independently of Tesla
- want defense prime contractor exposure to the most consequential US weapons programs
- value B-21 and Sentinel ICBM as multi-decade, single-program revenue anchors
- prefer dividend income and buybacks from a profitable, backlog-driven defense business
- want defense exposure to nuclear modernization and stealth aviation programs
| Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 32.3 | 50.0 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #970 |
| Latest closei | $148.62 | $499.63 |
| 1M returni | +3.58% | -5.95% |
| 3M returni | +13.36% | -3.67% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $8.34K (-16.6%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $14.21K (+42.1%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $30.2K (+202.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.85T | $77.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 17.33 |
| Forward P/Ei | 87.68 | 17.92 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.74 |
| EV/Revenuei | 160.10 | 2.15 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.32 | $647.14 |
| Target upsidei | +58.00% | +18.62% |
| Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 91.90% | 5.10% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -5.80% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -5.80% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +5.78% |
| Operating margini | -1.80% | 11.60% |
| Profit margini | -35.66% | 10.48% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 26.96% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 26.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.81% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 29.88% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | N/A | -0.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 31.21 | 95.35 |
| Current ratioi | 5.12 | 1.17 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.95 | 1.01 |
Over the past year, SPCX and NOC have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.03), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.66% | -16.59% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | -16.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 27.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | -0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | -0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 38.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 34.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 17.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 21.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 6.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 13.55% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +34.19% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +6.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 26.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 38.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 34.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 11.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 14.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 13.85% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +161.16% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +10.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 25.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 38.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 34.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 10.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 13.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 16.45% |
| Category | SPCX | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) | Northrop Grumman Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Commercial launch, Starlink satellite broadband, spacecraft, and government space contracts. SpaceX is the primary launch provider for NASA's Commercial Crew Program and holds key DoD launch contracts. | Defense contractor specializing in the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, GBSD/Sentinel ICBM, space systems (James Webb Space Telescope, satellite programs), and advanced electronics for airborne and ground systems. |
| Investor focus | Starlink subscriber growth and revenue, Starship development, DoD and NASA contract wins, and long-term space infrastructure monetization. | B-21 Raider production ramp, Sentinel ICBM program, space systems backlog, and defense budget exposure. |
- Dominant commercial orbital launch market share with reusable Falcon 9
- Starlink generates broadband subscription revenue scaling independently of launch economics
- Starship development positions SpaceX for lunar missions, Mars ambitions, and extreme heavy payload delivery
- B-21 Raider is the only strategic bomber program in production — a once-per-generation revenue opportunity for decades
- Sentinel ICBM is the US nuclear triad modernization program — a long-duration government contract with no competitors
- Space systems business includes stealth satellites, classified programs, and Space Launch System components
- Starship FAA certification delays have repeatedly pushed commercial timelines
- Post-IPO valuation demands exceptional multi-decade revenue growth
- Government dependency on key launch and ISS contracts is significant revenue concentration
- B-21 cost overruns could pressure margins on a fixed-price development contract
- Sentinel ICBM development costs have exceeded original estimates, increasing near-term execution risk
- Defense budget uncertainty could affect program funding timelines
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